ConservativeHome's ToryDiary

Accommodation in Birmingham

We've received a handful of emails complaining about the cost and scarcity of accommodation in Birmingham for this year's autumn Party Conference.  One correspondent said that she was paying double what she has usually paid for seaside accommodation.  How are others doing in their search for sleeping quarters?

1pm: Richard Robinson (tongue-in-cheek) suggests it might be cheaper for everyone if we conferenced in Malaga.  Cheaper but what about the carbon footprint Richard!?

Does it matter who has the first Conference?

Over at CentreRight Dan Hamilton notes that John McCain is 5% ahead in a new poll of likely voters.  In RealClearPolitics' poll of polls the Obama lead is down to just 1.3%.  Dan quotes the opinion of pollster John Zogby: "McCain has changed the dynamic of the race heading into the two conventions. That puts more pressure on Obama to go to Denver and effectively define himself and McCain.”

Which got us thinking... does the order of conventions/ conferences matter?  The Democrats always go first in American politics.  Labour always meet before us in the UK Party Conference calendar.  Is there an advantage in getting there first and defining the agenda (having the first penalty kick and putting the pressure on the team that follows) or is there a bigger advantage in having the last word (as Cameron did (spectacularly) last year)?  Or is there no advantage in timing at all?

Would you like to sponsor four Tory MPs as they cycle 120 miles to Party Conference?

The Tory Culture, Media and Sport team are to cycle the 120 miles from Westminster to the Birmingham Party Conference in a bid to raise funds for this year's social action project, Welsh House Farm.  The project is profiled in this video.

If you would be willing to sponsor Tobias Ellwood, Ed Vaizey, Hugh Robertson and Jeremy Hunt please send a cheque made out to the ‘Lift Community Trust’ to Office of Jeremy Hunt, House of Commons, London SW1A 0AA.  A ConHome cheque for £20 is in the post.

The Scousers are coming

I know well that the phrase "Liverpudlian Conservative" has practically been an oxymoron in recent decades so please indulge me for a moment as I try to explain how that is changing...

Like in other cities the Conservative Associations in the city amalgamated last year, coming under the impartial chairmanship of Mike Howarth. Liverpudlian Nadine Dorries MP wrote this fantastic, typically emotional article about that process, which provoked a lot of debate. Liverpool Conservatives now have a youthful home-grown Chairman in Tony Caldeira - the entrepreneur behind the Caldeira cushion empire, a full-time co-ordinator in Cllr Martyn Barber, and a very committed "Shadow Minister" in Chris Grayling MP who keeps close tabs on things day-to-day.

The association is now out of supported status and its first challenge is to put together a full-slate of local parliamentary candidates. Parachuting candidates in from out of the area like last time doesn't give the impression that the city is being taken seriously. A huge conference centre will be completed on Kings Dock early next year so we could perhaps hold a Spring Forum there in the near future.

As well as developing the party's operation, bridges are being built with members of the community who are outside of party politics. There have been some particularly successful meetings with local businessmen - the picture on the right shows Tony Caldeira and David Cameron with Everton FC's Sir Phillip Carter - and with local charitable projects.

The most underreported speech at conference was given by Dave Sharples, a Christian youth worker in Liverpool who I did some work with in my teens. It was similar to Iain Duncan-Smith's speech in that he spoke so passionately about the moral imperative to be the change in your community that a number of people cried and all gave him a standing ovation. Worth watching:

Paul Oginsky is another Liverpudlian youth worker who spoke on the main stage at conference (and a colleague of my father when he ran a youth centre in Kirkby). He's the man behind Cameron's National Citizenship service idea and you can ask him questions about the scheme today in our Interviews section.

Related link: Join the fledgling Liverpool Conservatives Facebook group

Deputy Editor

Thanks Gordon – you brought the Conservatives together

A few observations on the week that was.

Thanks Gordon – you brought the Conservatives together

If one photo summarises the week it is this image. It was taken by a ConservativeHome reader who was one of the very few real activists to attend a fringe meeting on grammar schools. In different circumstances grassroot members unhappy at Project Cameron would have filled this meeting to voice their anger at the Tory leadership. Graham Brady, hero of the grammarsgate rebels, wasn’t the only Tory who was on best behaviour (see his very good article for The Telegraph). At Tuesday’s meeting there were more journalists present than party members. Faced with electoral oblivion the Tories came together in Blackpool and the brave faces of the start of the week became election bravehearts.

Hardly snap, Mr Brown

My internet dictionary suggests that the adjective ‘snap’ means ‘arrived at quickly and without reflection’ or ‘coming suddenly and without warning’. If an autumn election does still take place it can hardly be described as ‘snap’. Danny Finkelstein joked on Newsnight yesterday that Gordon Brown might as well have ‘phoned the Tory leadership everyday over the last few weeks to check that we had our manifesto ready, candidates in place, and a fighting fund in the bank! The Tory leadership (photographed above at a manifesto meeting yesterday) is now ready if Gordon Brown has the bottle.

The million pound moment

Francis Elliott in The Times has called it the million pound moment – the moment that George Osborne announced that only millionaires would pay inheritance tax under a Conservative government. Reports from battleground seats suggest that the policy has big cut-through and has delighted our new friends at the Mail and Sun.

How did the big beasts perform in Blackpool?

