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Rifkind: Unless we address the West Lothian Question the United Kingdom is in great danger

At the Centre for Policy Studies yesterday evening Sir Malcolm Rifkind MP gave an unscripted address entitled The Unfinished Business of Devolution.  In his wide-ranging remarks he explained why his proposal for an English Grand Committee was superior to that reported to be Ken Clarke's preferred answer to the so-called West Lothian Question.  His key messages (not verbatim) are summarised below:

It is wrong to see this as Scotland V England.  The "unfinished business of devolution" is more complex than that.  Wales and Northern Ireland MPs also have an ability to vote on laws that only apply to the English.  When it comes to reviewing the Barnett formula it is important that it is not portrayed as providing justice for England as against Scotland.  There should be a more sensitive analysis of how different parts of Scotland and different parts of England need to be treated differently than now.  Sir Malcolm contended that, in some respects, the Home Counties have more in common with Edinburgh and Liverpool has more in common with Glasgow.

Devolution has changed a lot but far from everything. At least half of what is relevant to Scotland is still determined by the UK Parliament.  Public expenditure, social security, foreign policy, EU policy and immigration are still determined at Westminster.  What is more: the UK is not a federal state but power has been devolved - meaning that the Westminster parliament can at any time, in extremis, over-rule Cardiff, Edinburgh or Belfast - or even revoke devolution completely.

Scotland and Wales are not moving remorselessly to independence.  Every poll showed that support for independence was in the minority and relatively flat.  The SNP are a minority government in Scotland - outnumbered by unionist parties.  Scots voted SNP for a variety of reasons last year and in the same way many opponents of the euro voted for Tony Blair in 1997, many opponents of independence voted for the SNP.  Alex Salmond knows that his best hope for independence is a breakdown in English-Scottish relations.  That is why he opposes proposals like an English Grand Committee because such proposals tackle the injustices that, unmitigated, could eventually produce a breakdown.

Welsh Conservatives back 8.3% pay rise for AMs

Conservative Assembly Members are joining Labour and the LibDems in backing the recommendations of an independent commission set up to assess their levels of pay. Instead of going for the 1.9% increase that MPs are getting, they will get an inflation-busting increase of almost £4,000 (8.3% compared to 2.2% CPI). David Cameron was against an above-inflation rise in MPs' pay.

The Assembly Commission's Chairman, Oxford lecturer Sir Michael Wheeler-Booth, said that the pay rise reflected an increase of responsibilities resulting from increased legislative power in Cardiff, but Plaid Cymru is largely opposing it. Conservative group leader Nick Bourne called PC's position "the worst kind of political opportunism" and said "the people of Wales will see through this posturing".

Welsh Tory leader unapologetic after blog attack on "sub-human" BNP

Nick Bourne AM's personal blog was our blog of the week recently and a post attacking the BNP has reportedly produced 180 complaints to the Welsh Assembly's standards committee.  The leader of the Welsh Tories described the British National Party as a “nasty, mean, distasteful and grubby bunch of sub-human flotsam and jetsam”.

Mr Bourne was unapologetic in a statement to Wales on Sunday:

“I have no intention of withdrawing any of the comments I made about the British National Party and its membership. Nor will I apologise for making them.  The BNP is a divisive, dangerous organisation which exists to spread fear, hatred and bigotry. There is no place in a civilised society for their views and people from all political parties and none should stand together against them.”

I wouldn't use Mr Bourne's language but my guess is that 99% of those 180 complaints were from BNP activists.  Mr Bourne writes an excellent blog and I hope he'll continue to express his views with passion.

Yesterday Plaid and Labour agreed to form a ruling coalition in the Welsh Assembly.  Mr Bourne will lead the opposition to that coalition.  The Welsh Conservatives had hoped to form their own governing alliance with Plaid and the LibDems.

12 July update from the BBC: Bourne cleared by Assembly standing committee

Triple crown of Plaid, Tories and LibDems set to govern Wales

Radio 4's World at One has just reported that a Plaid-Tory-LibDem coalition is "90% likely" to govern Wales.  If this emerges both Wales and Scotland will have nationalist first ministers.  Welsh Tory leader Nick Bourne (who blogs here) has long hoped to put his Tory group into a grand coalition but that hope only became feasible when Mike German AM pulled out of talks to put his LibDem group into coalition with Rhodri Morgan's Welsh Labour party.

Nick Bourne issued the following statement:

"I can confirm today that an approach has been made by Plaid Cymru for preliminary discussions about the possible form of the next Assembly government.  I can also confirm that preliminary talks have already taken place. The stability and credibility of the Assembly, and the delivery of policies that will make a positive difference to the lives of people across Wales remain our key concerns.  Welsh Conservatives have always said that we would be willing to work in government with parties other than Labour to achieve that."

The Conservatives have 12 AMs, Labour 26, Plaid 15 and the LibDems 6.

And how do you rate the Conservative Party's out-of-Westminster leaders?

