Opinion polls leads of nearly 20%, possible Conservative majorities of 170, journalists are only interested in what the Conservatives have to say... well it's all in the bag isn't it? Er . . . not quite. As every marginal seat candidate will tell you, history teaches that poll leads tend to tighten towards elections, we should take nothing for granted and we must not be complacent. Above all we must avoid the smug triumphalism that cost Labour in 1992.
We are entering a potentially dangerous time. The media are looking at the Conservative plans in detail now. It could be tempting for some to get over confident, get carried away and say daft things. Things that would be seized on by our opponents. It could be tempting for campaigners to work less hard as they think we've won already. And we have an important set of elections coming up - low turnout elections where door knocking and getting out the vote will make a big difference and ensure our momentum continues.
I don't want to sound like Cassandra or a party pooper but we do need to keep our feet rooted firmly on the ground and beware triumphalism!
