The most recent edition of the ever-excellent Evans-Novak report (now, sadly, without Bob Novak, who has retired due to ill-health) has this very good summary of the Presidential race in the US:
Sen. John McCain, this week, should be increasingly confident of his chances in this election that he has no business winning. Running against a popular, rhetorically skilled opponent in a disastrous year for the GOP, McCain is hanging on in national polls and the Electoral College count. The closeness of the race could reflect a deep unease about Sen. Barack Obama among Democrats and independents.