CentreRight

A considered view on the news of the day

Good.

Dan Hannan the Eurosceptic chav

I'm sure Dan Hannan will be absolutely gutted to be thrown out of the EPP (not). I never thought I'd say this but I suspect Dan will this evening be feeling like one of the chavs who has just seen his street cred soar by being awarded an ASBO. Wear it with pride Dan!

Local Government payroll growth

Our new report Council Spending Uncovered 2: Middle Management Pay is out today.  We've had a very predictable response from the councils.  Some have blamed us for their failure to separate out teachers from regular council workers.  Others have cited competition for staff from the private sector.

This is a pretty weak argument when you consider that many of these councils had dozens of staff paid more than the £60,000 average pay that directors at companies with turnovers of £5-50 million enjoy (according to research for the Institute of Directors, not online).  They're using their half a billion pound publicity machine to try and deny this report instead of accepting the obvious truth that the number of staff earning over £50,000 shouldn't be going up three times as fast in local councils as it is in the economy as a whole.

Unfortunately, there are a lot of people really attached to the status quo in the Council Tax debate: councils blame the Government and the Government blames councils.  No one takes responsibility.  Ordinary taxpayers pay the price in the form of a doubling of Council Tax over the last ten years with further big rises to come.

Re: Why it's right to quit the EPP

Douglas Carswell is absolutely right to say that we must leave the EPP.  Daniel Hannan will not be crying any tears tonight at his apparent "expulsion" from the group for making what EPP Chairman Joseph Daul has preposterously described as "intolerable remarks". 

Drama aside, today's events are a mere sideshow. 

Attention must now turn to the formation of the new parliamentary grouping promised by David Cameron during the 2005 leadership election, a task delegated to the rock-solid Geoffrey Van Orden by the delegation's new leader, Giles Chichester. 

Following the "Malaga Agreement" signed following the 1999 European elections, Conservatives were led to believe they would be part of a technical grouping (the "European Democrats") which whilst sitting with the EPP for "strength of numbers" would possess their own funding streams and freedom to determine its own agenda and staffing arrangements.   After the 2004 elections, the ED element of the group was apparently boosted by the arrival of new MEPs from the Czech Republic and further promises of increased autonomy. 

To this day, the ED has no funding, no staff and no prospect of any in the near future.

The same promises made in 1999 and 2004 will be made in the run up to the 2009 elections as the EPP desperately – and disingenuously - attempts to keep their "allies", the British Conservatives, on board.

The Party must hold its nerve on leaving the EPP and not allow itself to again fall victim to the hollow promises of the Gaullist EPP. We need our own group.  Nothing more, nothing less.

A '70s revival

Douglas Carswell's post asked whether we were heading for a "Pim Fortuyn moment". Well, I'm not sure about that, but one thing is certain; in Britain now it feels more and more like the 1970s.

Then, of course, it was about economics. Cometh the moment, cameth the woman. In 2008, it is about culture. It is about the effects of mass immigration, the virtual collapse of society in many areas and the disintegration of a common nationhood.

Extraordinary though it may seem, the Westminster village still hasn't got it.      

Why it's right to quit the EPP

In an extraordinary fit of pique, party bosses in the Brussels parliament have thrown Dan Hannan out of the European People's Party - for doing what the people of Europe want in opposing the European Constitution / Lisbon Treaty.

EPP party chiefs seem to have shot themselves in the foot.  In order to stop Dan Hannan's repeated calls for a referendum, they had to break their own rules.  If the EPP chucks Hannan out while challenging the the European Constitution / Lisbon Treaty, then what are the Conservatives doing as part of the EPP group in Brussels in the first place?  This bizarre episode proves why David Cameron was so right to give a guarantee to take his MEPs out of the EPP.

BBC story: "EU Leaders call for transparency"

This story on the BBC caught my eye this week, entitled "EU leaders call for transparency".

