Many thanks to Alex Deane for pointing out the conclusions of the most recent (and perhaps even final) Evans-Novak Political Report. As usual, Novak has hit the nail on the head.
Running in an environment as politically toxic for the Republicans as we see at present, Obama should be scoring a run-away poll lead. Asked to choose between the Republicans and Democrats on a generic congressional ballot, a poll released yesterday showed registered voters preferring Democratic candidates by an 18% margin - 53% to 35%. Recent polling numbers appear to point to the strength of the John McCain candidacy and the comparative weakness of the Obama campaign.
In polls taken over the past couple of days, Obama’s numbers are nothing remarkable. In fact, in states narrowly won by John Kerry in 2004, they’re a cause for concern.
In Oregon, won by 52/48 by Kerry, Obama leads by only 3.5%. Interestingly, whilst Obama leads by 15% amongst voters younger than him, McCain leads by 9% amongst those in between his and Obama’s age. I’ll leave it to you to predict which age range is more likely to actually show up at the polls.
In the critical battleground of Florida, McCain leads 47.5% to Obama’s 44%. Sure, this lead may be statistically insignificant but it’s an improvement on the 47% to 41% lead held by John Kerry on 12th August 2004. Similarly, in New Hampshire, where Kerry recorded a 49/42 lead this time four years ago, Obama records a 3% lead. In Michigan and Pennsylvania, Kerry states by 3% and 2% respectively, Obama holds narrow leads of 2% and 5%.
Do these polls really mean anything? No, it’s far too early to say who is going to win the election.
One thing they do tell us, however, is that we have a red-hot race on our hands. Could somebody let the British media know?
