At the end of last year, when Labour enjoyed a mini-recovery in the polls, I remained convinced that it was all over for Brown. Back in October I wrote:
Well, maybe 'relax' wasn't the right word and since I wrote that YouGov has had Labour and the Conservatives breach those limits by a little, briefly. But I think my analysis has been borne out, in spite of the massive ruptions caused by the expenses scandal: “Throwing out a government that has failed them is what voters do best… Unless they make some dreadful blunder, the Conservatives will be the next government.”
Could Cameron still commit such a dreadful blunder, and throw it all away? It's a vital question right now. Many in his parliamentary party are urging him to change tack in his response to the expenses crisis; they say it is time he showed them more support; they say he is being too hard on them, throwing them to the wolves.
It’s an understandable, utterly human reaction. If I was in their position, I would feel exactly the same. It must be vile to be lumped together as if all politicians are crooks or buffoons. They don't deserve that.
As a friend, Cameron should show much more sympathy for his tortured crew. But as a leader, that would be a huge electoral mistake.
About two weeks into the Telegraph revelations, I was having coffee in Portcullis House and a member of the shadow cabinet, one of those I most respect for their perspicacity, came up to me and said, “This thing isn’t having resonance beyond Westminster. I was out all weekend and not one person raised on the doorstep.” It was an amazing statement even then, but impossible now. Yet there are still MPs who don’t realise the electoral danger they are in. The assumption is that strong results for UKIP and other small parties a few weeks ago couldn't possibly be repeated in a general election, that people must behave differently when they are voting for a government in a first-past-the-post system, rather than for a talking shop under PR.
They are probably right, but it’s certainly not a safe assumption. Such soft thinking could lead to the kind of blunder that gives us a hung Parliament, as a greatly increased protest vote is spread unevenly and we get a series of unexpected outcomes. MPs must try to understand the stupefaction the rest of us felt when we saw the black-outs in the official receipts yesterday. That ‘our’ parliament would treat us with such contempt leads to a seething anger amongst the voters. Protesting “it’s not our fault” doesn’t elicit sympathy, just amazement at how far we’ve come. It’s sad to say it, but MPs must all accept their share of the horrid pain, even the innocent majority. It’s the only way back to respect.
The Conservative Party didn’t choose David Cameron because they loved his policies, nor because he’d be a good mate. They chose him because they saw him as a winner. On stage at a fundraiser on Wednesday night, when he firmly ruled out any change of tack on expenses, even as his colleagues were sending mental darts at him from all around the ballroom, he showed real courage. What’s easy in the studio must have been very hard face to face.
If they want to run this country, Conservative MPs will have to show they understand the people. If they want to be sure of holding on to their seats, they will have to accept the clarity and discipline of Cameron’s decision. There is no alternative.
