Last Autumn's Conference had a splendid atmosphere. This was partly because it was very well organised (for which Spelman - whom I hadn't previously rated - must be given a lot of credit), but mainly because almost everyone there thought two things - (a) that there would be a General Election within a few weeks (I tried to persuade everyone I met that this was wrong, but almost no-one listened); (b) we would lose horribly (and that might even be the end of us as a serious political party). This assumption of utter defeat led us to gallows cheerfulness - eat, drink, and be merry, for tomorrow you will die! Remember those famous pictures in the paper of how empty the room was containing the grammar schools fringe meeting and the like? Some press reports suggested that this was because, in the face of fire, the Conservative Party had pulled together and shown extreme discipline. I think that's plain wrong. I think people didn't attend those debates because they didn't think they mattered.
I went to a number of conferences in the aftermath of the 1997 crushing. There were some very energetic debates at fringe meetings then. Some people suggest this was ill-discipline and infighting, and perhaps there was some of that. But I think that the most important aspect was that we thought our debates mattered, we thought that we would win some time in the not-too-distant future, and that it would make a difference whether we got our policies right or not. At the 2007 Conference I think we saw what happens when one despairs.
At the moment, we are looking on cheerfully at our double-digit opinion poll leads, wondering, against all the lessons of recent experience and the expectations of only yesterday, whether this might be it - we might actually win. For fear of blowing out the delicate flame of victory-hope, our internal discussions have become even slightly boring recently. We don't want to raise too much in the way of complaints about our daft health policy, the unclarities of our EU policy, and so on. Even on taxes and spending, matters have quietened. We gaze on that little flame as it spreads, and will it to catch more strongly.
But will this last? Indeed - should it last? If we get to be a year out from a General Election and we seem well ahead in the polls, will we be able to resist the temptation to try to get our still-in-many-ways-flawed policies right? Or is that a debate we should wait to have in office, if we win? But if we let matters get as far as office, will we really be able to have these debates at all - and might we not make bad mistakes from the off? Remember, New Labour made most of its most serious policy errors between 1997 and 1999. Is this a lesson we should learn from - or might that (might even asking the question!) snuff out the flame...?