A YouGov/ Telegraph survey of 661 current members of the Conservative Party suggests that David Cameron will be the next Conservative leader and that he will win an overwhelming majority. YouGov predicts that Mr Cameron will win 67% of the vote, against Mr Davis' 33%.
That result echoes that of this site's new Conservative Members' Panel. New members are still being recruited to this panel but the 'who would you most like to be the next leader of the Conservative Party?' question produced overwhelming support for David Cameron. Before the panel was promoted to non-visitors to this site, 848 Tory members had joined it. 552 said that they were voting for David Cameron and 249 for David Davis. Excluding the don't knows this gives David Cameron 69% of the vote and 31% for David Davis.
ConservativeHome's panel is much younger than the Conservative membership as a whole and can only be taken as indicative at this stage.
If the two surveys are more or less accurate Mr Cameron is set to secure a huge victory over his opponent. If Mr Davis secures only 30% of the vote Mr Cameron's advisers will be encouraging the new leader to demote him to a position like Defence (many visitors to this site predicted as much in their Fantasy Shadow Cabinets). Mr Cameron faces 'congestion' in his shadow cabinet decisions with George Osborne, Liam Fox, William Hague and Mr Davis all leading candidates for the top three portfolios of Chancellor, Foreign affairs and Home affairs.
If Mr Davis performs surprisingly well - 40% and more - he will be impossible to move.
I spoke to one Davis supporter yesterday and asked what would happen if Mr Davis was given the Defence portfolio. He predicted that it wouldn't be accepted. "Offence more likely," he joked. I think he was joking...