We've already published the results from the April survey that showed rising member satisfaction with David Cameron and for most of the shadow cabinet.  We also asked what you thought about the three people who lead the Conservative Party in Europe, Scotland and Wales: Timothy Kirkhope MEP, Annabel Goldie MSP and Nick Bourne AM.

Nick Bourne AM, leader of the Welsh Tories since 1999, was least known by respondents.  71% said they did not know enough or anything about him.  Of the 29% willing to express an opinion 22% were satisfied and 7% dissatisfied.  There had been speculation that Mr Bourne might face a leadership challenge after delivering what some thought were below-expectation gains in the May elections but his likeliest successor - Jonathan Morgan AM - told Wales on Sunday that he was 100% behind Bourne's continued leadership.

55% were don't knows about the leader of the Conservative MSPs, Annabel Goldie.  35% were satisfied (10% very) and 10% were dissatisfied.  Ms Goldie hopes she will soon have the opportunity to implement some Conservative manifesto promises.  Refusing to enter any formal pact with any party she has long promised to work with a minority administration - including Alex Salmond's SNP - on implementing Tory manifesto ideas.  Ms Goldie reiterated that promise for yesterday's Scotsman.  Ms Goldie's trickiest decision will be whether or not to proceed with a more separate Scottish party.  In yesterday's Herald, Political Editor Douglas Fraser agreed with ConservativeHome's belief that "splitting could help Tories find their way back from the political wilderness".  Indications are that organised resistance from former Conservative Scottish Secretaries has cooled David Cameron's initial enthusiasm for the split.

Timothy Kirkhope, leader of the Tory MEPs, has a similar dunno rating to Annabel Goldie (56%) but of those willing to express an opinion it is much more negative.  29% are dissatisfied (17% very) and just 15% satisfied.  Awareness of this level of member concern about MEP performance motivated the MEPs' successful attempt to severely limit member involvement in readoption.  ConservativeHome has twice attempted to ask Timothy Kirkhope to answer questions from members but hasn't received any reply.  He is the only elected Conservative to ever decline an opportunity to be accountable to members through the interviews blog.

We'll ask these questions again on occasions.

LIVE elections blog

Enough for now!  Back later...

4.52am: Former and disgraced Welsh Secretary fails in his bid to win a Welsh Assembly seat.

4.47am: Conservative gain Windsor and Maidenhead from LibDems.  Also East Cambridgeshire gained.

4.40am: Tories on 20% in Wales (projected).

4.35am: Tories on just 15% in Scotland.  Let's hope that Cameron will have the courage to pursue that breakaway strategy...

4.24am: 16 gains see Tories in overall control of Malvern Hills.

4.12am: Finally spoke on BBC1.  Been here five hours for thirty seconds of messaging!  The company has been excellent, though.  On again in another 15 or so minutes...

4.05am: Fraser Nelson says a Tartan intifada is underway in Scotland.  England doesn't matter he's saying compared to what is happening to Labour in Scotland. Gordon Brown lives in hostile territory he says.  Too true.  Is Tartan intifada the soundbite of the night?

4.03am: Grant Schapps on BBC says Tory vote share up 2% to 41%.  BBC respond that it's too early to say.

3.58am: Tories retain key northern stronghold of Trafford.

3.54am: Tories doing very well in East Devon.

3.51am: Things are now looking bad for Labour in Scotland.  My guess is that reverses north of the border are going to be the story.

3.46am: SNP gain Glasgow Govan from Labour.

3.45am: Ben Brogan: "GOSSIP JUST IN: Ming Campbell has been spotted in the Pizza Express at Millbank Tower looking in despair. Maybe he knows something."

3.40am: Alex Fergusson (Tory MSP) survives strong challenge.

3.38am: Tories gain in Birmingham.  Now largest party.

3.37am: Unconfirmed reports that Eric Pickles is dancing at CCHQ.

Elections night predictions (1)

One of the stories of tonight might be the rise of The Others - the BNP, the Greens, SNP, Plaid and maybe even UKIP.  Later today we'll be having our now traditional prediction competition for Tory gains but there's three mugs to be won by the three people with the most accurate predictions for the performance of The Others.  Here are the five tests ...

1. Councillors won/ retained by the BNP in today's elections (750 candidates, currently has about 50 councillors in total, none are defending their seats today);
2. Councillors won/ retained by the Greens in today's elections (1419 candidates, currently have 93 councillors in total with 45 defending their seats today);
3. Councillors won/ retained by UKIP in today's elections (1031 candidates, currently has 19 councillors in total);
4. Welsh Assembly seats won by Plaid (Currently has 12 out of 60);
5. Scottish Parliamentary seats won by the SNP (Currently has 25 out of 129).

We may obviously have to wait a few days for definitive results to judge the entries.

Nick Bourne AM responsible for Welsh coalition decisions (except with Labour)

The Press Association reports:

"David Cameron brushed off claims that support for the Tories was stagnating in Welsh opinion polls when he hit the Assembly election trail today. Mr Cameron said a vote for his party was a vote for more "common sense" in Cardiff Bay and that the Conservatives were the only alternative to the "failure" of Labour or the "divorce" of Plaid Cymru.

