(For the record, as well as being a contributor to
CentreRight, I am also co-founder of YouGov)
As you can see from Harry’s post, YouGov does have
significantly different numbers from the other pollsters on the mayoral race.
Obviously we think we’re right, as we were last time, but there is one
considerable uncertainty: turnout. Usually the sample that pollsters talk to is
reasonably similar to the active voting population, but in elections such as
this one, with historically low levels of participation, deciding which (if
any) ‘likely-voter’ filters to apply is tricky. With any polling methodology
there tends to be strong over-claiming by respondents – not because they are necessarily
fibbing about their certainty to vote, they may really believe it, but can’t be
bothered on the day.
With high differential levels of support at different
likelihoods of voting, this can become highly consequential. The outer boroughs
tend to be more pro-Boris than pro-Ken, but tend to feel less identified as
Londoners and so have not in past mayoral elections voted in the number that
might be expected. Boris may change that. Meanwhile people in inner-London, who
tend to be more pro-Ken, may be fired-up by fear of a Tory winning London for the first time
in a generation. Turnout will be the deciding factor in this race, but our poll
today suggests that Ken has a mountain to climb in the three days that remain.
Please note: contrary to the implication in the graphic accompanying Harry's post, today's is NOT our final poll: one more to come!