It related to the gathering in London of the top 5 EU leaders - Jose Barroso, Angela Merkel, Nicolas Sarkozy and Romano Prodi, hosted by Gordon Brown. Coming at the same time as the House of Commons began its debates on the Lisbon EU Treaty, I suddenly imagined that our leaders had done a volte face on the Constitution/Treaty!

Alas, it wasn't a story about how the EU runs itself at all - in fact, EU leaders were calling for greater transparency in the banking system!

Who do they think we are?

Six months ago no-one in the mainstream media seemed too worried about this Government's ability to track our lives through its relentless collection of data.  How times change. I've lost count of the 'Stasi' headlines over the last few days, Timothy Garton Ash in today's Guardian being the latest to call for a fightback. Garton Ash points out that the advance of information and communications technology goives the state 'possibilities of which the Stasi could only dream.' Which is perfectly true. And it's not just phone tapping and CCTV that gives the state too much information, but the much more innocuous-sounding 'personalisation' of public services which, as I point out in a new report for the Centre for Policy Studies , is designed to enable Government departments and Government agencies to share our personal data with a view to creating a 'package' of public services for each of us.

Described by Government advisers as the 'Tesco clubcard' model for public service reform, this agenda aims to provide Government with 'customer insight' based on our 'behaviour, experiences, beliefs, needs or desires' - so that services can be planned and allocated from the centre. Perhaps the most disturbing claim made for the agenda is that it is to be designed so that the public 'do not see this process.' Let us hope that the public, thanks to recent data loss scandals, do begin to see the process which Gordon Brown and his colleagues have embarked upon. The more light is shed on it, the better.

Sad news for Westminster villagers

A few days ago Robert Halfon regretfully noted the closure of a "wonderful village shop" in his beloved Harlow and its replacement with a Booze Busters store.

Unfortunately something not too dissimilar has happened in Westminster.

Tevere was a lovely little cafe on the corner of Great Peter Street and Marsham Street.

Spending more time with your staff

Very droll comment about Conway on ToryDiary yesterday, saluted by Hugo Rifkind in the Times:

"I suppose he's standing down so he can spend more time with his staff."

I'm not too sure about a blanket ban on MPs' children working for public money. Partly because of Dan Hannan's critique following the Hain business that MPs need to distinguish between right and legal, but also because I know a few MPs' children who do a good job. Surely the simplest thing to do is to publicly disclose MPs' employment details so the media, who now have the scent, will pick up anything that the public would construe to be dodgy. Seems much simpler than more regulation.

Ironically the main obstacle to further disclosure is the House of Commons Commission chaired by Speaker Michael Martin. Martin is no angel when it comes to expenses.

Some tortoise, some neck

The important article on ToryDiary about hares and tortoises has spawned similar articles in the newspapers every day since it was posted last Thursday, continuing today with Iain Martin's piece. In case you missed it, it concerns a difference of opinion over Tory strategy in the run-up to the next election. According to ToryDiary, the chelonian position is as follows:

"[The tortoises] believe that Brown is finished. They believe that Northern Rock, in particular, is fast eroding the Prime Minister's reputation for economic competence. They do not want to risk the Tories' strong position in the opinion polls..."

The leporid counter-argument runs thus:

"[the hares] note that the Tories need a seismic shift in order for the party to form a parliamentary majority but that opinion polls point to a defeat for Labour rather than a much larger shift. They say that the Tories need to give electors some big reasons to vote for them rather than the LibDems."

As ToryDiary insists, this is a gentle though serious debate. It is one that the inner-circle needs to have as it prepares for the next two years. It is essential, however, that 'tortoise' and 'hare' aren't seen as respective synonyms for 'moderniser' and 'traditionalist', let alone 'left' and 'right'.

Even though the article identifies the Conservative leader as the tortoise-in-chief, the great Cameron breakthrough of the last two years has hardly been characterised by caution. Rather, we have seen breathtaking boldness on supposedly high-risk issues such as social justice, the environment and civil liberties. To paraphrase Winston Churchill: some tortoise, some neck!

