A YouGov poll for tomorrow's Sunday Times shows that support for David Cameron (based on a survey of 746 Tory party members) has more than doubled from 16% to 39%.
The same survey shows support for David Davis has halved - from 30% to 14%.
The numbers below compare the situation now with that which prevailed in early September:
DAVID CAMERON: 39% (16%)
KEN CLARKE: 26% (30%)
DAVID DAVIS: 14% (30%)
LIAM FOX: 13% (13%)
MALCOLM RIFKIND: 1% (4%)
Peter Kellner, Chairman of YouGov, said that he had "never seen such a big change in such a short time in 35 years of reporting and conducting opinion polls".
44% of those surveyed had changed their minds over the last week and nearly two-thirds of that group became supporters of David Cameron.
YouGov also set up run-offs between the candidates and David Davis would now only beat Liam Fox:
CAMERON (66%) vs DAVIS (27%)
CAMERON (60%) vs CLARKE (33%)
CLARKE (49%) vs DAVIS (44%)
DAVIS (44%) vs FOX (41%)
The collapse in support for David Davis appears to reflect two main factors:
- 65% of Conservative Party members surveyed by YouGov reported that David Davis performed badly at Blackpool.
- 63% thought that Mr Davis ‘is unlikely to inspire voters’.