Two polls, last night and this morning, put the Conservatives in third place behind Labour and Plaid in the race for the Welsh Assembly. On a campaign visit in South Wales, Mr Cameron said: "I don't bother with polls because we are going to have a big poll on election day when real people can get out and cast real votes in real ballot boxes."

Decisions about siding with other parties in a coalition after next Thursday were up to the party's Assembly leader Nick Bourne, he said."

The 18DoughtyStreet crew are also in Wales today, filming special programmes with Welsh bloggers and Assembly members which will be broadcast on Tuesday evening.

Deputy Editor

This Jones shouldn't be difficult to keep up with

Carwyn Jones is Labour AM for Bridgend.  The five pledges on right are taken from his election literature.

Labour's 1997 pledge card was hardly ambitious but Mr Jones' retreat from any kind of boldness deserves wide recognition.

That commitment to continue to have an email address certainly got my pulse racing.

Related link: Tories set to become second party of Wales

Tories set to become second party of Wales

After all the excitement on this blog over the last 24 hours about Scotland...

An ITV Wales poll finds that the Tories are set to become the second largest party after next month's elections to the Cardiff Assembly.  These are the voting intentions of those who describe themselves as "certain to vote":

• Labour: 36% (40% in 2003) in the first-past-the-post constituencies and 35% (37%) via the top-up lists;
• Conservative: 23% (20%) and 24% (19%);
• Plaid: 20% (21%) and 20% (20%)
• Lib Dems: 15% (14%) and 15% (13%).

The poll increases the likelihood of an anti-Labour grand coalition in Wales emerging after May.

Earlier this week on ConservativeHome William Graham AM set out the case for voting Conservative in the Assembly Elections.

Plaid have been running very heavily against 'Labour's Englishness'.  The broadcast below typifies their campaign.

Vote Welsh Conservative for a change

Welsh Assembly group leader Nick Bourne AM and Shadow Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan launched their new campaign slogan last night - "Vote Welsh Conservative for a change".

The Welsh Conservatives are meeting in the Glamorgan County Cricket Club this weekend for their annual conference. In advance of the conference they have pledged to make a 1% efficiency saving on the Assembly's annual budget, and spending it on giving over 300,000 pensioner households a £100 rebate on their council tax bills.

Bourne said at the press conference that the Party's private polling was very positive. Today he will attack the centralisation of power at the Assembly and propose ways to encourage people "to think locally about tackling climate change", such as through a £25m energy-saving light bulb scheme.

The new manifesto, due to published later this month, has caused several internal disagreements however. The main sticking points are proportional representation in local government, the official status of the Welsh language, whether to have a bank holiday on St David's Day, and the extent to which policing powers should be devolved.

Deputy Editor

Year 2(8): Anticipate difficult results in next year's Scottish and Welsh elections

Recommendation 8: Next May’s Scottish and Welsh results are likely to be very difficult for the Conservative Party.  David Cameron has improved the party's opinion poll standing but progress in Wales and Scotland, in particular, is very limited and the party is unlikely to make significant gains.  There is a danger that there may even be some defeats in Scotland.  The party must act now to be able to show that it is making progress in parts of England where there will need to be progress at the General Election.  That means targeting special resources on a few English councils where success can be celebrated on the morning after polling day.  The model is Ken Baker's 1990 tactic of focusing upon winning Wandsworth and Westminster boroughs in an otherwise difficult election year.

Gwlad, gwlad, pleidiol wyf i'm gwlad

Remember John Redwood trying to sing the Welsh national anthem...

Poor Mr Redwood.  Shadow Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan (and leading member of the parliamentary choir) tried to put all that behind the Conservative Party today when she gave a perfect rendition of Hen Wlad fy Nhadau (Land of my Fathers) on BBC Radio Wales.  In the process she raised £460 for today's Children In Need appeal.  Well done, Cheryl.

Could all Labour's enemies form an unlikely coalition to govern Wales?

Last night's Radio 4 Westminster Hour discussed the possibility of a grand anti-Labour coalition forming in the Cardiff Assembly after next May's elections.  Although there have been no opinion polls for the Cardiff Assembly for more than eighteen months Labour look set to lose their wafer-thin majority.

Nick Bourne AM, Leader of the Welsh Tories, says that the other Assembly parties should hesitate before propping up a "decaying, damaging and disastrous" minority Labour administration and appeared very open to working with the Liberal Democrats, Plaid and independents in keeping Labour out of office and fulfilling the constitutional duty to govern.  The Radio 4 package noted a recent manoeuvre whereby the opposition parties had joined together to successfully oppose Labour's budget.

Mr Bourne's openness to a grand coalition - what he calls an "unlikely alliance" - may not be shared by grassroots Welsh Tories. There remains suspicion of the Cardiff Assembly amongst the rank-and-file; suspicion that was recently voiced by Preseli Pembrokeshire MP Stephen Crabb on his blog. There will also be big question marks about the desirability of working with Assembly Members - many of whom are to the left of Welsh Labour.

Related link: William Graham AM's birds-eye view of the Welsh Assembly