Brown survived and I am now persuaded that he will stay until the election on the basis of the "turkeys don't vote for Christmas" logic.
The reality is that whilst Brown is undoubtedly severely weakened, the choice Labour MPs have to make is between a year long inevitable death or a sudden one with an October election under a new leader. With every opportunity to get rid of him individual Cabinet ministers have decided the long game is the path they want to take. They have been persuaded it offers them the best chance of losing less badly when the election does eventually come. Seduced by larger salaries, enhanced individual status and no doubt the seductive logic of Peter Mandelson that with an economy showing vague signs of improvement (maybe!), the expenses scandal ended by robust and radical changes and ruthless Labour de-selections a whole new perspective will emerge on the Labour government and Gordon Brown by the late autumn.
So when the diminished Gordon Brown faces his backbenchers at the weekly meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party on Monday evening I suspect the same calculation will have been made by them. Following Mandelson and Milliband's failure to back James Purnell on Friday it would be absurd if they reversed their decisions and withdrew their support on account of c. 50- 70 disgruntled ex-Blairite ministers and "usual suspect" Left wingers signing an email on Monday. Furthermore, given the complex rules governing any contest it would be impossible to mount a challenge without a credible serious challenger from outside the Cabinet. None exists. And with an inevitable immediate wipe out at a general election under any new leader I don't believe it will happen. Brown will survive in a semi-comatose like state; Mandelson controlling the life support machine.
However, the conclusions the Conservative Party should draw from the last weeks of intoxicating political drama are clear. We need to remain focused on communicating our agenda for Government. We need to rise above the grubby excitement of Labour's Westminster farce and strive to give the country positive reasons to vote for Conservatives rather than rely on people voting against Labour.
We need a big majority to deliver lasting change - power without purpose is pointless. That power is found in a strong mandate not a big protest vote. Yes, winning Devon and Somerset, Derbyshire, Staffordshire, Lancashire and Nottinghamshire and 38% share of the national vote is very encouraging. But it is never enough. To be a successful government we need to be hungry for every vote, every "safe" Labour seat, relentless in our pursuit of a mandate to govern and bring lasting positive change undoing the damage wreaked over the past 12 years of Labour.
Only by convincing the electorate of our radical and bold plans to reform the education system in particular and public services in general; by demonstrating our determination to get to grips with appalling public finances; our visceral commitment to governing on the basis of reliance on individual freedom, family-centred policies and community values rather than a ludicrous reliance on regulations, government control and an ever expanding state (and debt burden!) will we be able to win well.
So tactically, it would be best to leave our discredited Prime Minister to Mandelson's loving care and focus on continuing to lead the debate on the reform of politics and Parliament and finding ways of generating positive votes to endorse our vision for Government.We have a long way to go. Tactical manoeuvrings and Labour infighting helps. But patience, hard work and a passion to capture the public's imagination for a radical agenda for reform will be what enables us not just to win but to win well.
