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« Your predictions for the second round... | Main | Might a second-placed David Davis fold tomorrow? »

Comments

Sean Fear


That's a considerable distortion of what both Michael Macgowan and I have said.

Mark Fulford

Cameron will not pull Labour voters full stop. He's an Etonian, he speaks posh.

Every leader since Douglas-Hume has been chosen on this basis. While it was probably a good strategy for Heath, Thatcher and, possibly Major, background is not relevant today. The electorate is not as judgemental as you say (despite 6 state-educated leaders, they view as a Tory characteristic).

wasp

Maybe Tony Blair was right when he said that it was the message that was important not the back story???

Selsdon Man

"Liam Fox is just the traditional barking horse candidate. Someone that does well because they come from nowhere. A fad that should have ended with the pisspoor Iain Duncan Smith."

We can do without the personal abuse Wasp.

Jame Mawdsley

Have you heard, Kenneth Clarke MP has been knocked out of the leadership bid? This is a shame because Ken is an extremely able and popular politician.

This leaves only three other MPs in the running. One is Dr Liam Fox MP. He is the best of the lot - the most principled man of talent that Parliament has seen for more or less quite a while.

Also there are two others, both called David, but with different surnames. The heaviest is David Davis MP. Some of his supporters are especially supportive, which is to be welcomed in a leader.

And the other candidate is David Cameron MP. He is favourite on account of his qualities, including his ability to run an effective team, to speak from the heart, and to have weighed the world in its true measure.

My prediction for Thursday's vote is a Clar-Cam-Foxy-Davis joint ticket, a veritable Toryfest - a Conathon if you will - joining the left, right, top and bottom wings of the party chicken in one super-Thatch.

Justin Hinchcliffe

Although not a DD fan, he does at least command support from across the Party - Ian Taylor, Damian Green etc. Fox, to my knowledge, only has the support of MPs from the Tombstone Group. Best scenario would be for DD and DC to be presented to the membership.

James Hellyer

Fox, to my knowledge, only has the support of MPs from the Tombstone Group

I'd suggest that your knowledge has some rather huge holes in it...

Or has Cornerstone got 20 more MPs in it than the rest of us know about?

Justin Hinchcliffe

But some MPs loaned their support to Fox to stop Clarke. I would say that Fox only has about 25-30 loyal supporters of which 20-odd are Tombstoners.

A-Nick

"Will DC supporters vote tactically for Fox or Davis?"

I doubt it, he is going to want to go to the membership with a clear mandate from MPs.

Is the announcement at 5.20pm again tomorrow?

James Hellyer

But some MPs loaned their support to Fox to stop Clarke. I would say that Fox only has about 25-30 loyal supporters of which 20-odd are Tombstoners.

Then you'd be wrong. Again. Only Heathcoat-Amory is known to have voted to keep Clarke out. There was certainly no tactical voting from the DD camp - they couldn't afford to look as if they were going backwards...

Dr Fox has drawn supporters from all wings of the party. The simple truth is that he had around 20 votes before Cornerstone decided for him en masse. Perhaps it's time you put away your prejudice and tried applying facts?

Tim Roll-Pickering

"But some MPs loaned their support to Fox to stop Clarke. I would say that Fox only has about 25-30 loyal supporters of which 20-odd are Tombstoners."

Then you'd be wrong. Again. Only Heathcoat-Amory is known to have voted to keep Clarke out. There was certainly no tactical voting from the DD camp - they couldn't afford to look as if they were going backwards...

Davis himself knows sorry thinks (I can't do strikethrough on here) that there was tactical voting afoot - listen again to his post ballot speech outside St. Stephen's.

Fox has certainly got more support than Cornerstone, but he's not exactly made it this far on his merits alone.

James Hellyer

Gee Tim, don't you think that Davis just didn't want to admit to having underperformed? Clarke was the man his camp needed to keep in. It kept votes from Cameron (thus aiding DD's claim tio majority MP support) and offered a candidate whom DD could beat in the country.
If Davis's supporters tactically voted Clarke out, then I want someone else's tactics!

Dr Fox is a damned good candidate and has drawn support from all spectrums of the party. I hope he's in the final two.

Tim Roll-Pickering

The Davis Campaign Team (sic) has not exactly been the best to date. Their blog is so absurd I seriously considered email info@modernconservatives.com to tell them it appears to have been hijacked by a bunch of jokers, the latest post there suggests they've been looking to Margaret Thatcher after the first ballot in 1990 for ideas about how to regain momentum and so forth.

Where did Davis find these clowns?

James Hellyer

Tbe Whips Office - circa Maastricht Treaty.

There has to be something wrong with them to deploy Mitchell in a PR position - did you see his swivel-eyed loonery on yesterday's NewsNight?

Tim Roll-Pickering

Yes but does it say more about the campaign team still being shite or that Mitchell is by lack of competition the most telegenic MP whom they can rely on? And if it's the latter then Davis is frankly toast.

James Hellyer

I'd assumed Mitchell had got a top spot because he was an old colleague of Davis's. I'd not even considered that he was the best PR face they could offer!

My mother called my after Newsnight yesterday to say that she like Chris Grayling and Oliver Letwin, but that Mitchell had put her off Davis entirely. Is that good PR?

Tim Roll-Pickering

Chris Grayling is fantastic - he's my local MP, although I've been mainly away at university since he first won the seat, and has really taken to the constituency like a duck to water. Compare that to his predecessor, Sir Archibald Hamilton who was hardly ever seen in the seat!

James Hellyer


Well there you are. Join him in supporting the good Doctor. Even if you don't want a Fox leadership, it will at least offer the party a clear and valid choice.

Tim Roll-Pickering

I've already declared my support for Cameron, following Clarke's elimination. Why support a tactical vote to save Fox again?

James Hellyer

Because the members and the country deserve a real choice. Because this site's poll and YouGov's poll indicates Fox is the only serious alternative. Because if Cameron wins, his victory will have more legitimacy if approved by the members...

Tim Roll-Pickering

But if Davis and Cameron are genuinely the preferences of the MPs (in as far as Single Non-Transferable Vote can display accurate preferences) then why should Fox be supported? Why not allow the contest to go its natural course?

Grayling's predecessor (Archibald Hamilton) was very strong in his support for leaders having the clear backing of MPs. Perhaps I should follow his example instead of Grayling's?

Matthew Oxley

We've not seen much on cameron at all yet - It seems one good speech and a young face has made most of us think he is our savour - are we really that shallow?

We owe it to ourselves as a party to let Cameron and Fox fight it out over the next month, so at least we (hopefully) know a little about what our new leader will stand for, what he really offers rather than just taking a shot into the dark and preying it works.

Tim Roll-Pickering

Why not let Davis and Cameron fight it out instead? By your reasoning we could have the David we know vs the David we don't!

Matthew Oxley

There woudn't be a fight though, Havent you seen recent polls? Davis is finished.

If Davis does come 2nd I hope he continues his campaign and I'll follow with Interest before deciding, but I find it close to immpossible he could turn it around.

Mark Fulford
For obvious reasons, I am naming no names but the people in question regard ordinary members of the Conservative Party as by definition racist, sexist and homophobic vermin.

Michael McGowan, once again you're spouting this is outrageous rubbish. You cannot make allegations like this without backing it up. Name the names! If what you’re saying is true, there’s no risk of defamation because there’s no way that a whole meeting is going to conspire to lie in a libel trial.

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