Some thoughts on the German elections

The BBC was reporting even some hours after the exit polls were pointing strongly to a CDU - CSU - FDP coalition that its correspondent says "there is no great appetite for such a coalition and that people prefer the status quo."

At the German embassy "Wahlparty" ("election party") yesterday evening (pictured here), and unlike the BBC, few were surprised by the outcome. Many were relieved, especially with the end of the unloved Grand Coalition of the CDU/CSU and the SPD.

At the embassy, Baroness Neville-Jones and I flew the Conservative flag. Of Labour and LibDem politicians, there was no sign.

ConservativeHome carried an excellent post yesterday on why Angela Merkel and Germany would both benefit from a so-called black-yellow coalition (CDU/CSU and FDP together), and I wouldn't digress from that opinion, except to say that:

1. Diplomats at the embassy tonight are expecting little change from the new coalition in terms of policy. It will be more stable, but Merkel will still be in charge, and she will want to stay in the centre ground, even though her new coalition partners are now generally to the right of her on economic issues at least, not to the left.

2. Fundamentally, Merkel has faced some criticism about the German economy, but has done much better with the public finances. I have blogged before from the CDU Party Conference of how Germany did repair the roof when the sun was shining, eliminating the budget deficit in the good years of 2005 - 2007.

3. The result is not in itself a total success for the CDU and especially the CSU - their vote shares are actually down on 2005 - but it is an unmitigated disaster for the SPD, Labour's sister party. Not only is their vote share a record low, but they are now out of government entirely for the first time in eleven years. Their two left wing rivals - the Greens and the Left Party - both hit record highs. The CDU and CSU are certain to remain the leading centre right parties. The same cannot be said of the SPD on the left.

4. In the long term, the German political system is suffering from its PR voting system, and the five-party politics it has thrown up. This is especially true when there is one party of the five - the Left Party - who nobody else wants to team up with. I have blogged about this before here.

5. Despite our differences over the EPP, Conservative - CDU/CSU cooperation remains strong. Merkel in particular will welcome seeing some budgetary sense coming from London under a David Cameron government, after the months of denial from Gordon Brown. Meanwhile, everyone is looking forward to what I think will be a unique time next year when all four major EU countries are led from the Centre Right.