ConservativeHome's ToryDiary

'New Labour has already won the next election'

That's the view of The Economist's Bagehot.  The Conservatives may be 26% ahead (we couldn't resist mentioning that again) but, writes Bagehot, "the revival of the Conservatives under David Cameron arguably represents the project's final triumph".  Here are The Economist's arguments for the triumph of New Labour and, in italics, our responses to them:

1. The emergence of a more compassionate conservatism: "The party that opposed the establishment of the minimum wage and much of Mr Brown's tacit redistribution now has the chutzpah to present itself as the champion of the poor, and even as the avenger of inequality. Eleven years of New Labour has made compassion compulsory."  30% true.  The Conservatives are rediscovering the party's one nation tradition and will not challenge key ingredients of the Labour programme, eg the minimum wage but the Conservative approach to poverty will be very different.  David Cameron writes this in today's Independent: "We can see that in the 20th century, the methods of the centre-left – principally income redistribution and social programmes run by the state – had considerable success in relieving poverty. It would be churlish to pretend otherwise. But those methods have now run their course. The returns from big state intervention are not just diminishing, they are disappearing."  A Tory approach to poverty-fighting is going to be much more multidimensional.  The Centre for Social Justice emphasises smaller, innovative charities not Labour's big, statist voluntary groups.  There'll be much more emphasis on the family, school choice and drug rehabilitation.  Ray Lewis, Boris' new deputy, and Shaun Bailey, our Hammersmith candidate, are both poverty-fighters and both reject huge parts of Labour's approach to exclusion.

The Chingford skinhead mugs Michael Gove

Lord Tebbit has written a letter to this week's Spectator in response to an article from Michael Gove.  The full text is printed below...

"Sir: Michael Gove (Politics, 23 February) gives a eulogy to Tony Blair, 'I admired Tony Blair. I knew Tony Blair'.

I had hoped that David Cameron's claim to be 'the heir to Blair' was just a silly mistake springing from inexperience. It is more worrying to find that Blair worship is now the doctrine of modern compassionate Conservatism. No wonder 40 per cent of electors are unwilling to vote; nor that, when asked which party could best meet any challenge facing Britain, those saying 'neither' regularly exceed those naming either party.

Blair's admirers in the shadow Cabinet might reflect on his record: the bungled war on Iraq, the dispatch of men and women to fight without the equipment they need, the sensational increases in tax without measurable improvement in services, the debauchment of the civil service, the identity card fiasco, the criminal justice fiasco, his surrender of British sovereignty to Brussels, his remorseless attacks on the conventional family, despoliation of education, use of the benefit system to deepen the poverty trap, lesser incentives to work or save, his fuelling of the culture of drugs, alcohol, yobbery and violent crime which has left the Home Secretary fearful of walking the streets of London at night.

It was Blair who introduced uncontrolled, unmeasured immigration of people determined not to integrate, but to establish, first ghettoes, and now demands for separate legal jurisdiction. In biblical terms, Blairism is the poisonous tree which can give forth only poisonous fruit and must be rooted out. In 2005 Blair had the votes of only 21.6 per cent of the electorate. With the poisonous tree of Blairism planted in the shadow Cabinet, where can the other 78.4 per cent turn?"

Can devout Christians be Prime Minister?

The former Liberal Democrat leader, Menzies Campbell, appeared yesterday to question the compatibility of serious Christianity with electoral acceptability.  Sir Ming's contribution to BBC1's Blair Years was quoted in an Independent on Sunday story about Tony Blair's faith:

"The public might have been less willing to give [Blair] the triumph of three consecutive general election victories if they'd known the extent to which ethical values would overshadow pragmatism."

Really?  In my experience, a lot of churchgoers vote for the LibDems.  I hope that they have the opportunity to study Sir Ming's ill-defined scepticism towards "ethical values".

For me, mainstream Christianity has been and is a force for good in public life.  This has been true historically and is true now.  I'm not going to name names but in today's Conservative Party, a large number of churchgoers are leading Tory thinking on social justice at home, human rights abroad and a commitment to better stewardship of the environment.  In America it is the much-maligned Christian Right that is challenging the Republicans to think more about the urban poor and international challenges like Darfur.    