(10) In tenth position in my top ten of the week is Caroline Spelman.  I’ve been going to Party Conference since 1989 and I’ve never known a Party Chairman to have been more anonymous.  Perhaps Mrs Spelman’s behind-the-scenes efforts should be credited for the overall success of the Conference but the leadership wisely had to call on William Hague to deliver the traditional morale-boosting opener to Conference – usually the Party Chairman’s role.

(9) Ninth position goes to David Davis.  Mr Davis failed again to rise to the occasion.  He was probably the only senior Shadow Cabinet minister to underperform this week and was rightly castigated by The Sun for failing to give 100% to David Cameron.  Although the Conference went well it will be crime that may make the difference for the Conservatives in a still-very-possible autumn election.  It’s vital that Mr Davis raises his game.

(8) Boris Johnson delivered a barnstorming speech on Sunday afternoon but I remain concerned that he’s not got much of a vision for London.  Given this week’s successful announcements on tax, Mr Johnson should consider offering Londoners a council tax rebate?

 

(7) Oliver Letwin has come in for a lot of criticism from visitors to this blog and some of it has been deserved.  The party’s head of policy does, however, deserve real credit for the fact that the policy review process is now showing real coherence.  There are common themes emerging and those themes and the thoughtfulness of the IDS, Redwood and Lilley reports, in particular, offer a marked contrast to the shallow partisan nature of Team Brown’s announcements.

(6) Iain Dale's list of the most influential centre right figures correctly included Michael Gove in the top ten.  An early backer of David Cameron, the Shadow Education Secretary is a key member of the party leader’s inner circle and has been a strong advocate of the ‘rebalancing’ of recent times.  He made one of the most important and under-reported announcements of the week.  Fraser Nelson highlights that announcement in his Spectator column this week:

“Any group of teachers would now be able to set up a school, so long as it met certain minimum standards. Such schools would be genuinely independently run. These simple rules offer the prospect of nothing less than a supply side revolution in education.” 

It’s not as doorstep-friendly as the inheritance tax pledge but it was probably the boldest proposal to emerge from Blackpool in terms of long-term potential impact.

Leaving a little legacy every time

This week Blackpool saw the Party-organised renovation of some wasteland on the Grange Park Estate into a community garden.

David Cameron (pictured in the domed greenhouse with PPC Ron Bell and landscape designer Jeff Hewitt on big speech day) took time to visit the project, as did Francis Maude (who got sprayed with water by the kids), Theresa May (in those boots), Tobias Ellwood (who wrote a conference diary for ConservativeHome of the progress of the St Mary's Church project in Bournemouth last year), and a big group of Conservative Future members. Thanks to photographer Anthony Whitehead for the photos.

The whole garden was created in three days, just in time for William Hague to come and declare it officially open yesterday lunchtime. He gave some prizes out to the kids and expertly planted some "Ffion Hague" daffodil bulbs which, like his wife, needed to be "well watered and tucked-up".

Well done to the local Conservatives, and to Nicola Blackwood, Blaine Robin and Jo Hillier from CCHQ, for making it all happen. Do watch this three minute video of an enthusiastic Blaine showing you around the place, there's a nice surprise at the end:

The projects are in a ward of Blackpool North that has been taken for granted for years, but the Conservatives closed the gap to about sixty votes at the last election there so this may help tip the balance. Paul Maynard (pictured), the PPC for that part of Blackpool, also held workshops in the new greenhouse on healthy eating and planting vegetables, and spoke to the local primary school with PPCs Karen Bradley and Andrew Percy about taking action on the environment.

Since the CCF organised a social action project at spring forum last year it's becoming a tradition to do one every time the party has a national event. "Be the change"! I haven't noticed other parties doing anything like this at their conferences yet, but if this kind of social action became the norm both politicians and the public might have a bit more belief in the public-spirited nature of politics.

Deputy Editor

BBC1's Six'o'clock news on the speech (and other reports)

David Cameron's speech was the main story.  A very fair and factual five minutes was dedicated to clips of the speech.  There was then a two/ three minute report on whether electoral offices were ready for an election.  BBC Political Editor Nick Robinson then gave a sixty second summary to camera.  He told BBC1 viewers that, two years ago, the public first took to David Cameron but then fell out of love with him.  Has David Cameron mended the relationship today?  Do they think David Cameron is strong enough to be Prime Minister?  Serious enough?  Sincere enough?  A clutch of polls over the next few days will help us to know the answer to those questions.  If they show real improvement for the Tories, Nick Robinson concluded, the election might be off and the Tories will secretly be pleased with that.

More summary reports throughout the evening...

10.15pm: BBC1's Ten'o'clock news also led with the Cameron speech.  After the five minutes of straight reporting the BBC held a focus group in Dartford.  Cameron came off worst.  People liked his charisma but accused him of being slimy and not ready to govern.  In his closing two-way Nick Robinson said that Gordon Brown had quite a nice choice.  If his polling returns showed a strong position he could go to the country with confidence.  If the returns were unclear he could happily continue as PM.  I don't think we can allow Gordon Brown to get off that lightly and nor should Nick Robinson.  If Brown doesn't go to the country he must be seen to be a diminished figure.  He will have played politics with all of us.  He'll be shown to be much more of a calculating politician than a visionary statesman.  The BBC must hit him hard if he decides to duck.