In any case, isn't the idea of taking it easy while Gordon Brown self-destructs something you'd expect from the hare?

Gordon Brown has NEVER referred to Ken Livingstone by his name

I did a post last week on Centre Right on how Gordon Brown couldn't bring himself in PMQs to say the words "Ken Livingstone". Last week, he talked about the "need for a Labour Mayor". This week, it was even worse. Replying to a softball question from Labour's Andrew Dismore, Brown defended only the "administration" at City Hall, but he did use the opportunity to refer directly to Conservative candidate Boris Johnson. Once again, it was all very strange - how can a Prime Minsiter not refer to his number one election candidate by name, only three months before election day? Even stranger is this - searching 19 years of Hansard records online, Brown has actually never mentioned Ken Livingstone by either name nor as the Honorable Member for Brent East.

TNC looks at the future of conservatism

The New Criterion's January edition features several extended articles about the future of conservatism.

John O'Sullivan's piece focusing particularly on trimming bureaucracy domestically and internationally seems to be the only one accessible without registering, other than Roger Kimball's interesting introduction. It's over 4000 words so you might want to print it out, but as with anything written by John it is well worth reading.

Primary predictions

Pundits like to make predictions, but they don't often get held to account. By way of self-regulation, I'm posting up some forecasts I made back in mid-December (in an email to Mr Timothy Montgomerie):

"Huckabee whups Romney in Iowa

McCain wins in New Hampshire

In subsequent contests Giuliani and McCain stay competitive, but Huckabee fails to repeat Iowa victory – Romney squeezed out everywhere (more angry exchanges with Giuliani and Huckabee)

Huckabee campaign hits major infrastructure constraints – decides to go out on a high before he runs out of a steam, endorsing McCain

Sensing momentum and wanting to stop Giuliani, Romney also folds – endorsing McCain

McCain and Giuliani go to the wire, but McCain edges it thanks to evangelical votes."

So far, I'm not doing too badly in regard to Messrs Huckabee and McCain. As for Mitt Romney, I was right in terms of the major contests (Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina), but didn't factor in the sideshows (Wyoming, Michigan and Nevada), where significant spending from Romney combined with light campaigning from his rivals delivered substantial victories and a sense of momentum.

Where I really went wrong, though, was in regard to Rudi. It looks like it’s McCain and Romney down to the wire – which at least gives the Republican Party an interesting choice between life and death.

Are we heading for a "Pim Fortuyn moment"?

It's a fair bet politicians are held in lower regard this week than they were the week before. And lower than the week before when Peter Hain resigned. Contempt for MPs comes not just with revelations about a few individuals' dodgy dealings. Anger grows because the political class make glib gestures, rather than govern.

Voters sense Britain is becoming a state of failure; billions of pounds go into a health service riddled with delays and MRSA. More money on schools has seen standards actually decline. The criminal justice system is often useless.  Government has lost control of our borders - as well as its own agencies and quangos.

The electorate now recognise that an alphabet soup of quangos - NICE, QCA, FSA, CSA et al - preside over us, whomever they vote for.

petraeus2016.com

I'm still coming to terms with Rudy's demise but I haven't given up hope for the future.  I'm now the proud owner of petraeus2016.com.  I'll gladly donate it to the great man should he declare at the end of eight glorious years of President McCain.

PC Bloodhound of the Yard can do without these "encounter forms"

OK, so Jacqui Smith's long overdue plan to cut police paperwork is not quite post-bureaucracy in action.  But any move in this direction should be welcomed.

Here's where it should start:  with "encounter" forms. At present any police officer who asks someone to account for their behaviour or whereabouts must fill in and file one of these daft foot-long forms - for every person they speak to.  There is no requirement to respond, but the form must go in.