Although a lot is made of Tony Blair's Christianity it was not applied predictably.  I don't want to question his sincerity but, as a legislator, he was not, for example, a reliable defender of the unborn.  The discussions he has had with priests about his spiritual journey to Rome must have been interesting.

As for David Cameron, he has been very private about his faith.  Last March he did venture this, however: "Yes, I'm a little more than an Easter and Christmas Christian. I go to church about once a month - so I'm a typical Church of England, slightly laid-back Christian."

The key reason why many Britons have turned against religion is probably fear of Islamic extremism.  Melanie Phillips addresses this in her Mail column today:

"Islamic terrorism and the demented beliefs that fuel it have given all religion a bad name.  Especially these days when people turn themselves into human bombs and blow countless innocents to bits in the expectation that they will be rewarded with 72 virgins in paradise."

The challenge for those who believe that politics is enriched by the involvement of Christians, Jews and moderate Muslims is to take the lead in opposing extremist followers of religion.  Otherwise the idea will grow that all religion is bad and opposition to fundamentalist schools will, for example, see renewed moves against all faith schools and charities.  The main losers of such moves will be the children who then get educated at less good schools and the many beneficiaries of faith-based social projects.

In this context, it is regrettable that the Archbishop of Canterbury used an interview with a Muslim lifestyle magazine to knock America and fail to condemn Islamic violence.

Related link: Michael Gove defends the power of religious faith

Vaizey attacks "incredible" decision of BBC to cut coverage of Blair's farwell statement to Commons

In my live blog of today's historic PMQs I wrote this: "In what has to be one of the lowest points in public service broadcasting BBC2's Daily Politics coverage stops halfway through the Prime Minister's concluding remarks to cut to Wimbledon."

Shadow Culture minister Ed Vaizey MP has just emailed me this reaction to the BBC's decision:

"I find it incredible, whatever your view of Blair, that the BBC should cut historic coverage of a unique parliamentary affair to cover a second round match at Wimbledon."

4.30pm update: Just spoken to IDS.  He was part of the Daily Politics panel when the coverage was cut.  As he walked through the BBC offices at Millbank he said that there was a furious reaction with BBC staffers protesting with strings of four letter words!  Iain himself said that it was an "appalling" decision.

Tony Blair's handsome tribute to Gordon Brown

'My friend of twenty years... strong... sound in his convictions... every quality to mark him out as a great Prime Minister for our country... his best is as good as it gets...'

Tony Blair (who didn't mention Harriet Harman) only gave a short speech and disappeared off the stage with a video separating his departure and Brown's speech.

...Blair back on after video to embrace Brown.  Massive Union Jack on the video screen.

'The Garden Look' and other insights into the Blair years

A few interesting observations from tonight's Channel 4 programme, The Rise And Fall Of Tony Blair:

1. At 6am on the morning after Labour's 1997 General Election victory, Peter Mandelson called an emergency meeting to discuss how to deal with the unexpectedly large number of Labour MPs who had been elected. He wanted to identify the troublemakers.
2. Two-thirds of his Cabinet in a tour-de-table said 'no' to the Millennium Dome but Tony Blair had held a secret meeting with Michael Heseltine before the General Election in which he had promised to continue with the Dome folly.  This wasn't the only early example of Blair's cavalier attitude to Cabinet Government.  Cabinet Secretary Robin Butler protested that the Bank of England independence announcement should be approved by Cabinet.  After some disagreement Blair agreed to 'phone Cabinet ministers with the news.  Estelle Morris says that the Cabinet became a place to "put down a marker" but never to make a decision.
3. The TB-GBs began from the beginning according to Frank Field with the Chancellor defying Blair from 1997 - bringing certain people to meetings, for example, in direct contradiction of instructions from Tony Blair.
4. Such was the loathing between Brown and Mandelson that the Brownites leaked details of the Geoffrey Robinson home loan to the then Trade Secretary.
5. Peter Stothard, former Editor of The Times, said that a meeting with Tony Blair on his own was flat but when Alastair Campbell was there the meeting had "a crackle" and things seemed to get done.  Blair adviser Peter Hyman said that Campbell made the Number Ten team feel like winners - reassuring the team that nothing that the press or opposition threw at them would damage Labour (at least in the first term).
6. Baroness Jay gave a revealing insight into Tony Blair's difficulty with detail.  She described 'The Garden Look' that Tony Blair adopted whenever a discussion of the machinery/ nitty-gritty of government, as she called it, began.  He would start looking towards the Number Ten garden - away from his notes - when she or other ministers focused on the complexity of an issue.
7. Numerous sources confirmed that the Bush White House would not have gone to the UN for a second resolution on the Iraq war if Tony Blair hadn't demanded it (and the critics say Blair has never influenced Bush).
8. According to Peter Stothard, Gordon Brown came very close to opposing at least the timing of the Iraq war - asking hard and persistent questions about why Britain and America had to go to war when they did.  'Why couldn't we wait?' he kept asking.

