It's nearly bedtime for me in Los Angeles and it seems increasingly likely that Senator Joe Biden will be Barack Obama's running mate. Many Brits will remember Biden for plagiarising Neil Kinnock's 'I am the first person in a thousand generations' speech but he's a considerable figure who will bring foreign policy weight to the Democrat ticket. Senator Biden (recommended today by David Brooks) will also help Obama reach Catholics and the voters of Pennsylvania.
The Dems will now enjoy a week of publicity and Team McCain is playing the expectations game by briefing that all of the attention will put Obama 15% ahead by this time next week. Anything less and they'll claim he underperformed. Obama currently leads by 1.4% in the RCP average. Only twice in recent history has a candidate received a 15% or more boost from his Convention: George Bush Snr in 1988 and Bill Clinton in 1992. The graph below - clipped from The New Republic - compares recent bounces:
They appear to be getting smaller. It's the debates that matter more now.
