Looking through the comment threads on ConservativeHome it is clear that quite a few of our readers either vote for the UK Independence Party or are tempted to do so, especially at European elections. As an arch-eurosceptic, indeed eurocynic, I thought I might explain why I am not with them.
I have been in the past. In the run-up to the 1999 European election I attended a rally hosted by friends. There I met the now leader of UKIP, Nigel Farage, and listened to various speeches. I wasn't wholly convinced - some ludicrous claims were made about UKIP imminently becoming a major force in Westminster - but I did share their view that Britain should leave the European Union, and decided that voting UKIP in an election based on proportional representation would not increase the chance that a federalist would win - which is a major objection many eurosceptics have to voting UKIP in Westminster elections.
It seemed to me that William Hague's mantra "In Europe, not run by Europe" was fatuous. First of all, Europe and the European Union are two quite distinct things. I was adamant that Britain could negotiate a free trade agreement with the EU and still be able to exert influence. We would be freed from unwelcome legislation emanating from a backward and economically sclerotic institution. We should be able to scrutinise, hire and fire our lawmakers.
So what's changed? Well in one sense, not much. I still say that Britain would thrive outside the EU. We could sign free trade agreements with other countries too, and open our markets to Africa, South America and Asia (which is vital if people there are ever to be lifted out of grinding poverty).
And I don't believe for a moment that ministers and officials in the EU would refuse to pick up the phone to a British Prime Minister. Liberated from formal structures, our influence on EU legislation might actually increase.
The European Union is necessarily, invariably and unavoidably undemocratic. It is far too large, and its practices opaque. It pursues the wrong policies. I loathe it.
I have come to love the Conservative Party, but not unconditionally. There are circumstances in which I would vote against it. I think I might well have voted for Oona King if I had lived in Bethnal Green and Bow in 2005, to try to prevent George Galloway winning. If I knew a Tory candidate to be corrupt, I would not vote for them. Policy could change things too. It would put a dangerous strain on my support for the Conservatives if the front bench advocated British entry into the euro, for example.
So why am I not tempted to vote UKIP at the next European election (safe in the knowledge that it will be conducted under PR) to send a message that I, like an undoubtedly large number of Britons, want us to get out of the whole mess? Might that not be a good way to make the Conservative Party come around? Couldn't it be an act of loyalty - if not to David Cameron then at least to true, core conservative principles?
I won't be doing that.
It's not just because I won't support a party that helps elect federalists to the UK Parliament, or that I have a very high regard for my local MEP Daniel Hannan. It's also because in ten years UKIP have achieved the square root of sod all.
UKIP are a negligible political force. Their showing at the recent London and (other) local elections was pathetic. They currently have just nine MEPs. The Conservatives have 27. Of course it could be worth fighting for more UKIP MEPs if there was reason to suppose they would achieve something. But history is not on their side. In fact UKIP MEPs have worked directly against British interests.
In February 2006 French and Spanish MEPs sought to scrap the Shetland Box - a protected fishing zone for British boats. Although the Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems all voted to protect the Shetland Box, UKIP voted to scrap it. That is appalling.
In March 2006, for reasons passing understanding, UKIP opposed legislation to protect the names of regional food products such as Newcastle Brown Ale and Stilton cheese. Labour, the Lib Dems and the Conservatives backed it. Is that the action of a party that supports British identity?
UKIP lost both those votes, thank goodness. They are utterly ineffective. In ten years, what have UKIP done to advance the cause of Britain leaving the EU? What have they done to prevent the worst excesses of the European Union in the meantime? Nothing. Rather, their MEPs have often indulged in those excesses.
Ashley Mote - who on being bounced out of UKIP aligned himself with parties like the French National Front - was jailed for nine months for fraud. Tom Wise (who has had the UKIP whip withdrawn) claimed £36,000 a year for a researcher and pocketed £30,000 of it (although he claimed he was keeping it for his researcher and has since paid money back to the European parliamentary authorities).
On a more prosaic note, UKIP's last leader, Roger Knapman, hired Polish labourers, despite UKIP having opposed Polish entry into the EU.
MEPs (including Robert Kilroy-Silk) and many party members have resigned in exasperation at UKIP. In fairness, although there have been accusations that some UKIP players have fascist sympathies, I have seen enough in politics to know that such claims can have no foundation at all.
But there is one simple reason not to vote UKIP. They don't do what they say they'll do, and have done more harm than good.