Some exciting opinion poll news from Ross Lydall of the Evening Standard in the battle for Mayor of London. A YouGov poll for ITV's London Tonight shows Boris Johnson ahead of Ken Livingstone by 5%. Unlike the earlier polls which showed Livingstone ahead this one has a decent sample size of 1,003 Livingstone's campaign have hit back leaking a MORI poll showing "when forced to choose between Ken and Boris, of those certain to vote, 49 per cent opted for the Mayor and 47 per cent for the Tory."
What I found interesting and encouraging about the MORI poll was that of those certain to vote being allowed to choose across the field 38 per cent backed Ken, 35 per cent Boris, 14 per cent Brian Paddick and two per cent for Green Party candidate Sian Berry. In other wards Livingstone lead went down fractionally, from 3% to 2%, when the second preferences were exercised.
What's no good about the YouGov poll is that it ignores this business about the second preferences. which are key. But generally YouGov have proved more accurate than MORI so the overall news is promising.
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