One of my favourite corners of the ConHome empire is the local government section edited by Councillor Harry Phibbs. Not being directly involved in local government (except as a tax payer), ConHome's coverage is a valuable source of information and analysis.
However, it occurs to me that there may be one aspect of the coverage I've been following too closely. Namely, the local by-election results. These, of course, matter to communities where they take place, especially if control of the relevant council is finely balanced. But what do the results tell us about the way things are going at a national level?
Less than one might think.
First of all, there are few things more local than a local by-election. Unlike the May elections that take place across thousands of council seats each year, local by-election campaigns are rarely reported by the national media and national politicians don't usually get involved.
Secondly, turn out can be very low, with many contests unrepresentative of the locality, let alone the country.
Thirdly, by-elections are often triggered by the resignation of the sitting councillor. There are few circumstances in which this much impresses the local electorate, which doesn't do much for the chances of the defending party.
Finally, with so few by-elections taking place on any given Thursday, the smaller parties have the opportunity to concentrate their resources in the hope of achieving a morale-boosting victory. This was a favourite party trick of the Lib Dems, though UKIP, the BNP and the Greens are now getting in on the act.
This doesn't mean that local by-election results should be ignored. For instance, the very fact that the minor parties are even capable of mounting these raids is not without significance. Nevertheless, when it comes to council elections it is the big picture that we should concentrate on. As I've written before, our performance in local government isn't just an indicator of Conservative recovery, it is where the revival began.
