Cameron's task is harder than Thatcher's
We hoped to review the first in the series of eight Margaret Thatcher DVDs that The Telegraph is giving away from today but can't because ConHome's copy arrived with its DVD missing. The first DVD is about The Making of Margaret Thatcher. Apparently!
The series couldn't have come at a worse time for Gordon Brown. The focus on her resilience and decisiveness is such a contrast with Mr Brown's dithering. Matthew Parris and Martin Kettle have written devastating pieces about the current occupant of Number Ten in their must-read Saturday columns.
Margaret Thatcher's election in 1979 wasn't easy, of course. Most of all she had to overcome resistance to the idea of a woman Prime Minister. Was she tough enough for the very large challenges that Britain faced at the end of the 1970s? Memories of the failed Heath government were also much more recent and she was a reasonably prominent member of that administration. There are many ways, however, in which her task was easier than that facing David Cameron today:
- Britain was in a state of economic collapse in 1979. It's not clear that Britain's economic problems will get as bad as the Winter of Discontent by 2010. We must certainly hope not.
- Margaret Thatcher was much closer to a parliamentary majority when she was Leader of the Opposition. The Tories won 276 MPs at the second 1974 election; 78 more than Michael Howard won in 2005.
- The Liberals had just 13 seats in 1979. Today the LibDems hold 62 seats - many of which have always been essential to a working parliamentary majority for the Conservatives. Labour unpopularity won't produce an automatic Tory win. Conservatives have to oust LibDems too.
- Margaret Thatcher was able to win a majority over Labour of 44 seats by polling nearly 44% against Callaghan's 37%. Put those numbers into electoralcalculus.co.uk today (with the LibDems on a squeezed 15%) and the Tories are eight seats short of a majority. The electoral mountain facing the Conservatives has been catalogued by Conor Burns for ConservativeHome.
- Incumbency is more protected. All MPs now enjoy large allowances with which to communicate with their constituents. It was much more expensive for individual MPs to communicate with their voters in 1979 and they were consequently more at the mercy of national trends.
- The Conservative Party membership is much smaller and less docile. Membership is now about 250,000. Tory membership was much younger and larger in 1979 (although Labour also had more infantry for the 'ground war' too). The Boris campaign is finding very uneven levels of activity as it aims to maximise turnout in London's outer boroughs. The party is also more demanding than in 1979. It was then a largely pragmatic party of government. Mrs Thatcher changed that herself. It now expects more red meat from its leadership. It's not so ready to follow any kind of agenda.
- Levels of apathy are now much greater. Voters unhappy with Labour can vote LibDem or stay-at-home. It's no longer enough to say 'governments lose elections, oppositions don't win them'. In order to climb the electoral mountain the Conservatives need to persuade voters that they are superior to the other parties.
- Selling the Conservative Party to voters is harder in today's media age. In 1979 more people read newspapers and millions more tuned into the news bulletins of the three nationwide TV networks. Today's Conservative Party - in order to overcome the apathy factor - has to find a way of communicating with millions who never watch the mainstream channels or pick up a newspaper. The Brown-Blair years of spin have also trashed the standing of politicians; Margaret Thatcher said something notable to the BBC1 Nine'o'clock News in 1979 and she had a big audience that was ready to believe her. She could also be sure that The Daily Mail and The Sun and The Telegraph and the Times and The Express would report and analyse her words for a number of days afterwards. In 1997 voters are more cynical and the rapidity of the news cycle makes it very hard for any message to stick.
Cameron has advantages. The SNP threat to Labour in Scotland is particularly significant but he has a tough challenge to win the next election. That's probably why the Westminster insiders that contribute to the PoliticsHomeIndex still expect a hung parliament. The 1st May elections are very important. Up until now Labour unity has been impressive. The Conservatives are hoping to smash that unity with victories in London and across the country. George Osborne is making a big speech on the economy on Monday as part of the 1st May attack plan. ConservativeHome will be there to cover it.






































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