10.45pm: Michael Howard on Radio 4's The World Tonight.  Ken Clarke went batting for Cameron on Newsnight.  Both did good jobs.

Blog reactions to David Cameron's speech

Guido Fawkes: "Well the audience, as ever, loved Dave. Guido was watching the press pack and some of Cameron's apparatchiks. The press seemed if not bedazzled, not unimpressed. Team Cameron seemed happy, tension that was in their faces at the start of the speech dissolved into satisfied smiles by the end."

Iain Dale: "I leave Blackpool more optimistic about the future than I have been for a long time. Gordon Brown will know the Tory Party is back - and back with a vengeance. Brown has a real dilemma now. If he calls an election he loses, and if he doesn't call an election he loses."

Adam Boulton: "Tories I spoke to genuinely seemed to think that he had advanced their cause. One even said: "I really am looking forward to an election now.  Cameron also hit the spot with three out of four of Sky News' swingvoters in Redditch."

Shane Greer: "The Conservative Party is back and if anyone should be concerned about their future then it's Gordon Brown.  If he calls the election now he will win, but quite possibly with a reduced majority and a reinvigorated David Cameron.  If he doesn't call it he will look incredibly weak, and bring the Labour Party one step closer to leaving office."

Martin Kettle: "Ed Balls, watching from the BBC studio, pronounced it the speech of a party leader not a prime minister. In some ways that is hard to deny - although the same charge can also be made against Brown's recent performances. Nothing that happened today makes an early election less likely - and an early election is not what Cameron really wants. Cameron will not have done himself any harm at all in this speech. But the question, with the stakes now so sharply raised, is whether he has done himself enough good."

The Times' Sam Coates: "Afterwards, Mr Cameron could be heard asking his shadow cabinet if he had done all right as the crowd burst into an ovation at the end, according to the Press Association.  “Was that all right?” his microphone picked up. Shadow ministers could be heard saying “brilliant”, "unbelievable” and “very good”.  He asked his wife, Samantha, the same, adding: “I love you babe”. Moments later, he said: “Ahh, I’m knackered.""

Fraser Nelson reveals that David 'babe'/ 'hottie' Cameron is now travelling home by train in "goat class".  What a man of the people!  Oliver Letwin is in first btw.

David Cameron's big speech - Live blog from 2.30pm

5.30pm: Download a PDF of the full David Cameron text  

Not verbatim...

3.24pm final words:

CALL THAT ELECTION.
WE WILL FIGHT.
BRITAIN WILL WIN.

3.23pm: Massive cheers at call for Gordon Brown to call a General Election. 

3.21pm: The great service that people can give this country is to go out and fight for change.

3.19pm: I am the son of a magistrate and a stockbroker.  The great privilege of my upbringing wasn't wealth, but warmth.  It was my family.  I had a great education and I want others to have that great education, too.

3.18pm: I've talked about Labour - not because they're bad but to understand why they've failed.

3.17pm: National Citizens Service idea will bring nation together.

Speech now an hour long!

3.16pm: We'll heal society in the ways Iain Duncan Smith outlined in his "great" speech yesterday.

3.14pm: Crime is number one social challenge.  We won't follow Labour's approach of announcing things but not of seeing them through.  We'll scrap early release.  We'll reform the police.  We'll scrap targets and performance assessments so that communities get beat-based, zero tolerance policing.

Ten quick observations from day three

(1) One by-product of Gordon Brown's constant politicking is the galvanising effect he has had on the Conservative Party.  Faced with the imminent threat of a General Election the party has come together.  We've also unveiled a whole series of popular policies.  Reports of the Conservative Party's death are exaggerated.

(2) David Davis will be particularly glad that the Conservatives won't be returning to Blackpool any time soon.  Two years ago he stood on the Wintergardens stage and gave a lacklustre speech that did nothing to dampen the feverish enthusiasm for David Cameron's leadership bid.  The Shadow Home Secretary underperformed again yesterday.  As today's Sun concludes: "A Shadow Home Secretary should be able to take a long, loud standing ovation for granted.  Not this one.  Far from bringing them to their feet, Mr Davis almost sent delegates to sleep with a long, limp repetition of old policies."

(3) William Hague never has any trouble delivering a speech that delights the Conference.  After Sunday's attack on Brown the Shadow Foreign Secretary spoke yesterday about his own brief.  He focused on Europe and after reiterating the party's promise to hold a referendum on the draft EU Treaty he also promised to amend the 1972 European Communities Act "so that if any future government agrees any treaty that transfers further competences from Britain to the EU a national referendum before it could be ratified would be required by law."

(4) The attendance at yesterday's international development debate was poor but the quality of the debate was very high.  Ben Rogers spoke movingly about Burma and confirmed his reputation as the party's leading authority on global human rights issues.  Zoya Phan from Burma brought the Conference to its feet (and has written for Platform10).  Andrew Mitchell put forward some sensible and practical ideas in his speech.  Iain Dale defended the Rwanda trip and described his visit as one of the most impactful of his life.  President Kigame paid generous tribute to the party. It's certainly true that Rwanda helped tens more Tory activists embrace international justice issues as core to their politics.

(5) I don't have numbers but, anecdotally, more people appeared to have signed up to the Conservative Christian Fellowship's petition on Zimbabwe than the official Conference petition on an EU Referendum.

