ConservativeHome's ToryDiary

Eric Pickles for Party Chairman

A new YouGov poll for The Sunday Times gives the Conservatives a whopping 22% lead.  The temptation for David Cameron will be to take no major risks with policy and personnel.  The likeliest personnel change is, however, a change of Party Chairman.

The Mail on Sunday is reporting anger amongst unnamed female MPs at a "whispering campaign" against Mrs Spelman.  Mrs Spelman's defenders attack private briefings in which her axeing is said to be "certain".  In the current environment where voter tolerance of political sleaze is at breaking point, even the slightest criticism of Mrs Spelman in the forthcoming report into the employment of her nanny will result in her resignation.  A ConservativeHome poll of 1,470 party members carried out on 30th June to 5th July shows overwhelming support for Eric Pickles to replace her by the time of the Party Conference:

The Mail on Sunday quotes a defender of Mrs Spelman as saying that appointing Eric to the top job at CCHQ would be "a major setback to Mr Cameron’s attempt to change the party’s ‘white male’ image."  But, it could equally be argued, that Mr Pickles does much more to tackle perceptions that the Tories are too southern and too elitist.   Promotions for Maria Miller and Justine Greening - who has performed a first class task on VED - would also show that Mr Cameron remains committed to promoting female talent.

Mr Pickles has come under fire from some CCHQ insiders for being too willing to take the glory for the victory in Crewe and Nantwich but the overwhelming view of colleagues and staffers is admiration.  Not an easy man to categorise politically, Mr Pickles is not 'of the right' in the way that David Davis is but his appointment would restore some of the balance that was lost when Mr Davis left David Cameron's top team.  Mr Pickles would be a superb, campaigning Party Chairman for the Conservatives in a run-up to the General Election.  We hope he gets the nod.

SNP overtake Labour, but only a third of Scots want independence

Less than two weeks before the Glasgow East by-election, the SNP are polling ahead of Labour on voting intentions for Westminster elections for the first time. A YouGov poll for the Telegraph puts them at 33% to Labour's 29% in Scotland, with the Conservatives on 20%. Anthony Wells calculates that:

"These figures - if repeated at an actual general election - would represent a massive switch in support. On a uniform swing it would produce 31 seats for Labour (down 10), 14 seats for the SNP (up 8), 10 for the Lib Dems (down 1) and 4 for the Conservatives."

The poll also shows however that 48% to 36% of Scots are against independence.

3pm: Statement from Annabel Goldie:

“This poll confirms two trends which are increasingly evident in Scotland – firstly, that the Liberal Democrats have become an irrelevance. Scottish politics is now a three horse race, and whilst we are still currently the third horse, Scottish Conservatives are closing the gap on Labour. Secondly, and Alex Salmond should look away now, this is yet more decisive confirmation that Scots do not want independence, in any shape, way or form. No matter how the question is put, the separatists never win the vote. Hardworking Scots, in Glasgow East and throughout the country, want to focus on the issues and problems of today, not imagine tomorrow’s nightmares posed by risky constitutional upheaval.”

Tories 13% ahead in Populus/ Times poll

Below the headline numbers, Conservative strategists will be most encouraged that  the party now has a 39% to 26% lead on who is most trusted to run the economy.

The Times chooses to lead its report of the poll by highlighting the Populus finding that most Labour voters have decided that Brown is a "loser".  Cruel.

21% ahead with ComRes

Another poll! A ComRes poll for the Independent has the Conservatives 21% ahead, the highest rating and biggest lead for any party since ComRes began polling for the paper in 2006.

Conservatives: 46% (+2)
Labour: 25% (-5)
LibDems: 18% (+2)

Brown may be dragging his party's support down as more of those polled actually said that they regarded themselves as supporting Labour (27%) than Conservative (26%). 13% of those Labour "identifiers" intend to vote Tory, as do 14% of LibDem identifiers. Only 4% of LibDem identifiers say they will vote Labour, while 7% of Labour identifiers intend to back the LibDems.

Encouragingly, 74% of Tory supporters are absolutely certain to vote, compared to 58% of Labour supporters and 50% of LibDems. We're ahead of Labour amongst every age and social group and in every region except Scotland.

Fastest ever fall in personal ratings for a PM

This month's Ipsos MORI's poll, conducted two weeks ago, has more bad data for Brown to add to that of other recent polls:

• Brown's first year in office has seen the fastest fall in personal ratings for a Prime Minister ever recorded. His ratings are currently as low as John Major's were after Black Wednesday, in the years before Labour's 1997 victory under Tony Blair.
• Brown's first year also sees the deepest economic gloom Ipsos MORI has recorded since 1980: seven in ten people (69%) now believe that the general economic condition of the country will get worse over the next 12 months.
• Almost three quarters (73%) of the public are now dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country, and just one in five (21%) are satisfied.
• Seven in ten (70%) are dissatisfied with the way Gordon Brown is doing his job as Prime Minister. Among Labour supporters, equal numbers are satisfied and dissatisfied with Mr Brown (45%)
• Half the population (50%) is satisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party, and three in ten (30%) dissatisfied, while one in five (21%) don't know. 82% of Conservative supporters are satisfied with Mr Cameron, and just 9% are dissatisfied (and 35% of Labour supporters are satisfied with Mr Cameron, compared to just 9% of Conservative supporters satisfied with Mr Brown)
• A third (33%) are satisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats, and a quarter (24%) are dissatisfied. Almost two-thirds (63%) of Liberal Democrat supporters are satisfied with Mr Clegg, and 14% are dissatisfied
• Seven in ten people (69%) now believe that the general economic condition of the country will get worse over the next 12 months; this is the lowest score Ipsos MORI has recorded since March 1980.