Imagine the scene: a shop window is broken. Within seconds intrepid PC Bloodhound of the Yard is on the scene.  Assessing the facts in a single glance, he quickly asks a group of local teenagers where they have been and if they have seen anything.

"Er, naff off", says one.  "I know my rights" says his mate.  The others just walk away. Bloodhound now has to spend half an hour wondering how to describe accurately the appearance and ethnicity of every youth he has spoken to.

Back at the station his sergeant wearily checks forms from the previous day. Meanwhile the culprit, long since gone, sits back in his armchair and toasts the Home Office with champagne.

Re: The post-bureaucratic age

The CPS seminar was an excellent contribution in a critical area.  It's very, very important and central to putting together a convincing vision for the country.  Yet is there not a risk that when we talk of bureaucrats, quangos, de-centralisation etc. it can sound a bit 80s?  I do not feel we yet have the language that gets accross our ideas in a way that will really inspire people come 2010.

What I pick up on the doorstep is a feeling of "powerlessness".  Whoever you vote for the Government always gets in and we can't change anything.  Small wonder when ministers say "not us guv" and pass the buck to faceless local health chiefs for hospital problems or the faceless regional transport board for highways upgrades.  Suddenly MPs and councillors seem completely pointless, so why vote for them?  People tell me they want an ability to use the ballot box to get change - in other words "accountability" and "transparency".

Ministers should be accountable for things done at the central level.  Local councils should have direct accountability at the local level. Almost all quangos should go.  We could have a new covenant - you can understand, you know where you stand and the buck stops with someone holding elected office directly accountable to you or your MP / councillor.  We can do localist things like move a whole load of healthcare services to local authorities.  We can axe regional assemblies etc, and forge anew a real link between the electors and the elected.

McCain's support for human rights and focus on terrorism make him the man we need

Ten days ago, I declared on CentreRight my support for John McCain. I am therefore delighted that he won Florida last night, and is one step closer to becoming the Republican candidate for President.

In my posting ten days ago, I acknowledged that when McCain spoke to the Conservative Party Conference in 2006, he did not excite or enthrall us. But the more I have seen and heard of him, and of the other contenders, the more I believe that he is absolutely the best candidate for President. His consistent focus on security, highlighting - thoughtfully - the challenge of radical Islamism and terrorism, as well as his consistent support of democracy and human rights, and his criticism of torture wherever it is used, makes him for me, in our times, the man we need.

In his victory speech in Florida, he set out a vision of government which is as Conservative as you could get. Some people claim he is not really a conservative. That is absurd. Listen to this (you need to stay with it beyond the platitudes and opening remarks)...

RE: Good night Rudy

I think that I had best spare Tim the pain of hearing the news from the hostile mouth of the BBC that his prediction of the demise of his champion Rudy Giuliani has come to pass. Word is streaming through thick and fast on all the US newswires that John McCain has clinched the Florida vote, with Mitt Romney second and Giuliani a distant third. And I, for one, am delighted.

As Tim (and other Giulianites such as Douglas Murray and Nile Gardiner) can testify, I have been a McCainiac since his 2008 campaign was but a glint in the eye. Perhaps unsurprising really as the Patrons list of the Henry Jackson Society is top-heavy with McCain foreign policy advisers. I watched in horror as his campaign imploded last summer, sat there more in hope than expectation through the autumn (I'll admit that I thought he was out of it but stayed loyal to the cause in glum desperation) and then slowly once again dared to believe that he could triumph in the winter. And now revel in the prospect that he will surge through in the spring.

Good night Rudy

I'm having an early night.  My alarm clock will go off at 5.58am tomorrow. I'll reach for my radio and anticipate the headlines of the Today programme.  One of those headlines will almost certainly be that McCain or Romney is the presidential choice of Florida's Republicans.  That will also mean the end of Rudy Giuliani's road to the White House.  Rudy has been my choice for a good twelve months although I have been more and more open to a McCain candidacy since last November.