(6) Yesterday was ex-leaders' day.  Not only did IDS inspire the Conference (a view shared by Quentin Letts in The Mail and by the Telegraph's leader-writers) but John Major appeared on Radio Five to skewer Brown on his Iraq visit.  Of Major's intervention, Jonathan Freedland writes: "The swift and rare intervention of John Major underlined the gravity of Brown's mistake. But it also suggested a Conservative party that was focused and well-organised, marshalling its resources effectively."

(7) Both The Times' Sam Coates and BBC's Nick Robinson have blogged less this week because of infections they've picked up during the Party Conference season.  Fraser Nelson mentions one or two other downsides of the long Conference season over at The Spectator blog.  I've long suspected that coming last in the Party Conference timetable is unhelpful.  While it's true that the Tories get the last word, it's also true that journalists are fed up and other parties have had the opportunity to set the agenda.

(8) I enjoyed a delicious dinner in the Imperial Hotel last night with Owen Paterson and John Hayes.  There were hardly any other diners.  The Conference hall has often been empty.  Cab drivers tell me that business has been slack.  CCHQ say that pass applications were at a five year high but it doesn't feel like that.  I know of a number of candidates, including Louise Bagshawe and Mel Stride, who have stayed in their constituencies in anticipation of an early campaign.  Perhaps many others have taken the same wise decision.  After dinner btw I went to the Northern Ireland Conservatives reception, hosted by Owen.  Owen's predecessor David Lidington was presented with a beautiful Waterford crystal vase.  David Lidington, one of my favourite people in politics, was hugely popular amongst NI Conservatives - embracing their long-held wish to be brought closer to the heart of the whole party.  Owen has a tough act to follow.         

(9) Theresa's fashion sense and dance routine were featured prominently in yesterday's London Evening Standard and there are lots more photographs of the Shadow Leader of the House in this morning's newspapers.  Some are more positive than The Sun which writes: "When it comes to fashion, she seems to have a habit of putting her foot in it."  Tory Conference wouldn't now be Tory Conference without a 'Theresa May wears X' story.

(10) The age difference in the ConservativeHome team is certainly beginning to tell.  I'm in bed by midnight but Sam doesn't return from the bars until at least 2am.  He then goes for a run at 7am every morning along the beach.  The one thing we share is a cooked breakfast at 9am.  I recommend the Dukeries Hotel on Adelaide Road to anyone wanting a good value, friendly and clean Blackpool hotel.

Ten observations from day one and day two.

Ten quick observations from day two

(1) The mood here is much improved.  Yesterday's tax cut pledges from George Osborne have given Conservatives something very real to fight for on the doorsteps.  Fraser Nelson sort of agrees but concludes: "The Tories are doomed, but very upbeat about it."  An autumn election is going to be very tough but at least the Tory troops now have a lot more ammunition for the fight.  I'm hoping for a lot more from David Davis later.  I still think crime and social breakdown should be at the heart of our election strategy.

(2) The mood will get still better when Tory activists read their newspapers over their bacon and eggs.  Sun, Mail, Express and Telegraph are all very positive about yesterday's tax announcements.

(3) Housing continues to emerge as a key Cameroonian theme.  The abolition of inheritance tax for the middle classes and the abolition of stamp duty for first-time buyers on homes of £250,000 in value have now been followed up by a commitment to abolish HIPS.  Shadow Housing Minister Grant Shapps told conference: "The experts ridiculed them.  The industry doesn't want them.  The market doesn't need them.  The next Conservative Government will scrap them."

(4) Michael Gove promised 'grammar streams' in every school yesterday and a central place for Winston Churchill in the curriculum.  Representatives loved it.

(4) George Osborne yesterday joked that anybody who thought he'd support charges for supermarket parking must have been "off their trolley"!  I'm picking up a little bit of anger amongst some of the greenest blues at Conference at what they are interpreting as a downgrading of their agenda.  Both Zac Goldsmith and John Gummer are here in Blackpool.  I wouldn't be surprised if one green explodes at some point soon.

(5) Which MEP has the most fans in Blackpool?  Answer: Roger Helmer!  Roger and The Freedom Association have been distributing fans with the message 'Keep a cool head on climate change' written on to them.  At a fringe meeting yesterday Iain Murray and Russell Lewis examined the enormous costs of combating climate change.  Murray suggested an alternative strategy of technological investment (he welcomed Richard Branson's encouragement of a more efficient airline fuel), resilience to extreme events and adaptation.

(6) And what of the climate in Blackpool?  The weather has been cool but dry.  Huge numbers of people are spilling out of the stuffy, hot atmosphere of the Imperial Hotel as a result - and on to the large car park for some fresh air or the freedom to smoke. 

(7) Michael Cockerell is filming around the Imperial for one of his big BBC documentaries.  It looks, I understand, at the changes David Cameron has been making to the Conservative Party.  It won't be shown before an autumn election.

(9) Both the BBC and News International are not holding parties at this year's Party Conferences.  Last night's Telegraph party was incredibly well-attended as a result.  The finest drinks were being served at Lord Strathclyde's private party.  Nick Herbert spoke at ConservativeHome's own reception in the Churchill Room.  ConservativeHome is the first website he visits on any day he said.  Pictured (clockwise from top left): Debi Jones, Laura Kuenssberg, Julia Manning, Stephen Crabb MP, Amanda Platell, John Hayward, Iain Murray and Fraser Nelson.

