We at the "Save the Gordon" campaign have become a little worried of late. Another week, another double digit Tory lead, and the Sunday and now Monday papers are a nightmare. The Sun, Mail, Independent, Times, Telegraph have all carried pieces by their star columnists arguing that Gordon is weak, must go, etc. Surely even the Mirror can't be far behind. Is Gordon Brown in serious danger of being ousted from the job he schemed and brooded over for ten years?
The answer is 'not unless he wants to'. And who is Brown's closest ally, and staunch protector? Step forward, Mr. T. Blair.
Rules designed by Tony to make the leadership impregnable against Gordon are now protecting him. To even mount this fictious stalking horse challenge being dreamed of by some, Charles Clarke, Milburn or A. N. Other need 70 Labour MPs - just to get to nomination. Are there seventy Labour MPs willing to risk their careers? Gordon Brown need not go to the country for another two years. Junior ministers, like the one I face, presumably want to make it into the Cabinet. Two years is a long time in politics. And then, consider all the other difficulties. The lengthy timetable of a Labour leadership election, allowing infighting to go on almost until the General Election, whilst the Conservatives, disciplined and united, set out their stall to the country.
Add to that unpromising mix Brown fighting like a wounded bear, and you simply do not have enough time for a leadership challenge. Anthony Meyer needed two supporters to challenge Margaret Thatcher. Blair avoided that catastrophe by requiring 20% of his party. The hurdles are too high.
And how stupid would the Parliamentary Labour party look while the contest was going on? It's often said that Brown "was not elected to anything". This is untrue. There was no Labour leadership contest for a reason - that so many Labour MPs had nominated Mr. Brown that his left-wing challengers couldn't make the threshold. Almost the entire PLP voted for Brown. And just a few months later, they want the guy out? What will that say to an electorate about the seriousness of Labour MPs as a governing body?
I enjoy the writing of the Blairite journalist John Rentoul. But his anguished plea for David Miliband to mount a coup and save the nation is just dreaming. Miliband is too ambitious to put his party through a bitterly divisive leadership election, just to almost certainly immediately lose the general election, and his chance to be the premier. Miliband wants to be Prime Minister, not Leader of the Opposition. He knows the economic disaster, caused by Brown, that is about to hit us. The best thing for any serious politician would be to let Brown take the General Election blame, and then lead the Labour party to recovery. Or try to.
