Primary predictions

Pundits like to make predictions, but they don't often get held to account. By way of self-regulation, I'm posting up some forecasts I made back in mid-December (in an email to Mr Timothy Montgomerie):

"Huckabee whups Romney in Iowa

McCain wins in New Hampshire

In subsequent contests Giuliani and McCain stay competitive, but Huckabee fails to repeat Iowa victory – Romney squeezed out everywhere (more angry exchanges with Giuliani and Huckabee)

Huckabee campaign hits major infrastructure constraints – decides to go out on a high before he runs out of a steam, endorsing McCain

Sensing momentum and wanting to stop Giuliani, Romney also folds – endorsing McCain

McCain and Giuliani go to the wire, but McCain edges it thanks to evangelical votes."

So far, I'm not doing too badly in regard to Messrs Huckabee and McCain. As for Mitt Romney, I was right in terms of the major contests (Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina), but didn't factor in the sideshows (Wyoming, Michigan and Nevada), where significant spending from Romney combined with light campaigning from his rivals delivered substantial victories and a sense of momentum.

Where I really went wrong, though, was in regard to Rudi. It looks like it’s McCain and Romney down to the wire – which at least gives the Republican Party an interesting choice between life and death.