So far - and quite understandably - the debate on the Zimbabwe elections here is focusing on the run-up to the poll itself and attempts to ensure that some form of free and fair poll occurs. But what if, as seems likely, the election is indeed rigged in Robert Mugabe's favour? What should the response of the international community be?
Having not seen much thinking about this, with the exception of this excellent CentreRight blog today, let me posit a potential policy for debate. In my view, the UK needs to adopt a policy towards Zimbabwe that champions a democratic future. As a steward of the democratic ideal, the UK has a duty to adopt an assertive approach towards violations of popular sovereignty. Legitimate governments can only be produced by legitimate elections consisting of a fair poll and accurate results. No distinction should be made between a government elected on the basis of electoral fraud and intimidation, and one that rises to power as a result of a coup d’état.
So now let's be provocative. If the Mugabe regime
is returned to
power as a result of proven vote rigging or electoral fraud, Britain
should refuse to recognise it as the country’s legitimate
government, and encourage the USA, African countries and other members
of the European Union to do the same. This won't be easy - the EU
already showed its craven approach to Mugabe by including him in the
EU-Africa summit held last year. And denial of recognition would
include a mass diplomatic roll-back, an increase in sanctions on the
regime itself, seizure of assets and pressure on countries trading with
the regime itself (such as China) to desist. Nor should this process be time-limited - the policy of isolation should continue as long as the regime continues in power else it is purely a gesture for show rather than in seriousness.
But regardless of the difficulties, the people of Zimbabwe have toiled in their struggle for the representative government they deserve for far too long. By making it clear that derailing the democratic process entails dramatic consequences, the promise of a better future for the people of Zimbabwe can be outlined, and the culture of authoritarianism that holds sway over great portions of the African continent can be broken.
All this makes sense, but will British opinion-makers agree? To put it to the test, later today the Henry Jackson Society will be creating an Open Letter to be signed by the 'great and the good' in support of this principle. This will be launched just prior to the election run-off...and we'll keep you posted of the results.