All in all a fascinating two hours of telly.  Congratulations to Andrew Rawnsley and his team.  The two-part documentary concludes on Monday at 8pm.

PS Iain Dale is playing Fantasy Gordon Brown Cabinet.

What can Conservatives learn from Blair? (Part Three)

Tim Montgomerie and Matthew D'Ancona have been having an open email exchange on what we can and should learn from Blair. This is Tim's reply to Matthew's third and final email:

"Sorry for the delay in replying - I'm on my way to Northern Ireland.  Many people would, of course, say that the peace process was Blair's greatest achievement.  I'm less sure.  I believe that we could have got to this point without the constant appeasement of Sinn Fein at the expense of the SDLP.  I bow to your superior knowledge of Ulster politics, Matt, but I fear that the Blair government has adopted the same 'appease the extremists model' in its relations with Britain's Islamic communities and has sidelined more moderate Muslim groups.  Thanks btw for your kind words about ConservativeHome's "lionhearted" position on the war on terror. The Hawk is something of an endangered species in the Conservative Party - not least on ConservativeHome threads - and it's important we stick together.  I'm holding on to the hope of Liam Fox's line - hawks live a lot longer than doves!

On crime, I agree with you about the importance of prison. Michael Howard was a very disappointing Tory leader but he was a great Home Secretary and we can all sleep more safely in our beds because of his incarceration policies.  His achievement in four years as Home Secretary is greater than anything Blair did as PM.  But I really don't see the problem you have with the tough on crime slogan.  It was empty in Blair's hands but it needn't be.  I'm very hopeful that David Cameron's policies on families, social; enterprise and drug rehab will rescue many people from the conveyor belt to crime.  This may not be a new thought but Blair's encapsulation of the best way of tackling crime did capture the imagination and was crucial to the establishment of the New Labour brand.

Let's call a truce on tax.  I agree that George Osborne wants to cut taxes and you're right to warn that voters suspect we want to cut taxes for our rich pals.  The response to that suspicion, however, is to give the lion's share of tax cuts to poorer people and as tax relief to deprived communities.  If any tax relief promises are eve-of-poll (as with Oliver Letwin's 2005 pledges) they're unlikely to be believed and won't help us energise those hard-pressed taxpaying voters that we might need for victory.

Finally, I didn't pick up properly on your very first thoughts about internationalism. Blair's liberal interventionism often made me proud to be British. In Sierra Leone.  In Kosovo.  In increasing UK foreign aid.  Conservatives must never be isolationists.  We must also stay close to our best friends - the USA, Israel, Australia, Canada.  Blair never neglected friendships with those countries.  Neither must Conservatives."

For further reading on Blair's legacy, the National Review has put together a number of 200 word pieces from British and American commentators.

What can Conservatives learn from Blair?

Matthew d'Ancona, Editor of The Spectator, has just sent an email to me about what Tories can learn from Tony Blair.  Read it on The Spectator's new Coffee House blog.  Here's my reply...

"Thanks Matt and for suggesting this exchange. But what’s this reference to “anarcho-syndicalism”?  Have you been to the Oliver Letwin school of political communication?

