Well, those who accused me (and Evans/Novak) of wishful thinking last time around will be pleased to see the latest round-up from Human Events. New Mexico tentatively moves into the Obama column on the latest polling, and it's worth remembering that E/N are consistently favouring McCain more than most pollsters in their analysis. As even they say,
McCain has good reason to worry—indeed, more worrisome than his slight deficit in the Electoral College is the closeness in traditional Red States such as Montana, North Dakota, and Virginia. If he is at a cash disadvantage, he can't afford to play defense in so many states
On the other hand, more comfortingly, I'd agree with both of these points
The major X-factor in this contest is Obama's race, combined with his age—as well as the lack of exposure of his liberalism. Those question marks means he cannot be confident in any state where he is currently polling significantly below 50%, however low McCain is.
Former Rep. Bob Barr (Libertarian) is currently registering near 10% in many states. If history is a guide, this will drop quite a bit by Election Day, to below 1% in many states.
To which I'd add that those trending Lib. voters are (1) politically active people much more likely to vote than non-registered voters, and (2) are still - big government Republicanism notwithstanding - more likely to vote GOP IMHO.
So - it's all still to play for. Like it or not, let's now watch an increasingly negative campaign against Obama gear up...