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Even though I had been suggesting since February that the budget deficit might rise to exceed £100bn, from July I started recommending that we position ourselves to favour a borrowing-funded tax cut, since Gordon Brown would need to do that in the Autumn.  In September I firmed up this recommendation, offering an explicit figure of £30bn.  At each stage, here, my suggestions met with scepticism or even outright derision or claims that I could not be serious.  Reality has now caught up - the Telegraph is reporting the IMF calling for tax cuts in Britain of £30bn.  Like everyone in my profession, I get lots of things wrong.  But that doesn't mean you should pay us no attention.