On Tuesday evening, I was delighted to have the opportunity to attend a timely and fascinating lecture by Jonathan S. Paris, a London-based adjunct fellow of the Hudson Institute, on the foreign policies we can expect from the Obama administration.
Aside from discussing the incoming administration’s likely approach to Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan, Paris offered a range of varied and interesting observations:
- Barack Obama is a law professor. He will govern as one
As a law professor, Obama is well versed in the art of weighing up issues and arguments methodologically. In taking decision he will draw on the advice of a wide range of advisors led by his newly-appointed Chief of Staff Rahm Emmanuel and Vice-President Joe Biden. Unlike the Bush administration, whose foreign policy outlook was shaped by a small cabal of advisors who wilfully ignored the State Department, policy formation will not be “top down” but rather “bottom up”. In a similar way to which President John F. Kennedy brought a set of celebrated Harvard academics to his White House, Obama’s administration will be greatly influenced by his friends and former colleagues from the Chicago political circuit.
- Global realities trump American ambitions
Following costly wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, American’s ability to act decisively in international conflicts has been greatly weakened. Coupled with the global economic downturn and seemingly unstoppable decline in American manufacturing strength, such realities will have a much greater influence on the Obama administration’s foreign policy than under any of the past four Presidencies.
His administration will continue to operate a “subtle, supple and below the radar” approach to many international crisis but will find itself less able in the coming years to engage in military conflicts or provide vast financial stability packages such as that afforded to the government of Georgia earlier this year.
- Cooperation does not just mean the United Nations
It is a mistake to believe that, because the approach of the Obama administration will be characterised by wider cooperation in foreign policy matters, that the United Nations will experience any real gain in stature or influence during the next four years. From a Security Council which excludes many of the world’s leading powers to an at times laughably sclerotic General Assembly, the UN remains a deeply dysfunctional organisation.
In seeking to find answers to problem such as climate change and regional conflicts the Obama administrations likely to form ad hoc “coalitions of the willing” to address individual problems. The variety of groups operating in a fashion similar to the G8 and G20 will grow.
- Change vs realpolitik
Despite the strong majorities held by the Democrats in the House of Representatives and Senate, the very nature of the organisation of the American government means that real “change” cannot be brought about overnight – or even over four years.
Any fundamental changes the Obama administration may seek to bring about on a policy level are likely to be met with powerful opposition from the Republican Party (who appear likely to continue to hold the 41 Senate seats needed to filibuster legislative proposals), special interest groups and conservative elements of the Democratic party.
On the environment, whilst the core Democratic supporters who catapulted Obama from relative obscurity to the Presidency will hope for swift and decisive action on the issue of climate change, the global economic crisis will force this issue to the President-elect’s diplomatic backburner.
- No new NATO enlargement
The Obama administration is likely to forgo the symbolism of NATO expansion pursued by the Clinton and Bush administrations and instead focus on the strengthening of the internal democratic structures of countries like Ukraine which share their immediate borders with Russia.
In dealing with Russia, the key goal of the Obama administration will be that of preserving the democratic gains that have taken place since 1991. Antagonising the newly-confident post-Cold War Russia by expanding NATO’s sphere of influence along its immediate border would be likely to only undermine such gains. The option of future enlargement will not, however, be taken off the table so as to avoid projecting an impression of America weakness.
- The “Egypt problem”
Obama’s term in office may well see the return of the “Egyptian problem” - which dominated diplomatic discourse in the mid-1950s - to the global political agenda.
President Mohammed Hosni Mubarak has recently entered his eightieth year and has been dogged by corruption allegations and rising unpopularity amongst the Egyptian people. A change in Egyptian leadership, probably through Mubarak’s passing, could well deprive the United States of an ordinarily reliable ally at a very sensitive time.
While the President-elect’s ‘Egypt policy’ appears far from set in stone, its formation will be an urgent priority for the incoming administration.
Blessed with a persuasive and patrician style, the silver-tongued, sharp-witted and smartly-dressed Mr Paris would not, I’m sure, be offended if I was to say that the abiding feeling I took away from his lecture was of an Obama foreign policy built more on an ideological willingness to listen and impeccable PR credentials than a real knowledge of – or plan for – how to solve the problems in our world.
Could that, in itself, be enough? Time will tell.