(10) Line of the day award goes to Boris Johnson.  If Mr Broon decides not to call an election he's nothing more than a big girl's blouse!

Also see yesterday's ten observations

Do you have any advice for David Cameron's speechwriters?

There are lots of good policy announcements being made here in Blackpool.  The rebalancing that ConservativeHome has long sought is happening.  There's an almost universal hunger for unity.  I'm impressed with the quality of the candidates that will be our standard-bearers in target seats.

But The Sun is rightly waiting for David Cameron's speech - early on the final afternoon of Conference - to decide whether the Conference has been a success or not: "The Tories have until 2.30 Wednesday afternoon to prove they’ve still got what it takes to be winners."  David Cameron needs to be able to convince a so far unpersuaded electorate that he has the strength and depth of belief that they expect in a Prime Minister.

Two years ago David Cameron gave a speech to the party - also here in Blackpool - that transformed his leadership campaign.  Please use the thread below to provide some constructive advice on what he should say and how he should say it...

Ten quick observations from day one

(1) The Conference did not start well.  There were significant sound problems but the video wall is terrific.  Pictured above is NY Mayor Michael Bloomberg when he addressed the Winter Gardens this afternoon.  The Spectator's James Forsyth interpreted the Bloomberg invite as potentially offensive to our Republican allies across the pond.  I disagree.  It's good to have the mayor of one of the world's greatest cities address our party.

(2) William Hague has a rival as best conference speaker.  Most people I've spoken to in the bars thought Boris Johnson stole the day.  That's certainly Sky's view.

(3) "Rebalancing" is the word that describes this week.  Alongside the modernising emphasis on a gentler, greener conservatism there's lots of talk of lower taxation and a very tough approach to crime.   There's even rebalancing in the wardrobes of the über-modernisers.  Francis Maude was spotted wearing a tie!  Theresa May's boots must win the overall award for surprising wardrobe choice, however.  Click here for a photo.

(4) Accreditation has been much, much better than last year but I did snap this photo earlier and there have been one or two horror stories.

(5) The latest ConservativeHome survey of members pointed to a 3 to 1 preference for loyalty over candour from MPs.  Michael Ancram's decision not to give any interviews has been widely noted.  There is a general hunger for unity here in Blackpool.

(6) I was on a panel earlier this evening with Peter Oborne, Nick Herbert and Jeremy Hunt - discussing David Cameron's relations with the grassroots.  Tune into tomorrow's World at One on Radio 4 for highlights.  The meeting came alive when one activist accused the BBC of systematic bias against the Conservatives.  I almost felt sorry for Martha Kearney - such was the hostility that the audience felt for the BBC.

(7) There's one question everyone is asking: Are you a yes or a no person?  I'm still a yes person and think Gordon Brown will look very diminished if he doesn't now call an autumn election.  I was on the Westminster Hour tonight and learnt that there is now talk of Britain's first Sunday General Election.  There is a rumour that Brown will recall Parliament for a statement on troop draw-downs in Iraq, a vote to authorise an election and enabling legislation for a Sunday poll.

(8) The men's toilets are full of photos of James Purnell photoshopped on to images of great world events.  Silly, yes but quite funny.

(9) Blackpool is not in good shape for the final scheduled visit by any major political party for its annual conference.  I hope the recent switch of political control - to the Conservatives - will do something to restore this once fine seaside resort... but it's going to take a lot of enterprise and time.  Floodlighting the Tower in blue for the week is a nice touch.

(10)  It's 11.45pm and I'm off to bed.  My guess is that 99% of other conference-goers will still be drinking for a few hours yet but my day began at 7am with an interview with BBC Breakfast telly and I need my sleep!

"All passes have been cleared by the police"

I've just attended an off-camera briefing at CCHQ (the Pankhurst Room) about the Party Conference.  Here are the main points:

Accreditation: All passes (except very late applications) have been cleared by the Lancashire Constabulary.  Phew.  More than 8,500 passes have been issued - the best attendance for five years.

Slogan: "It's time for change" is the main Conference message.  The message - Gordon Brown is good at playing political games but has no vision for the country.

Policy reviews: At this Conference many policy group recommendations will be adopted or rejected.  Charges for supermarket parking has already been binned.

Opening day: Highlights on Sunday will be opening speech from William Hague (expect a demolition of Gordon Brown) and Boris Johnson.

Tories are ready for an Election: £10m in warchest.  200 candidates in key seats selected.  Manifesto drafted.  If an election is called next week the broadcasters have assured CCHQ that the Conference will receive full coverage - to balance the coverage already given to Labour and the LibDems.

Lady Thatcher: Won't be attending (and hasn't for a number of years).

Social action: As with last year, there will be a social action project.  Some derelict land will be reclaimed.

Labour's murmuring grassroots

By demoralising the Thatcher-hating core Labour vote Baroness Thatcher's afternoon tea at No.10 may well cause more long-term damage to Brown than to Cameron, although I doubt that that was in her or her advisers' calculations.

Glancing around what there is of a Labour-supporting blogosphere I see that Bloggers4Labour "can't imagine any remotely plausible political strategy" for the "nauseating sight" of them together. Skipper believes Brown was right in saying that Thatcher was a conviction politician, but sees his cosying up to her as yet another example that he is not, and poor GrimmerUpNorth resents being booed at a local Palestinian Solidarity Campaign fund-raiser because of it.

