"Around half of the 253,689 eligible party members are now estimated to have voted in the leadership contest, even though the deadline is Dec 5. Party sources said, however, that as only 79 per cent voted in the last full membership ballot in 2001, effectively 60 per cent of votes had probably been cast."
My own information is very slightly different from that of The Telegraph - from which the above quotation comes. I understand that only a little over 40% of members have voted. Nonetheless. if those who have already voted have voted in line with last week's YouGov poll we can expect David Cameron to be enjoying a 2-1 lead. All of those yet to vote will have to vote in at least that proportion for David Davis to have a chance of winning this contest - a scenario that now seems very unlikely.
David Davis has one best, last chance to produce something dramatic tomorrow lunchtime when he goes head-to-head with David Cameron on ITV1's Jonathan Dimbleby programme. The programme goes out at 12.35pm tomorrow (Sunday). I'll blog the debate immediately afterwards.
If you haven't entered the run-off stage prediction competition it's not too late to do so. Click below to vote in ConservativeHome's own leadership ballot...