Gordon's hubris to nemesis

Those who do not learn from (economic) history are condemned to repeat it. One of the conclusions offered by IFS Director Robert Chote at this morning's Green Budget was that the path of the public finances over the last twelve years and predicted over the next five is 'uncannily similar to that trodden by the Conservatives from 1979 to 1997.' In other words, from deficit to surplus in the first three years in office, then eight years of 'fiscal drift masked by economic overconfidence.' In year 12 'hubris gave way to nemesis' as the country plunged into recession. Despite the attempts at even-handed comparisons, however, Chote's presentation went on to show significantly higher levels of public sector net debt under this Government than in the Conservative years (higher, in fact, than at any time since the inter-war years) - and that's without Northern Rock and all the other 'off-balance sheet liabilities' such as PFI and public sector pensions. The overall message was clear enough: Brown's hubristic claims to have re-invented the economic cycle and abolished 'boom and bust' has led this country to the biggest bust of all.