Louise Bagshawe made some fine points in her post yesterday, but here are several reasons why Obama's win won't benefit British Conservatives:
(1) Gordon Brown will benefit politically from hobnobbing with the post-Bush White House and from all the photo ops he will have with Obama. He will take every opportunity to curry favour with the new president and to portray himself as Barack's new best friend. This will enhance his standing on the world stage, and increase his own influence vis-a-vis the global financial crisis.
(2) The grassroots ties between Democrats and Labour remain very strong despite Blair's support for Bush over Iraq. The Labour Goverment will work hard to keep senior British Conservatives, especially Cameron, away from the White House and U.S. Executive Branch. If McCain had won this would have been a lot harder for the Brownites to pull off.
(3) Obama could well end up being the most left-wing president in American history. He has little to gain politically with his own liberal supporters by cozying up to British Tories.
(4) On Europe, the Democrats are traditionally far more supportive of the European Project than the Republicans. The Bush White House hasn't been great on European policy, but at least it was open to advice and suggestions from the big conservative think tanks - Heritage, AEI and CATO - who are all Eurosceptic in outlook. An Obama White House will be advised heavily by pro-EU groups on the liberal left such as Brookings, as well as by CSIS and the Council on Foreign Relations. Obama will see the cultivation of ties with Brussels, Paris and Berlin as top priorities.
(5) Obama is likely to naively support the creation of a European Union defence identity within NATO, including the establishment of a European Army, especially with pressure from Nicolas Sarkozy, and the endorsement of new Defence Secretary John Hutton. This would be disastrous for British interests, and could ultimately destroy the NATO alliance.
(6) Obama is a protectionist whose anti-market views are abhorrent to British Conservatives. He is no free trader, and you can forget about him challenging protectionist rackets such as the Common Agricultural Policy.
