I woke up this morning to learn of McCain’s pick of Palin as his veep candidate. Like many other CH readers, despite following this race closely, it came as a big surprise. After having digested it a little, my conclusion is that this is huge, unnecessary, gamble for McCain. I hope I’m wrong on this one, but my gut feel is that this could cost him the election.
No question that Palin seems to be a great gal in many ways. She seems to have done a superb job in Alaska over the last two years (with 80% plus approval ratings); has taken on many vested interests (including those in her own party); seems to have a lovely family; and shows connectivity with ordinary Americans (“hockey mom”). She will no doubt appeal to the conservative and religious base of the GOP, with her family values, NRA activism, church going, anti-same sex marriage and anti-abortion views.
She also has the advantage of not being seen as a Washington DC insider. Alaska is about as far from the Capitol as you can be. She will help rejuvenate the tarnished GOP brand, and make Democrat attacks on McCain as a third term Bush presidency that much weaker.
But (you knew the “but” was coming), she has significant negatives that could outweigh the positives:
- Most significantly, her selection has driven a truck through the Republican’s central argument that Obama is too inexperienced to be President. This is not to suggest that Obama is any more experienced than she is. At best, her “experience” is really no better than Obama’s. This is of all the more importance given that she could be a heartbeat away from the Presidency. I am not convinced that American’s are ready to take this gamble (already tried and regretted that once with Bush-Quayle). When America is fighting two wars, Russia is sabre-rattling, China is growing stronger and ever more unpredictable, Pakistan is disintegrating, Iran is threatning to pulverise Israel, and the US economy is entering its most serious downturn since the end of WW2, are American’s really going to put Palin a heartbeat away from the Presidency? There will be many floating voters that might have gone for a McCain/Somebody-More-Experienced-than-Palin ticket, but not a McCain-Palin ticket. At least, as Ramesh Ponnuru says in jest in his National Review blog “we know that Palin will be ready for that 3 a.m. phone call: She’ll already be up with her baby.” Whats-more, on the national stage Americans will have had 4 years and 2 books to get used to the inexperienced Obama; with Palin they will have just 2 months.
- Given the lack of experience, and the availability of other high-calibre running mates with more experience, there will be many Americans that will wonder if the main qualification for which McCain picked Palin was that she was a woman. Obama’s qualifications to be President should have nothing to do with his race, nor should Palin’s to do with her sex – but that’s not what she implied in her speech yesterday. Furthermore, given her strong conservative views, who says that Hillary's anti-Obama female supporters will gravitate to her? Isn't it more likely they just won't vote?
- Its also troubling that the Republican-led state legislature in Alaska has seen it fit to appoint an independent investigator to determine if Palin acted inappropriately in a matter involving her brother-in-law and official authorities. My gut feel is that she probably has not done anything wrong, but why should McCain take the risk? I sure hope McCain’s vetting team has done a thorough job.
- She neuters McCain’s appeals to independent liberal minded voters, one of McCain’s greatest personal strengths (very much seen as more liberal than his own party). She will be seen as too far to the right on key issues such as gun control, abortion and same-sex marriage.
- Lastly, where’s the chemistry? McCain met Palin for the first time just 6 months ago and, up until last week, he has met her just one other time. Given this, and the generational gap, what’s to say that these guys are going to get on? Forget ruling together, can they campaign successfully together?
McCain’s selection of Palin, at best, is a huge unnecessary gamble (perhaps telling us something important about how he makes decisions). He would have been in a stronger position with Romney or Pawlenty by his side. At worst, McCain has handed the Democrat’s a winning hand.
