Over at the WSJ, Iain Martin teases that the media always bill a party leader's speech as make-or-break and today's speech from Gordon Brown is no exception.
I doubt that there is anything that Brown could say this afternoon that will alter his party's opinion poll position for more than a few days. I'm not convinced speeches ever make much electoral difference. Ten times more important are economic conditions, the overwhelming sense of people wanting change and, of course, stories like the horrific tale of Fiona Pilkington.Cameron's speech next week does matter in terms of it being his last, best chance to tell the nation what kind of government he will lead. I doubt, however, that it will have a great impact on public opinion.
When was the last time a speech made a difference? My offering is David Cameron's speech of 2005 at the Blackpool Party Conference. Hot-on-the-heels of David Davis' flop-of-a-speech the Cameron performance transformed the Tory leadership race.
