In my last post, written the morning after McCain announced his selection of Palin, I argued it was a “huge, unnecessary, gamble”. Many readers had a different view which, or course, I fully respect – these online debates is what makes CH so successful. So, post the Republican Convention, what do I think now?
The convention reminded me why in the Republican primaries, I had backed McCain from day 1: his patriotism for America, and the knowledge that he will face down the rogues that menace the free world; his independent streak, where he has proven to be a man of principle, with a history of opposing his own party on key issues (immigration, torture, climate change) ; and his support for limited government and free trade. For me, unquestionably, he is the right choice for America.
But the convention also reminded me why I think Palin was an “unnecessary gamble”. McCain has been virtually neck and neck in the polls with Obama for weeks in an election year where almost everything favours the opposition (weak economy, huge unpopularity of Bush and the tarnished GOP brand). This proves that McCain was the right choice. He was on a positive trajectory and in the weeks to come he would have won over more and more floating voters and, in my opinion, the Presidency.
The Palin pick has no doubt energised the GOP base beyond anyone’s imagination and I am sure that will result in a huge lift in campaigning by many Republican activists. But will these extra votes be enough to off-set the votes of independents that McCain was poised to get, but now such voters are put off by Palin for the very same reasons that the base is turned on? Also, who was the base going to vote for in any case – Obama-Biden? Don’t get me wrong. Although I don’t back the Palin pick, I still rate her. She could absolutely be America’s first female President one day. But that still does not make her the right pick for McCain in 2008.
Obviously, the McCain campaign must have concluded that it was on a negative trajectory and, as a result, opted for the double-or-nothing outcome of the Palin pick. I know many of you will continue to disagree, but I still think it was an unnecessary gamble. For someone like me that has backed McCain from the beginning, his Palin decision hurts.
In any case, what’s done is done. Now to making the most of it. No question Palin delivered a great speech, with flair, confidence and poise. It had so much red meat in it that, as one delegate said, his cholesterol levels rocketed. (McCain’s convention speech, on the other hand, was dull and boring – even John Major could have done a better job!) She did have the advantage of an excellent speech writing team, and a crowd that loved her. The real battle will now taker place on TV and the debates. In the one VP debate, Palin should beat Biden. In the three far more important Presidential debates, McCain has to be very careful – Obama is a far stronger communicator and quicker thinker. This is where McCain could really slip up. Debates have changed the outcome of presidential elections before. If McCain sticks to his central themes of change but not too much change, patriotism, national security, character, lower taxes and limited government, he should do well.
Now that the conventions are over, the race is in its most crucial phase. McCain can still win, despite Palin. Good luck McCain.
