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Comments

Chris

JEEZ! I'm pretty confident but I wouldn't go as far as putting 200k on Cameron! I'm still kicking myself for not putting 20 quid on him before the conference when his odds were around 1:40...

Daniel Vince-Archer

I stand to make a decent amount of money from the insurance bet I laid on Cameron at 10-1 before conference. I can use some of it to pay for the drowning of my sorrows if he does win. I might even be able to afford a jug of Pink Pussy or Slippery Nipple! ;-)

michael

I was telling friends it would be Cameron back in May! Could have made a fortune :(

Am still going to give a donation to the Party when he wins next week.

Jack Stone

My god how hypocritical can you get to write digracful things about DC time and time again on this site when you have bet on him to win at the same time.
Daniel what you need to spend your money on is a conscionce!

michael

Jack, I think it shows Dan is a man of principle - after all, having placed a bet on Cameron - he could have spent the last few months saying nothing for fear of losing the reddies which will be his next Tuesday.

Mark Fulford

Jack - Daniel uses exactly the same strategy that I do: Back your opponent and ship in the champagne. Either way, you end up happy.

Andrew

People betting vast sums on low odds are almost universally doing so on inside info - I speak from long experience tracking Singaporean/Italian gambling patterns.

Cameron must be ludicrously far ahead on existing votes cast.

mike

Andrew - Even without inside info, it's got to be a very safe bet. I can't point to a single indicator which suggests Davis might pull off a surprise win.

Daniel Vince-Archer

"My god how hypocritical can you get to write digracful [sic] things about DC time and time again on this site when you have bet on him to win at the same time. Daniel what you need to spend your money on is a conscionce! [sic]"

Jack, as I mentioned above and the others have alluded to, it's an insurance bet, with the unexpected additional bonus that it seems to have irritated you so much, prompting hyperbolical squawking about hypocrisy, disgrace and lacking a conscience. I don't want Cameron to become leader, but if he does, at least I'll be able to comfort myself with cold, hard cash.

I actually already have a conscience Jack, which is why I'm opposed to the Notting Hell set prostituting the Conservative Party and apeing the unprincipled charlatanry of New Labour in order to further their own personal ambitions, whilst doing nothing to improve the overall health of the party, or tackle our diminished democracy, or substantially address the deep-rooted problems facing British society and the world around us.

Jack Stone

If David Cameron does win my advice to you Daniel is re-invest the winnings on backing the Conservatives to win the next election. Your bound to get a good price now and your once again be backing a certainty.

Andrew

"Andrew - Even without inside info, it's got to be a very safe bet. "


It is a very safe bet, but still not 100%. Politicians can always have skeletons in the closet......

Anyone making that bet is either a billionaire, insanely stupid, or with inside info. Of course, there remains the possibility that the bookie just made up the bet to get free publicity - that happens all the time, although they usually have someone winning £2 million with a 75 pence stake.........

Daniel Vince-Archer

"If David Cameron does win my advice to you Daniel is re-invest the winnings on backing the Conservatives to win the next election. Your [sic] bound to get a good price now and your [sic] once again be backing a certainty."

According to Smithson's website, the Conservatives are 7-4 to win the next election. In any case, I won't be taking advice from somebody that can't spell the word 'has', thanks. If I'm feeling generous, I may buy you a dictionary.

Selsdon Man

A 4% return over a week or so seems a very good investment - if you are confident that DC has it in the bag!

Andrew

I bet the person who put £20,000 on Manchester Utd to beat York in the cup a few years back said the same thing.

(for those who don't know, York won 3-0)

hayek's grandad

"I actually already have a conscience Jack, which is why I'm opposed to the Notting Hell set prostituting the Conservative Party and apeing the unprincipled charlatanry of New Labour in order to further their own personal ambitions, whilst doing nothing to improve the overall health of the party, or tackle our diminished democracy, or substantially address the deep-rooted problems facing British society and the world around us."

such erudite arguments and all backed up by so much... hot air.

hayek's grandad

"Anyone making that bet is either a billionaire, insanely stupid, or with inside info."

Actually there's a good living to be made out of betting on sure things. The odds are almost always skewed in your favour. The reason is that most people are willing to bet a pound or two on a long shot (a bit like doing the lottery, or betting on Davis winngin) and since the bookie wants to be risk neutral he has to move his odds away from the real world odds (this makes sure he makes money whatever the outcome). So if you bet on the sure thing on average you win. Of course you need deep pockets to make the strategy work.

Anyway last time I said this sort of thing Ed told me off for being boring so I'll shut up now.

Andrew

The bookies will love you! Low odds "sure things" and specials are the two most profitable singles bets areas for bookies. Even if does exist (really rare), the minute value edge you might have is more than wiped out by bookie profit margins. More generally, far too many people bet on the favourite regardless of the odds, which tends to level the risk-balancing effect you mention above.

Daniel Vince-Archer

"Such erudite arguments and all backed up by so much... hot air."

Grandpa, if you visit the blog I edit, you'll find plenty of reasoning for my arguments.

Conservatives Against Cameron's NewLabourisation

Jack Stone

Daniel.Your blog should be re-titled. How to carry on losing.

hayek's grandad

Andrew - the bookies don't care what the odds are they always win as they sell more than the whole and always remain risk neutral so really they don't care what the real world odds are (at least if they are good bookies). However you are right that often the favourites are bet on to such an extent that the odds are skewed against someone betting on them. This is especially true in such cases as high profile horse races (the grand national, gold cup etcetera). That's because such bets (like betting on all the favourites in a race meeting to win) are very popular. The flip side is that long shots are also popular so they tend to be over-rated in terms of odds too. The real trick is to know when each applies. As a rule of thumb the less popular a 'race' and the hotter the favourite the more likely you are to get a lot of 'long shot' bets, the more popular a race and the closer the race (i.e. the more uncertain the outcome) the more likely you are to get people betting on the favourite.

So I don't disagree with what you say it's just a case of knowing when each rule applies (or neither). But one thing is for certain, the bookies really don't care about the odds, the more people who bet the more money they make. They truly are 'risk-neutral'.


OK Ed I'll shut up now I promise

Daniel Vince-Archer

"Daniel.Your blog should be re-titled. How to carry on losing."

I agree Jack - Cameron's attempts to NewLabourise the Conservatives will cause us to carry on losing.

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