Last month I paid a first visit to Russia as part of a parliamentary delegation. It was instructive to learn from leading figures in the Duma, and from British businessmen in Moscow of the Russian government’s perceived hardening attitude to the West and the media perception that another East-West Cold War is beckoning.
Whatever the rights and wrongs over Georgia this is no time for an ever deeper schism to develop in relations between Russia and the West. We need to build bridges not least given the overriding threat of Islamic fundamentalism. The global uncertainty caused by Islamic extremism and nuclear threats from countries such as Iran calls for the re-establishment of what had hitherto been relatively good relations in recent years between NATO and Russia and China.
What has happened over the summer in Georgia has been likened to Russia’s invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968. In truth international affairs have changed beyond recognition since the days of the USSR. For one we need to understand that Russia’s mentality is less European, more oriental, as regards “face” and “pride”. After the collapse of communism in 1989 and the USSR two years later, Russia has regarded with shame its downgraded role within the international community. For any superpower to lose its place must be intensely difficult for its leaders and people alike – so it has proved within recent years in Russia. As President, Mr Putin has succeeded in re-establishing Russia’s pride and that explains his overwhelming great popularity.
The relationship between Georgia and Russia has been fractious since the advent of the break-up of the Soviet Union. I am sure it has not been helped recently by the news that Georgia has been making aggressive overtures to join NATO - a body that still represents to Russia a fundamental threat to its sovereignty and security. Allied to the recent announcements that NATO defence shields are being deployed in neighbouring Poland it should be understandable to everyone that Russia has good cause to feel under threat.
The launch of major military attacks by the Georgian president, Mikhail Saakashvili, in August on militia in the semi-autonomous state of South Ossetia now looks badly thought through to the point of capricious. From his recent comments he clearly expected more unequivocal support from Western nations (and in particular the United States) once he had sent his troops into the region. President Saakashvili was probably right to anticipate such help as he had sent 2,000 Georgian troops to help the Allied Forces in Iraq but apart from the US airlifting back those troops little military help was forthcoming. Russian armed forces were able to crush any opposition in South Ossetia and deploy themselves at will in other parts of Georgia.
Understandably many British politicians have berated Russia for invading a sovereign state and it is important that we show support for Georgia at this time. But our language should be diplomatic, especially when one considers how recent bellicose utterances have been a precursor to the long running wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
I have made it clear in a recent parliamentary debate that I believe it is in Britain’s interests for us to forge ever closer ties with Russia and many of those other sovereign nations which comprised the Soviet Union until 1991. However, inviting all such ex-USSR countries to join NATO is the wrong way forward.
Article 5 of NATO’s constitution obliges all its members to regard a military attack on one member as an attack on all. For that reason we should extend membership of NATO only sparingly. It is also worth observing that we should not consider all former USSR states in the same way. Dismissively in the UK we regard “Eastern Europe” as a homogenous group of countries which were communist between 1945 and 1989. In truth these countries have a wide variety of historical stories to tell – it is not helpful to discuss Georgia, Ukraine and Estonia (to name but three) as if their interests were either interchangeable or identical.
Until a new American President takes office in January 2009 it is likely that a number of countries will flex their diplomatic muscles to test the West’s potential uncertainty with a retiring US Presidential team. We need to be on our guard during this time.
I do not believe that the deterioration in East-West relations has extended far enough to constitute the start of a new Cold War. However, we should make every effort to work with Russia going forward because global security demands such an alliance when there are so many parts of the world where stability remains so fragile.