I agree with nearly all of what you write – particularly the fact that Conservatives cannot rely upon unhappiness with Labour to guarantee victory.  At the moment the Tories aren’t really enthusing people enough.  Watching BBC Parliament’s Bank Holiday rerun of the 1997 General Election (yes, aren’t I sad?) reminded me how the nation really bought into the promise of New Labour.  The electorate may be more cynical today because of the Blair decade of spin’n’squander but David Cameron needs to find a fifth gear at some point and communicate more passion.  At the moment he communicates reasonableness but I don’t think that that’ll be enough.  A very tough agenda on crime will probably be a vote maximiser at the next election.  We should copy some of Labour’s passion on crime but by promising to build, for example, on what Giuliani did in New York, and actually convince people that we have the ideas to deliver.

You’re right, too, about reassuring on macroeconomic stability but voters also want more than that.  I worry that you and the Tory leadership underestimate public anger at Labour’s waste and are too eager to switch focus away from economic issues.  I’ve spent most of my political life encouraging a greater Conservative focus on social issues and welcome the greener, gentler Conservatism.  But we may be reaching crunchier economic times because of competition from the east and because Gordon’s Brown microeconomic mismanagement will soon start to bite.  Just as the Thatcher economic reforms only started to really work after five and more years, Gordon Brown’s taxes and regulations are only just beginning to hurt.  This is precisely the wrong time for Conservatives to be giving the impression that economics is somehow less important.

The most important lesson from Blair for me is the need for Project Cameron to be more ambitious.  Blair at his best was greedy to occupy every inch of the political stage.  Conservatives weren’t allowed to get any advantage on any salient issue.  Project Cameron must look more like a government-in-waiting and less like the champion for a few single issues.

Over to you…

Tim"

Matt's response to Tim's response is now on The Spectator's blog.

Tim's reply to Matt's reply:

"Hug-a-hoodie was a disaster as a political expression (although it was invented by a Labour-supporting journalist) but it actually captured something very important.  For once I’m with the mods, Matt!  Many criminals start off as unloved boys who turn to gangs for the kind of affirmation and identity that they should get at home.  Blair was right that society needs to be tough on the causes of crime as well as crime itself.  Our challenge – as is often the case - is to live up to the Blair rhetoric in ways that he never did.  I’m actually very proud of David Cameron’s message on crime.  There’s still the ‘lock ‘em up’ threat for persistent and serious offenders but there’s a wise and compassionate commitment to help people off the conveyor belt before that point of serious criminality.  My hope is that over the remainder of the parliament he will find that fifth gear on crime and make it a central issue at the next election.

Good to read your affirmation of the importance of lower taxation.  I hope you’re right that Team Cameron really wants to lower the tax burden.  I don’t feel they are communicating real intent yet.  And, yes, reassurance that ‘the party of Black Wednesday’ can be trusted again is really important but why did we have that nonsense that lower taxation and economic stability are somehow opposed?  We shouldn’t be doing our opponents’ intellectual work for them. 

What is Cameron’s mission?  I’d say it must be to look like (and be) the Prime Minister in waiting.  One of the key ingredients of that must be to reassure voters that he will keep this nation safe in a time of war.  Blair understands that we are at war but he has prosecuted the war with insufficient competence.  I don’t always get the impression that David Cameron understands the scale of the threat we face from Islamic fascism and that we have to be on the offensive to counter it.  He certainly didn’t mention security issues as one of his priorities in a recent interview.

Happy to wrap this discussion up tomorrow..."

Matthew d'Ancona's third and final email can be read here.  Tim will post his final email later.

Blog reaction to Blair resignation

LibDemVoice: "The Government was today accused of breaking the law in an attempt to bury bad news after waiting until the day of Tony Blair’s resignation to publish a report on ID cards that reveals the cost of the project has gone up by £640m since October."

Danny Finkelstein: "Tony Blair's government has changed this country fundamentally. Mass immigration, gay rights, independence of the Bank of England, devolution, our interventionist foreign policy doctrine, an uncertain future for our relationship with the United States - Britain is very different as a result of this Prime Minister's tenure."