So what will be the mood of the Labour faithful as they gather in Bournemouth a week on Sunday? I'm no expert on the internal machinations of the Labour coalition but I did attend their conference last time it was there (not as a member) so have some idea of the type of people who go. Then, in 2003, they were all muttering darkly about "blood for oil" and I often found myself compelled to defend Blair.

Now they're meeting for the first time under Gordon Brown's premiership but it will hardly be a love-in. It won't simply be the things that he's "done" in the last few months that will have annoyed them - as well as the above he's recently had run-ins with the Prison Officers' Association, Rail Maritime Transport union and, to some extent, the Trades Union Congress - but the things he hasn't done.

What happened to the man the Left looked up to? Many of them Some of them will have held out during the Blair years patiently waiting for the coup d'etat, and now Brown's got the crown and gone all Blair on them. New Labour hacks will accept Brown's political manoevring for what it is, but the ideologues will be wondering when the political capital is actually going to be used for some ideological ends (sound familiar?).

Deputy Editor

The Governator can't make it

Due to diary commitments Arnold Schwarzenegger has pulled out of the keynote speech on the first day of party conference. His spokesman said he could no longer make it to the UK in person so would be giving a shorter video-link speech instead, as Sarkozy did last year.

Seeing as he does head up one of the top ten biggest economies in the world I think we can forgive him, he's also cancelled a trade mission to India. California became the first state in the US to impose a mandatory cap on greenhouse gas emissions under his governorship, and his liberal approach to abortion and guns make him one of the more acceptable Republicans in the eyes of some in the party.

Arnie, who has described Blair as a "real action hero", said that he thought Cameron was an outstanding leader and that he was very disappointed at not being able to attend.

I was hoping to lace at least one catchphrase into this post but CCHQ beat me to it: "he'll be back". In the meantime, which famous person would you pick to make a full speech in his place?

Deputy Editor

Schwarzenegger to address Conservative Party Conference

In another major coup for David Cameron the Governor of California - Arnold Schwarzenegger - has agreed to address this year's Blackpool Conference.  There are a number of things I don't like much about Arnie and his politics but now is not the time to rehearse those.  Here are three things that we can usefully learn from The Governator:

1. Direct democracy.  Schwarzenegger won the recall election against the discredited Democrat Governor Gray Davis.  The power to recall ensures that elected politicians can be booted out of office early if they really mess up.  The recall of the London Mayor - proposed by Andrew Boff - was the first idea on ConservativeHome's 100policies.com.  In this age of disaffection with politicians the Conservative Party should be championing ideas that devolve electoral and other powers to ordinary citizens.
2. Servant leadership.  California's Governor survived last November's anti-Republican mood by showing that he was willing to change course when necessary.  Some right-wing Republicans accused him of being too "politically compliant" and "easy-to-please."  Schwarzenegger embraced the critique: "I’m eager to please the voters because I’m a public servant. I don’t see myself as a politician. I see myself as a public servant. I serve the people of California. I serve Democrats and Republicans, and if someone says that, that I’m eager to please, yes, I am. I’m there to please the people.  That’s what this is all about."  It is, of course, possible to be too eager to please - too much of a weather vane, not enough of a sign post.  But there is something attractive in a politician that attempts to lead but never in a way that is indifferent to the public mood.
3. Inspirational leadership.  One of my favourite political speeches was given by Arnie.  I have it on my iPod.  It was his speech to the 2004 Republican Conference.  It was funny.  Ideological.  Honest.  Read or watch it via this link.  Here's my favourite passage:

"My fellow immigrants, my fellow Americans, how do you know if you are a Republican? Well, I['ll] tell you how.

If you believe that government should be accountable to the people, not the people to the government, then you are a Republican.

If you believe that a person should be treated as an individual, not as a member of an interest group, then you are a Republican.

If you believe that your family knows how to spend your money better than the government does, then you are a Republican.

If you believe -- If you believe that our educational system should be held accountable for the progress of our children, then you are a Republican.

If you believe -- If you believe that this country, not the United Nations, is best hope for democracy, then you are a Republican.

And ladies and gentlemen --  And ladies and gentlemen, if you believe that we must be fierce and relentless and terminate terrorism, then you are a Republican."

Party Conference in Manchester: 2009 and 2011

Francis Maude will announce tomorrow that the Conservative Party Conference will be held in Manchester both in 2009 and 2011.

This follows a trend of moving conferences to larger, more northern destinations. Spring Forum was held in Manchester last year and was generally well-liked by delegates, and we recently revealed that the next Spring Forum will be in Gateshead and the 2008 Party conference in Birmingham.

If this has whetted anybody's appetite for Party conferences, you can spend your Friday evening reading over the sixty-odd articles written by ConservativeHome's Bournemouth 2006 reporters!

Deputy Editor

Francis Maude confirms Birmingham conference

"This afternoon I will be in Birmingham.  I’m the Shadow Minister for Wolverhampton, so I’m in the West Midlands at least once a month.  This time, though, there’s a difference.  This time I’m taking the whole Party with me.  I’m on my way to Birmingham’s International Convention Centre to announce that this is where we’ll hold our Party Conference in 2008 and 2010.

