In the glorious entertainment that is the US primary season, one of the best recurring jokes is the constant twitting of the conventional wisdom.
When you're told that McCain has got the Republican nomination in the bag, remember what the same people were telling you six months ago (McCain washed up), one month ago (Republican loyalties hopelessly divided) and one week ago (conservatives unite behind Mitt Romney).
In all probability, McCain will get the nomination, but he's still got Mike Huckabee to see off – the only man who's proven more pundits wrong than McCain himself. So, it's good to see at least one commentator – the Spectator's James Forsyth – asking a pertinent question: what will Huckabee do now?:
With Mike Huckabee and John McCain the only men left standing in the Republican race, Huckabee faces a dilemma... Huckabee has to decide whether he is certain enough in his ability to win, and wants it enough, to go negative on McCain.
James's conclusion is that Huckabee will "stay positive and try and charm his way onto the ticket." I'm sure that's right, but I wonder if the guitar-playing preacherman hasn't set his sights on something more important.
As Peter Cuthbertson explains, a new kind of conservatism is emerging in America – one which fuses traditional values with a concern for social justice. So far this tendency has lacked a leader of national standing, but that's now changed with Huckabee's rise to prominence.
Given what he's achieved in just one year, with next to no money and more rough edges than smooth, I wonder what he could achieve over time at the head of an emerging movement of millions of people. McCain may have a shot at the White House, but Huckabee might just be the man to realign American politics.
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