I don't approve of Rudy's private life or his support for abortion but his transformation of New York made him, for me, the preferred candidate.  He offered a proven record of executive leadership.  He cut taxes.  He cut welfare numbers.  He cut crime*.  After the Bush years he offered a return to proven competence.  His promise to appoint Supreme Court judges like Roberts and Alito should have reassured social conservatives.  His security credentials are impeccable and, unlike McCain, he's not a europhile.  Nor has he sold out to the climate change lobby.

This video encapsulates what he offered but which looks set to be rejected:

Saying no to international racism

Last week Canada announced it was pulling out of the Durban II UN Conference on Racism in 2009. You may remember Durban I in 2001, which was overshadowed by the terrible events of September 11th. Durban I was a farce, from which both the US and Israel pulled out, where African and Arab nations used the cover of racism to criticize and demand compensation from western countries. With Libya and Cuba as the chair and vice-chair of Durban II, and Iran on the organising committee (three countries which sponsored the original infamous "Zionism is Racism" resolution 3379 at the UN) it promises to be much the same.

These sort of conferences allow the intolerable situation where autocratic human-rights abusing governments lecture and admonish the west for ancient crimes real and imagined (but not give credit for positive action like the Royal Navy's ending of the slave trade). Having western governments attend only gives them credibility and someone to shout at. This is why I am so proud of Canada's Conservative government, which is motivated to actually end real racism and not attend conferences for the sole purpose of being lecture on dubious interpretations of our past by hypocrites. I hope Britain and other western countries will follow suit.

American electoral geography

If you are as interested in political maps and how politics and geography intersect as I am, you ought to have a look at some of the amazing maps the New York Times has online for the American Presidential primaries. Not only have they got the standard county by county results mapped out in an easy to understand fashion (see here for the primaries in South Carolina for example), but they map both candidate events and more impressively money.

Let's be radical and take the pressure off children...

Peter Cuthbertson wrote yesterday here about Chris Bryant's 'radical' proposal which will cause an 'avalanche of praise' from across Westminster. The 'new' idea? To hand out condoms to 10 year olds as the solutions to teenage pregnancy.

I'm all for radical ideas, but call me a stickler; I'd like to suggest that solutions need to be evidence based. And the evidence is that, as reported here , more available contraception has made teenage pregnancy worse in the UK. Not only that, but let's be truthful - condoms only reduce the risk of pregancy and sexually transmitted diseases, they are not infallible.

My radical idea is this: let's protect children from premature decisions, pressures and consequences. Let's protect them from the destructiveness of early and experimental sexual experiences. Let's allow them, through on going SRE in secondary school to develop the emotional intelligence to be able to handle relationships and adult issues. And, oh my gosh, this is radical, let's follow the Dutch example of involving the parents and family in sex education. Their evidence? The lowest rate of teen pregnancy in Europe.

Re: Derek Conway

I'm so relieved that Conway has lost the Whip, albeit belatedly. There was a lot of talk of tactics in relation to Labour's woes over dodgy finances but surely it provided a tactical opportunity to make Brown look like a ditherer by contrasting his feet-dragging over Hain with Cameron's decisive action over Conway?

The dithering line was used in a question to Cameron after the CDU meeting, and it stung a little. Cameron's answer was that it's normally for the Parliamentary authorities to do the punishing and that he reflected on it overnight. The former doesn't explain the 24hr delay because nothing has changed in that respect, the latter hardly deflects the ditherer barb.

I've seen several journalists carrying around a green document entitled "The conduct of Mr Derek Conway" today. This had to be killed before Labour's line that all parties are falling short of on finances got too much credence.

I completely agree with Alex's analysis, this was about right and wrong. I've never seen ConservativeHome commenters so united. If more MPs are found to be guilty of the same thing, as Robert Winnett's explanation of how this was found out suggests could happen, they too should lose the Whip.