I've just arrived in Washington DC and the talk of the town is this story in Spiegel. Iraq's PM appears to have endorsed Obama's plan for a sixteen month withdrawal plan from Iraq. If true then McCain's message that Obama is taking a risk with the security of Iraq becomes a much harder sell.
Marc Ambinder agrees:
"This could be one of those unexpected events that forever changes the way the world perceives an issue. Iraq's Prime Minister agrees with Obama, and there's no wiggle room or fudge factor. This puts John McCain in an extremely precarious spot: what's left to argue? to argue against Maliki would be to predicate that Iraqi sovereignty at this point means nothing."
Yes, Obama was wrong about the surge but my guess is that Americans will decide their vote on 'what next in Iraq' (as well as the economy etc). One Republican strategist emails Ambinder: "We're f**ked" but the video below suggests that US generals on the ground in Iraq are much less keen on a fixed timetable: