I predict that Nigel Farage will lose MEPs in June's elections but one factor might help him.
The broadcasters are obliged to take into account the fact that UKIP came third in the last European elections - ahead of the Liberal Democrats.
For the broadcasters it is an art rather than a science. They also take into account (1) electoral performance since those elections (not great), (2) that UKIP has not stayed united since 2004 and (3) UKIP did not perform uniformly well across the UK in those European Elections. UKIP did most well in England and can expect to get more coverage during English-only broadcasts than say in BBC Scotland's coverage of the European Elections.
UKIP and all broadcasters get a chance to make their representations for share of coverage during presentations to the Broadcasters' Liaison Group. That Group is part of the basis for individual broadcasters separately deciding how they set editorial guidelines and also the number of Party Election Broadcasts for each individual party.