Ben Brogan: "One can just detect the beginnings of a "missing you already" mood, if only because of the lavish coverage on the telly this morning. And no wonder. It was an extraordinary farewell statement by Tony Blair, a vintage performance by the great showman. As he has done so many times before, he demonstrated why he remains such a formidable politician. So much of his address was quotable ("defiant, defensive, chauvinistic" is Sir Menzies Campbell's pithy verdict just now)."

Iain Dale: "I have to pinch myself that I am listening to this rubbish. This speech demeans Blair. His constant craving for approval is stomach churning. "I did what I thought was right" he has said - twice. He sounds as if he is facing a war crimes tribunal rather than making a resignation statement. It was actually very American in tone - very emotional. Very unbritish, if you like."

Dizzy: "Pension funds raided and plundered, tax credit fiascos, SureStart failure, massive erosion of civil liberties, ID cards, a crumbling debt ridden NHS. Oh wait, hang on a second, most of those things are the fault of the guy who will take the Crown."

PS The Speaker has just addressed Gordon Brown as Prime Minister during Treasury Questions.  Not quite yet, Mr Martin!

Tony Blair's resignation speech

The following highlights are not verbatim unless in speech marks...

12.21: It's been an honour to have been Prime Minister.  I think I have got lots of things right.  Apologies for the times I have fallen short.  "Good luck."

12.19: "The British people are special... This is a blessed nation. This is the greatest nation on earth."

12.18: "Hand on heart, I did what I thought was right.  I may have been wrong.  That's your call."

12.16: We cannot give up in Iraq. The terrorists won't.

12.12: On fighting poverty in Africa, combating climate change and fighting terrorism Britain is not a follower in the world - but a leader.

12.10: I am proud of the way we have changed the culture of Britain: the minimum wage, paid holidays, paid maternity pay, equality for gay people.

12.08: No other post-war government has presided over more jobs, less unemployment, lower crime, more spending on health and education and economic growth in every quarter.

12.05: I will stand down as Prime Minister on 27th June.

Related link: A first judgment on the Blair years by Nick Wood

It's official: Blair to resign tomorrow

This from the Press Association:

"Tony Blair is set to announce that he is stepping down as Labour leader in the North East, triggering a contest that will see him quit as Prime Minister within weeks, Downing Street has confirmed.

Mr Blair will brief Cabinet colleagues on his intentions at their regular No 10 meeting, then fly to his Sedgefield constituency to make public his resignation notice.  He will not make a statement as he leaves for his constituency, said his official spokesman.

The spokesman said: "There will be a Cabinet meeting. I don't think that will be quite as long as usual.  The Prime Minister will then go elsewhere to make an announcement and that will be all that happens.  There will be nothing said in Downing Street."

I cannot immediately think of anything to add to ConservativeHome's statement on the end of Blair from last September: Our deadliest political opponent leaves the stage.

A 6pm PS: Launching on YouTube very soon is a musical video (with iTunes download facility)  dedicated to reminding people of the Brown-Blair years.  All subscribers to ConservativeHome will receive it first.  Click here if you are not already on our mailing list.

Things can only get better...

BBC Parliament is replaying its 1997 General Election coverage today and the Daily Mail's Benedict Brogan is enjoying the trip down memory lane.  Ben has just blogged two priceless quotes from that dark night...

Gordon Brown: "Under Tony Blair's magnificent leadership the Labour party is now ready to rebuild the bond of trust between the British people and their government."

Tony Blair: "I feel a deep sense of honour, a deep sense of responsibility, a deep sense of humility. You have put your trust in me and I intend to repay that trust. I will not let you down."

Ten years of spin'n'squander later, recent polling found that barely a quarter of British voters trust Tony Blair.

5.30pm: Some screen captures from that night...

Michael Portillo is defeated...

...alongside a number of other senior Tories who were overwhelmed by Peter Snow's landslide...

Tony Blair greets Neil Kinnock outside the Royal Festival Hall celebration party:

Tony Blair - We were elected as New Labour and we will govern as New Labour:

What you think of Tony Blair...

