Alan Drew is a lecturer and research physicist at a Swiss university. He has recently begun a project to push forward the agenda that prisons work on the website www.prisonworks.org.
> Policy summary
Increasing the likelihood of being caught and incarcerated reduces crime. Doubling the number of prison places will allow the policy of early release to cease, and encourage the criminal justice system to incarcerate criminals guilty of serious crime more often and for longer.
> Policy explanation
The U.S. robbery rate was nearly double England and Wales' rate in 1981, but in 1995 the English and Welsh robbery rate was 1.4 times America's.
The U.S. burglary rate was more than double England and Wales' rate in 1981, but in 1995 the English and Welsh burglary rate was nearly double America's.
The U.S. rape rate was 17 times England and Wales’ rate in 1981 but 3 times in 1996.
The U.S. murder rate was 8.7 times England and Wales' in 1981 but 5.7 times in 1996.
Between 1981 and 1996 we find that, on average, US crime rates have reduced significantly but English crime rates have increased. So what’s going on?
Two of the four main factors of the reduction in US crime are increased police numbers and a rising prison population, with increasing prison numbers accounting for 27% of the overall reduction in crime. The total US prison population grew from 123 prisoners per 100,000 people in 1980, to 400 in 1996. In 1996, we imprisoned just 102 per 100,000.
Indeed, despite the rhetoric about short-sharp-shocks, during the 1980s the Tory Government pursued an overall anti-prison policy. The prison population was actually cut by nearly 10% between 1988 and 1993, even with a rocketing crime rate. The crime rate reached an historic peak soon after and towards the end of 1993 the policy was reversed by Home Secretary, Michael Howard. Within 2 years of reversing the anti-prison policy, Michael Howard witnessed a sharp reduction in crime rates. In his own words, “prison works”.
There tends to be the argument that the UK is a country with a high population of prisoners, yet we still have a relatively high crime rate. Despite this misleading rhetoric produced by the anti-prison lobby, our prison population is not large in comparison to other European countries. Yes - we have a large absolute prison population - but this is small compared to the number of crimes. Comparing absolute numbers of prisoners is a very misleading way of representing the statistics.
Even now, with an expanding prison population courtesy of Mr. Blair’s administration, just 12 people are imprisoned for every 1,000 recorded crimes. In Spain, the number is 48. Spain's crime rate is roughly one quarter of ours.
Prisons are not perfect: they are next to useless if we have an ineffective, inefficient police force; reoffending rates are tremendously high, although in a lot of cases lower than non-custodial sentences; prisons mop up the failures of the care and education system; and there is a large drug problem in our prisons.
These issues need to be addressed. But prisons do one thing – and do one thing well – they reduce crime. And that has to be the first and foremost criminal justice policy. This policy is simple: in the first term of government, the Conservative Party must double the number of prison places.
One final point – increasing the number of prison places has other, less obvious effects. As a whole, the prison system has been overcrowded every year since 1994, although they are considered safe. At the end of January 2006, 53% of prisons were overcrowded. Overcrowding has significant effects on the whole of the criminal justice system. For example, as a direct result of overcrowding, an increasing number of prisoners are being held a significant distance from their home towns. This costs the taxpayer millions of pounds in transportation costs and in delays to the criminal justice system, as a result of late arrivals for court appearances. It also jeopardises family relationships and the chances of successful re-integration back into the community on release; two of the most important factors in reducing re-offending.
So not only will doubling prison places reduce crime directly, it will reduce it indirectly, by increasing the effectiveness of the prisons we already have.
> Political risks and opportunities
The Conservative Party is traditionally the party of law and order - there was a time when people looked to the Conservative party for ‘tougher’ action on crime. Let us not forget our roots – we must keep the public’s faith in our party to deliver lower crime rates and a fairer society. But we must be careful – we must ensure that we don’t fall foul of the classic Labour attack. They will want to brand us as unchanged and they will want to bring back memories of past glories, and failures. So not only must we build more prisons, we must make them work better.
> Questions for ConservativeHome readers
61% of all prisoners released in 2001 were reconvicted within two years. How do we address this?
Almost a third or prisoners spent time as children in care and the prison population as a whole has a frighteningly high rate of mental illness. How should the prison service deal with this? Is it the job of the prison service to deal with it?
> Costs
The anti-prison lobby often cite how expensive prisons are, as an argument against building more of them. However, they fail to take into account the cost of crime in their calculations. Doubling the number of prison places would cost around £7bn, yet in 2000, the Home Office estimated the cost of crime at £60bn. Taking inflation into account, that's £3,000 pa for every household. Considering the average wage is only £18,961 (median) or £23,400 (mean), that accounts for a 16 pence (median) or 13 pence (mean) increase in income tax. And it would only take a little over a 10% reduction in crime, from double the number of prisoners, to make the project self-funding.
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