Many of you reading this have probably already heard, but such is life in the blogosphere.  Still, I think people are really enthusiastic about this decision

It’s a decision which really reflects where we’re going as a Party.  Not only have we had a change in direction, but we’ve had a change in attitude.  Together with the creation of Campaign North and the appointment of Michael Bates as Deputy Chairman (North), we’re gradually shifting the perception that we’re a party of the south.

I wanted to do this for some time. One of my first decisions after last election was to take Spring Forum last year to Manchester. Taking our party to the heart of Britain’s great cities is good for the cities and is good for us.

I’m really looking forward to the conferences this year and next.  We’ve got a good organising team in place and a new event management company on board.  I have the feeling that the next couple of years will be among the best we’ve ever had.

Over the last year or so, it’s been interesting to see people’s responses to the changes which we’re making to the Party.  I’m looking forward to seeing what happens in 2007 and reading your views on this decision."

£2m subsidy lures 2008's Tory Conference to Birmingham

Tonight's Birmingham Mail is reporting that a £2m subsidy has almost certainly won the 2008 Conservative Party Conference for Birmingham.  Birmingham City Council - run by a Tory-LibDem coalition - apparently calculate
that the wooing of the Tory conference will generate £25m for the local economy.

Birmingham replaces Bournemouth after Francis Maude's fury at last year's passes scandal.  The party will see the decision as part of its commitment to a region with lots of crucial marginal seats.

Conference-goers will probably pay a premium for the decision.  Accommodation costs in city locations tend to be higher than in seaside resorts.

8.30am update on 31/1: I am reliably informed that the monument pictured above was destroyed by fire a few years ago.  It has not been missed by anyone but a few of the Labour ideologues that erected it when they ran Britain's second city.

Next year's Spring Forum

I don't think this has reached the public sphere yet, so just to let you know that next year's Conservative Party Spring Forum is planned to be held in Gateshead (Southerners may need to consult this map).

It's some way away, but I'd suggest Liverpool as a good venue for a conference in 2009 now that Bournemouth is out of the running and Blackpool remains unpopular with delegates. A riverside 10,000 seater conference centre is due to be completed by the start of 2008, the year the city celebrates being European Capital of Culture, but unfortunately the LibDems have bagged it for their autumn conference.

See here for some more political reasons for going to Liverpool.

This year's Forum is in Nottingham, March 16th-18th.

Deputy Editor (born and bred Scouser)

Maude pulls the plug on Bournemouth after police failures

The Atticus column in The Sunday Times suggests that Party Chairman Francis Maude has vowed not to return to Bournemouth because of the passes fiasco that blighted last October's gathering.  CCHQ is known to hold the Dorset Constabulary responsible for the long delays that ruined Conference week for hundreds of people.  Atticus:

"The decision will be a huge blow to the town, where the party has been gathering for 20-odd years, but Maude has set out a string of complaints in an 11-page letter to the chief constable of Dorset.  He says police took two months to approve David Cameron’s pass — which only just arrived on time — and tells how a cleaner broke in through a window to give Tory staff access to the pass office.  Maude even claims that officers were told not to give directions to Tory delegates. At least that should be easy from now on: excuse me, constable, could you show me the way to Brighton?"

Editor's note: "That snippet about needing to break into the pass office - and being able to do so - is a perfect summary of so much of the jobsworth regulations that characterise the public sector.  David Cameron's pass is bureaucratically delayed but the 'secure location' for all of the passes goes unprotected - so compromising the safety of every passholder.  So much of British life is blighted by incompetence.  It's not just the public sector.  Huge parts of the private sector offer unacceptable levels of customer service with internal departments of large companies blaming other internal departments if they can't find another company in the supply chain to blame for non-delivery.  It is to Francis Maude's credit that he is planning to take the Conservative Party's business away from Bournemouth until the various suppliers there can guarantee that there will be no repeat of October 2006."

Related link: Fingerprint Events wins Party Conferences contract

Fingerprint Events wins Party Conferences contract

The annual Tory conference has been a major drain on the party's finances for a number of years.  The party has been repeatedly advised that, if run in a different way, the spring and autumn conferences could become reasonably healthy profit centres.  It is to the credit of Francis Maude and his team that they have ended the previous arrangement that the party had with CCO Conferences.  CCO Conferences was an independent company that had run the conferences for a number of years but whose contract was terminated after 2006's Bournemouth Conference.  Anyone who ever booked a fringe event or hotel venue through CCO Conferences will know that it often charged hefty fees but the money went to the conference company rather than to party funds as part of the deal it enjoyed with CCHQ.

Last week the party announced that Fingerprint Events had been given the contract to run the conferences from now on.  It's a flat fee-based arrangement where all surpluses accrue to the party.  The press release has been removed from conservatives.com but the text is here as a pdf.  ConservativeHome immediately emailed CCHQ to establish the exact nature of the "discussions" held with a "number of events agencies" and whether those discussions matched the tendering standards that Tory governments imposed on local authorities in the 1980s and 1990s.  This is CCHQ's reply:

"The tendering of the contract to manage Spring Forum and Annual Party Conferences has been handled by a procurement company which advertised the contract in the events industry magazine 'Event' during September.  The tendering process involved face to face interviews with a number of companies, and after discussions to see which model met the Party’s conference needs best, Fingerprint Events Ltd were awarded the contract by the Party Board.  Commercial Confidentiality Agreements signed with all companies restrict us from releasing further details other than contained in the original press release. Fingerprint Events were judged to have the most suitable model especially in terms of CCHQ control and the financial return to the Party."

