1. Republican delegates left St. Paul much happier and enthusiastic than they had expected to be. Though John McCain has never been the darling of the Republican base, they think that he can win. Sarah Palin wowed the Party's activists and aroused massive public attention. Her acceptance speech drew a TV audience only slightly smaller that Obama's (despite being on fewer networked channels) and significantly bigger than Biden's.
2. On pretty well every objective criterion, this ought to be the Democrats' year. The Republicans have held the White House for two terms and their incumbent President is hugely unpopular. The economy is in trouble. Democrat registrations have boomed while Republican registrations have fallen by one million since 2004. Obama's success in fundraising is enabling him to out spend his opponent. Every pundit expects the congressional elections to produce bigger Democrat majorities in both Houses and no President has ever been elected who did not add at least some seats to his Party's tally in one or other House. Republican strategists say privately that this is a tough election in which they are the underdogs.
3. Against that background, it is remarkable that the polls show the Presidential race as being so close. Probably, no-one but McCain, with his record of independent thinking, straight talk and transparent integrity could have made this happen. To win, he has to reach out to independents and Democrats and Sarah Palin must not only inspire the base but win over blue collar families who don't think of themselves as ardent Republicans.
4. The economy is the dominant issue in the minds of voters. In one recent poll, 43 per cent rated the economy as their top issue, compared with 15 per cent saying Iraq, 14 per cent energy and 11 per cent healthcare.
5. Energy is an issue that is connecting economic and national security concerns. McCain and Palin both highlighted the need to drill offshore and to develop nuclear and renewable resources in order to stop spending billions of dollars to buy oil "from people who don't like us very much".
6. The Republicans face a major strategic challenge in making their Party more representative of an increasingly diverse nation. The Democrats have been quick to point out that only 1.5 per cent of GOP Convention delegates were black. McCain needs to emulate George W Bush' success in winning Hispanic votes.
7. Internet campaigning will be more important in 2008 than in any previous election. One Republican strategist said that $1 buys 3 mail shots, 25 automatic phone calls, 62 TV impressions or 142 web impressions. Communications planning involves how to communicate through bloggers as well as through newspapers and broadcasters.
