These are all good questions on my earlier post on the EU Treaty from James McConalogue. He is right to suggest this isn't actually a new policy from the LibDems, but what is new is the tortuous and contradictory explanation for their appalling volte face on having a referendum on the Constitution.
The real vote on having the Referendum is still to come. There will be an amendment tabled to the Bill to urge a Referendum in due course. It is difficult to be too optimistic about the ensuing vote - remember, this is not our fault, it is the fault of Labour and the LibDems failing to honour their pre-election pledge, which could not have been clearer in both cases. There will be more Labour rebels - and hopefully LibDem rebels too - who do the honourable thing and stick to their pledge. Last night's Second Reading vote wasn't strictly speaking about a Referendum, but about the Treaty itself. So MPs who are both pro-Treaty and pro-Referendum (like Frank Cook) voted with the Government. MPs like Gisela Stuart, who is passionately pro-Referendum, but more ambiguous on the Treaty itself, abstained last night.
To get an independent view on the prospects of a major Labour rebellion, see Philip Cowley's essential-reading website on Parliamentary rebellions.
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