These are the first results of ConservativeHome's April survey of nearly 2,000 readers.  Ten years after Tony Blair became Britain's Prime Minister you have little affection or respect for him.  The only consolation for Mr Blair is that 44.5% agree that he was our party's most devastating political opponent.  Nearly a third agree that he forced the Conservative Party to the centre.

Noon update: This BBC thread more than captures the average Briton's anger with Tony Blair.  And remember - this is the BBC!

"Ten years that ruined Britain"

Max Hastings has written an overview of Tony Blair's ten years in office for today's Daily Mail.  Five extracts are published below:

Education, education, education?
"For all the deceits peddled by examination authorities, our children are costing more to learn less. A third of secondary school pupils have some record of truancy.  Most school-leavers are tossed exam certificates without achieving real skills in literacy and numeracy, never mind knowledge.  Our great universities have fallen victim to class-war football, with Gordon Brown the foremost government striker.  More and more unqualified teenagers from state schools are pushed towards Oxbridge, while private school pupils are deliberately excluded.  Excellence drains away. Under-funded British universities, subject to relentless government meddling, slip ever further behind their American counterparts."

Fatter and fatter government
"In the workplace, the Government has promoted employee rights at the expense of a crippling impact on productivity, in which Britain slips ever further down on the global scale.  Public sector workers have prospered. Indeed, thanks to nice Mr Alan Johnson (when he was Pensions Minister), they are almost the only ones left who can look forward to a decent pension.  The economy is now frighteningly dependent on public sector jobs - non-productive ones, funded by the rest of us - to sustain employment."

Whiter than white?
"The Blair years have been a boom time for: Ann Summers sex shops (up from 13 to 134 since 1997); free Viagra; CCTV cameras; wind farms; John Prescott; Peter Mandelson; Cherie Blair's lecture income; the prison population; Alastair Campbell; private security guards; sales of illegal drugs; binge-drinking; City salaries; Ken Livingstone; childhood obesity; and grossly incompetent management of the rail system."

Nanny state Britain
"The past decade has been a woeful time for personal freedoms. Forget, for a moment, the excesses of government anti-terrorist legislation.  There is something mad about any government which persecutes smokers to the point where they will shortly be banned even from private clubs, yet regards marijuana with far less hostility than cigarettes.  Labour whipped many more MPs into the House of Commons to ban fox-hunting than ever turn out to debate child cruelty.  The Health and Safety Executive (HSE) has become an enforcement arm of Blairism, intruding its meddling fingers into every corner of our lives."

Uncontrolled immigration
"Some might forgive Tony Blair for the catastrophe of Iraq, but will never forgive his abject failure to control immigration.  According to official figures - and these, of course, ignore the countless numbers of illegal immigrants - the population of Britain grew by 185,000 in 2005 because of immigration, a trend which means well over a million a decade.  Many of the new arrivals not only do not speak our language, but actively reject our values and way of life.  They want to come because Britain is famously the softest touch in the world for access, public money and housing.  Nobody need agree to anything, least of all loyalty to Queen and country, before being waved through the door.  Few Labour ministers care sixpence about the disastrous impact of this influx on social services, housing, race relations and the sense of British nationality."

Read the full article here.

Does Blair look bovvered?

A reminder of Blair from his best and most politically potent days... Very funny and there's no way Brown will ever connect in the same way with voters.

Public reject Blair as a "pretty straight kind of guy"

A poll for tomorrow's Sunday Times (not yet online) rejects Blair's famous early years claim to be a pretty straight kind of guy.  Just 16% told YouGov that they saw the Prime Minister as "honest and straightforward."  Over half (56%) said they believe he awarded peerages in return for loans/ donations to the Labour Party.  55% want Tony Blair to leave Downing Street now.

Despite Labour's woes the Tory lead is down slightly on the previous YouGov survey.  The Tories enjoy a 37% to 32% advantage with the LibDems unchanged on 18%.

The end of Blair: Tories up the rhetoric

"People are really beginning to feel that this Government is like a house with a door that's rotting and they want to boot it off its hinges."

- David Cameron

"It is not in the national interest for the Prime Minister to carry on.  I think his continuation in office is an act of selfishness of historic proportions."