Unfortunately this response adds little to the original press release and leads me to believe that the tendering process did fall short of the competitive tendering standards that Tory governments expected of local authorities.  Those processes were introduced in order to ensure that insiders did not unfairly win contracts from local authorities and that local taxpayers and the Treasury received value for money.  It would have been better if Fingerprint Events - which appears to be run by people with a long-standing connection to the party - had won the contract after a more formal and less secretive process.  There has been a long history of well-connected individuals winning big contracts from the Conservative Party.  Fingerprint Events was only registered as a company on 6th November 2006 and it is unclear who its real owners and directors might be.

In conclusion: The party's contract with Fingerprint Events is undoubtedly an improvement on the previous arrangement but has the party's possible return been maximised?  I fear not.  The conference attendees who suffered from last year's security nightmares might be content with any new arrangement, however, as long as they can get into the conference hall!

How did the shadow cabinet perform in Bournemouth?

Earlier this week we published the latest results from the ConservativeHome Members' Panel.  Findings included news that only 6% of Tory members think that the A-list includes the most talented candidates in the Conservative party.  Here are the Panel's September rankings of the shadow cabinet's top ten portfolio holders and my assessment of how each performed in Bournemouth...

David Davis (latest net rating +72, down 9 on July but only down 2 on January). The Shadow Home Secretary has impressed over the last year because of his public loyalty to the man who defeated him for the Tory crown.  For the fourth month in a row he remains the shadow cabinet minister with the highest satisfaction rating amongst grassroots Tories.  This week in Bournemouth Mr Davis delivered a workmanlike speech but his message on prisons will have most helped the Tory leader with the right of the party.

Liam Fox (+44, up 3 on July but down 11 on January).  Liam Fox's main platform speech was a little long but, by all accounts, he wowed a fringe event held by Conservative Friends of Israel with a passionate defence of Israel's right to defend itself from hostile neighbours.  He also gave one of the most substantial addresses of the Conference fringe.  As reported here by Simon Chapman, the Shadow Defence Secretary analysed how the money we are spending on importing energy from nations like Iran and Russia is being used to arm our enemies.

William Hague (+56, up 1 on July but down 27 on January).  The former Tory leader is still the best platform speaker in British politics and he did not fail to entertain his Bournemouth audience this week.  The Tory faithful did not seem to mind that there was little substance to Mr Hague's remarks.  They loved Mr Hague's humour and confidence and I expect the post-EPP-row dip in his approval ratings will be quickly reversed.   

Andrew Lansley (+28, up 9 on July but down 12 on January).  A very trim looking Mr Lansley enjoyed a good week.  The NHS (alongside a commitment to marriage) was the central theme of David Cameron's speech and that centrality was illustrated by the fact that the Shadow Health Secretary sat between Messrs Hague and Osborne during that speech.  Expect Mr Lansley to get more and more profile over the coming months and read Andrea Leadsom's interview with him here.

Oliver Letwin (+10, down 1 on July and down 26 on January).  Mr Letwin did not have a good start to the week with his dispute with The Sunday Times about reported remarks on 'no limits' to private sector involvement in the NHS.  I twice debated with Oliver on the fringe.  He is the most Cameroonian of the Cameroonians with a heartfelt commitment to the new agenda but a disappointing lack of confidence in the importance of our party's more recent policy positions on Europe, tax, immigration and crime.

Francis Maude (+2, down 3 on July and down 26 on January).  Many blame Francis Maude for the accreditation chaos.  I'm not sure that that's fair.  The Dorset police and CCO Conferences (a separate company whose contract is about to expire) probably share the real blame and I hope Francis will put some independent grassroots activists in charge of an enquiry into the accreditation problems.  Overall Francis and his CCHQ ran a successful conference.  Particularly worthy of highlight is head of presentation and events Nick Pisani.   Mr Pisani, formerly of BBC1's Question Time, orchestrated the look and feel of the conference, its interactive elements and the fact that the platform speeches from shadow cabinet ministers were generally shorter and punchier.

Theresa May (+3, down 1 on July and down 26 on January). Theresa wrote a blog for ConservativeHome during this week and chaired the 'challenge the candidate' sessions on the main stage.   She became a fan of activists last year when she became a fierce defender of the members' right to a vote in the leadership election but that status has faded as a result of her being an architect of the quota-based A-list.

George Osborne (+34, up 1 on July but down 34 on January). George Osborne had the best of the week because of his accomplished speech of Tuesday.  He was fully in command of his brief and will have reassured some Tories who worry that he appears a little too 'school-boyish' to be put in charge of the nation's finances.  His speech also appeared to give a little more hope to those Conservatives who want to see tax cuts in the next Tory manifesto.  It is vital that the party leaves itself room to be able to offer lower taxation.  Today's Telegraph front page and the agony caused by Gordon Brown's stamp duty will be one of an increasing number of taxes-are-too-high stories.  Just because tax was not decisive at the last three elections does not mean it won't matter at the next. 

Caroline Spelman (+16, down 5 on July and down 22 on January) and David Willetts (+33, up 9 on July but down 28 on January) both had quiet weeks.