On Saturday I finally got round to reading an article that Danny Finkelstein had written for The Times about ten days ago. The article was called All change: The Right knows it's wrong. The article wasn't as sweeping as the headline suggested but it certainly urged more fundamental change to right-of-centre politics than I think is sensible. Later on Saturday, Stephan Shakespeare took up my argument and attacked the tendency of many political commentators to always look for what appears to be popular and not for what the country might really need. He noted that Danny Finkelstein had been hugely principled on the war on terror and hoped for similar "clarity of purpose [to] be applied to other issues".
Danny has reacted today and protests too much. Stephan has replied to the personal aspects of their row. I want to focus on some of the substantial issues:
Stephan was right to say that Danny Finkelstein's remarks on 'tax and John Howard' bordered on the intellectually dishonest: Danny wrote this about tax cuts (my emphasis added):
"Always an automatic crowd-pleaser in the past, it isn't working quite as reliably as it used to. John Howard, for instance, lost in Australia despite his promises. In Britain, Conservative pledges have had mixed results. Voters don't believe them. And in America Frum notes a very good reason for this. Mostly it is not the middle class who gain, it is the very well-off. If conservatives can no longer rely on the old tunes, they have to learn some new ones."
It was very misleading of Danny to associate John Howard's tax cut package with defeat. All polls showed Howard lost for many reasons. Longevity, unpopular environmental policies and controversial labour market reforms would be top of any informed lists. Australia, if anything, disproves Danny's point. Mr Howard's victorious opponent had to promise (albeit more modest) tax cuts in a pattern of me-tooism that would have made Blair and Brown blush.
Britain and tax cuts: Danny warns that voters don't believe tax cut promises. Perhaps that has a little to do with the previous Shadow Chancellor, Oliver Letwin, telling them that tax pledges weren't believable! There has also been the problem of Tory tax pledges coming at the last minute. Lynton Crosby is back in Britain so it's worth remembering his 'you can't fatten a pig on market day' dictum. The dramatic effect of last year's inheritance tax cut shows that times have moved on. It's 2008; even Labour MPs are admitting Britain is over-taxed. The TaxPayers' Alliance's polling is being vindicated.
International experiences aren't easily imported: It is true that centre right parties can learn from another but we need to be aware of differences. I think there are lessons from US politics (I plead guilty of looking perhaps too hard for lessons) but I'm also aware that we are in different cycles at the moment. America has had eight years of Bush and tax cuts. It's had a longer period of large-scale imprisonment and Giuliani-style policing. Britain has had nearly eleven years of rising taxes and ineffective crime policies. The Republicans may find policies on tax and crime less potent. That isn't the case in the UK.
The best bit of Stephan's article. Stephan wrote: "I want a party that can convincingly say to the people: we're doing this for you, not for ourselves." That really is at the heart of the issue. There is too much punditry that treats politics as a horse race. There's too much discussion of how to win. Too many PMQs are about inside-the-Beltway issues. Politicians rarely resign when they do things wrong. Danny, like me, is part of a political class that can be too inward-looking.
A final note. I like Danny - my disagreement with him is issue-based, not personal. He's one of the nicest (and cleverest) people in politics. Stephan is also a very good man and a robust supporter of Israel. I mention that because I'm disgusted by Stephen Pollard's rush to Danny's defence by throwing about accusations of anti-Semitism. A nought to 100mph rush to slur someone like that is contemptible. I recommend Aesop's The Boy Who Cried Wolf fable to Mr Pollard.
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