- Shadow Defence Secretary Liam Fox

56% want Blair to go now as loans-for-peerages inquiry is set to lead to three charges

An ICM survey for the Sunday Express finds that 56% of voters are unwilling to wait for Tony Blair to go in the summer and want him to leave now.  43% of Labour supporters want him to go now.

Mr Blair's diminishing reputation has been further undermined by two more stories this weekend.

First is today's News of the World story that three people are set to be charged in the cash-for-honours enquiry.  They are Lord Levy and the Downing Street head of government relations, Ruth Turner, and also the businessman Sir Christopher Evans who faces a charge under the 1925 Honours (Prevention of Abuse) Act because of his lending to Labour.  Evidence from the Prime Minister's political secretary John McTernan "started the dominos falling," says the News of the World.

Meanwhile Welsh Tory MP David Davies is writing to the Prime Minister about yesterday's Daily Mail revelation that Tony Blair has bought a fifth house - meaning likely mortgage debts of £5m when the Blairs' current earnings could only justify borrowings of about £1.3m.  This is what Mr Davies tells The Sunday Telegraph:

"I find it astonishing that the Prime Minister feels the need for another house.  I don't believe he can afford them on the basis of his current salary, and I assume he must have secured the mortgage on the basis of future earnings.  I will be writing to Downing Street to find out what public funds, if any, are being spent on the house."

blairfoundation.org.uk

The Independent on Sunday reports that US-born socialite Martha Greene (profiled here in the Daily Mail) has registered the blairfoundation.org.uk domain name for her new friends, Tony and Cherie.  Witty ideas please for what The Blair Foundation might do...

Blair attacks Cameron from the right

Yesterday I described Tony Blair as our party's deadliest ever political opponent.  Central to his political potency has been his ability to occupy all parts of the political spectrum and to attack from all directions.  That ability was on full display yesterday in his attack on David Cameron:

"The first rule of politics: there are no rules. You make your own luck.  There's no rule that says the Tories have got to come back.  David Cameron's Tories?  My advice: get after them.  His foreign policy.  Pander to anti-Americanism by stepping back from America.  Pander to the Eurosceptics through isolation in Europe.  Sacrificing British influence for Party expediency is not a policy worthy of a Prime Minister.  His immigration policy.  Says he'll sort out illegal immigration, but opposes Identity Cards, the one thing essential to do it.  His energy policy.  Nuclear power "only as a last resort".  It's not a multiple choice quiz question, Mr Cameron.   We need to decide now otherwise in 10 years time we will be importing expensive fossil fuels and Britain's economy will suffer.  He wants tax cuts and more spending, with the same money.  He wants a Bill of Rights for Britain drafted by a Committee of Lawyers.   Have you ever tried drafting anything with a Committee of Lawyers?  And his policy for the old lady terrorised by the young thug is that she should put her arm round him and give him a nice, big hug.  Built to last?  They haven't even laid the foundation stone. If we can't take this lot apart in the next few years we shouldn't be in the business of politics at all."

Forget for the moment Mr Blair's inability to deliver, as the New Statesman's Martin Bright said on last night's Newsnight, most of these attacks are from what were traditionally seen as the territory of the right.  Mr Blair is criticising Mr Cameron for anti-Americanism, for being soft on crime and immigration, for failing to back nuclear power and for passing policy-making to a committee for lawyers.  The red-cornered BBC appears to be institutionally incapable of questioning David Cameron from the right.  Tony Blair has given the Corporation a text book example of how to do so.

BACK NOT FORWARD: By way of a footnote it is interesting that Bill Clinton will be addressing Labour's conference today.  It's another sign of Labour's backward looking stance.  Labour have yesteryear's American President as their main international guest.  The Tories have John McCain - perhaps the next occupant of the White House.  As David Cameron said to Tony Blair during their first PMQs: You were the future once.

Our deadliest political opponent leaves the stage

I've just listened to Tony Blair's speech and it was a great speech - perhaps his greatest conference speech.  He is the great performer.  The speech contained an attack on David Cameron that will resonate with many of the Tory leader's internal opponents, a compelling defence of his role in the post 9/11 war on terror and some very funny lines - he joked that he knew, at least, that his wife would never run off with the bloke next door.

The gap between Mr Blair's rhetoric and his record is, of course, so wide that few will believe much of what he said.  'Tony Blair 2006' is not the political sensation that was 'Tony Blair 1997'.  Nine years of spin and squander have eroded nearly all of the man's political potency.

But Tories should not be under any illusions as to the significance of what is happening.  The Blair era is coming to an end and with it we are seeing the end of our party's most formidable ever opponent.  For more than a decade he has confounded the Conservative Party at almost every turn.  He has led deep raids into our natural territory - geographically and ideologically.

The Blair years have been the years of greatest trial for the Conservative Party.  That is no coincidence.  Politics is going to be different in the Post-Blair era.  Our most deadly political opponent is about to leave the stage.  That can only be good news.

Comparing the end of Blair to the end of Thatcher

On Radio 4 this morning, Jim Naughtie presented How to Topple a Prime Minister.  It was a reflection on the end of the Thatcher premiership and included interviews with Ken Clarke, Geoffrey Howe, Kenneth Baker and John Wakeham.  The programme looked for comparisons with then and the looming end of Tony Blair's own premiership.  The graphic below summarises some of the programme's observations and adds a few of ConservativeHome's own.

The slow death of the Blair premiership

Sky News is reporting that Tony Blair's meeting with Labour MPs went well.  There was lots of banging of parliamentary desks after Labour's leader elaborated on his promise to ensure an orderly transition to his successor.  The elaboration consisted of a commitment to give his successor enough time to bed into the job of being PM before the next General Election.  Earlier in the day, at a news conference, a sweaty Mr Blair insisted that Gordon Brown was still his preferred successor.

One of the reasons Mr B's encounter with Labour MPs "went well" was that no member of the left-wing Campaign Group of MPs was called to ask a question.  Perhaps the same New Labourites who silenced 82 year-old Walter Wolfgang at last year's Labour conference were in charge of tonight's proceedings?

Mr Blair may have secured a temporary easing of hostilities tonight but his premiership is slowly bleeding to death.  John Reid admitted earlier today that at least 150 foreign prisoners not considered for deportation had committed very serious offences - almost twice as many as originally admitted.  More revelations about John Prescott are in Fleet Street's pipeline, Scotland Yard is still investigating loans-for-peerages and Labour MPs are not going to keep quiet when Tony Blair brings forward further public service reforms.  ConservativeHome predicts that plans for a new generation of nuclear power stations may be the straw that breaks the back... 

Tony's troubles

The Tories' "not quite 40%" and the subsequent reshuffle have sparked open warfare between the Brownites and Blairites.

Tony Blair will be meeting with the parliamentary Labour party today, knowing that up to fifty Labour MPs are rumoured to have signed a letter asking him to resign. Today's newspaper commentators are already buzzing with the smell of blood. Roy Hattersley challenges Blair's motives and Tim Hames wonders if Blair is a handicap to the cause of Blairism.

Jackie Ashley believes that whilst Blair has made the cabinet more Blairite, the parliamentary party has turned more Brownite. Some might speculate that rather than a defiant reshuffle, it was putting the Blairite cowboys in the same pot so that the Brownite Red Indians can come to power in one foul sweep - making the change of leadership a clear change in the party in the public's eye.

The Guardian leader writers are anxious about how this will pan out:

"Mr Blair has to beware of allowing his premiership to descend into a vanity project, while Mr Brown has to beware of allowing his challenge to be seen as a return to Labour's bad old days."

The Telegraph believes that Blair's premiership is already descending into a petty, futile project and has achieved all that it is going to achieve. The Times however, believes we should all step back and let the Government carry out reforms for a while.

It does seem clear that the Labour party, and therefore the government, is not functioning as a machine just one year after winning a general election. This can only be good for the Conservatives.

Deputy Editor

Labour used to be good at news management

Links to what the papers are writing about the local elections and reshuffle can be found on ConservativeHome's frontpage.