6pm: Graphic added (although UK Polling Report is cautious about comparing with previous MORI polls because of  methodology changes).

YouGov: Tories 18% ahead

Labour have narrowed the gap to 18% according to a new YouGov survey for The Telegraph.

Taken one year on from Brown's premiership it also has these findings:

• Who do you think will win the next election? Lab 62% Con 18% a year ago. Now Lab 16%, Con 67%.
• Asset or liability to the Labour Party? 48% asset, 25% liability a year ago. Now 21% asset, 61% liability.
• 49% say Brown is doing a worse job than Blair. Only 8%   say he is a better Prime Minister and two thirds say their opinion of  Brown as PM has gone   down over the last year.
• 71% say Government doesn't have a clear sense of direction.

ICM give Conservatives record 20% lead

Tomorrow's Guardian has an ICM poll putting the Conservatives on a record 45%, followed by Labour on 25%, and the LibDems just 5% behind on 20%.

If replicated at a general election these figures point to a victory on the scale of Labour's in 1997. 74% of those questioned say Brown has been a change for the worse compared with Blair, just 4% gave him top marks and only 24% think Labour has a chance of winning the next election with him as leader.

10am, 25 June, Graphic added:

85% of voters say Brown has performed worse than they expected

The Mail on Sunday has a BPIX poll (click to enlarge graphic) that puts Conservatives 23% ahead: Con 49%, Lab 26%, LD 14%.

In the BPIX poll last September Brown was preferred to Cameron as a dinner-party guest, babysitter, defender in a street fight, pub quiz team member and upholder of British values. Now Cameron is ahead in all these areas, in most cases by a margin of two to one.

Asked to say if they associated Brown and Cameron with a long list of positive characteristics, Cameron won in every single category: ‘change’ (10% for Brown), ‘strong’, ‘honest’, ‘attractive’ (1% for Brown), ‘caring’ ‘optimistic’, ‘competent’, ‘patriotic’, ‘charismatic’ (3% fo Brown), ‘intelligent’, ‘judgment’, ‘realistic’, ‘dignified’ and ‘modern’.

Other key findings:

• 85% say Brown has performed worse than they expected, 55% say Cameron has performed better than expected.
• 44% say Brown should resign now
• More than four in ten say he would be the last to pay back a £20 loan compared with just one in three last year, and Labour is still regarded as more sleazy.
• Cameron is more like Tony Blair and Margaret Thatcher, Brown more like John Major
• 53% say that, in hindsight, they wish Brown had not ousted Blair.
• Labour has no obvious replacement for poor Brown: David Miliband comes top of the list of successors with just 14%, followed by Jack Straw.

The most important fact in British politics

If you want to know why the Tories are an average 17% ahead in ConservativeHome's Poll of Polls we suggest it is, quite simply, the reduction in peoples' earnings.  Rising incomes protected Tony Blair from his failures on crime, immigration and the public services but they are no longer protecting Gordon Brown.

Research by the Centre for Economics and Business Research for ASDA - quoted in The Telegraph - shows that the average family is £400 worse off this year.  Increased incomes have been wiped out by rising taxes and rising prices.  A big hat-tip to Tory candidate for Dover, Charlie Elphicke.  His research for the Centre for Policy Studies has been way ahead of the curve on this issue.

It's been nearly a year since Gordon Brown became Prime Minister and CCHQ has produced a devastating dossier on his failings.  Chapters attack him for basic failures, incompetence, dithering, opportunism, hypocrisy and "Brownies".  Section 2.4 of the dossier even takes up Guido's theme of 'Jonah Brown'.

You can upload a PDF of the report to read for yourself but here are two highlights of an incredibly thorough piece of work that will feed journalists for months to come:

1. The events that have produced the decline and decline of Mr Brown

Click to enlarge.


2. Images from Brown's year

Clockwise from top left: Asleep at the UN, With orange make-up all over his face, Tangled in a net, Receiving the Olympic torch in Downing Street, Launching his leadership bid obscured by an autocue.

YouGov finds voters suspicious of David Davis' motives

"The Conservative Shadow Home Secretary, David Davis, has resigned as an MP in order to fight a by-election in his constituency on the issue of 42 days. Which of these statements comes closer to your view?

He is doing it mainly as a genuine act of principle in order to defend civil liberties: 29%

He is doing it mainly as a cynical ploy to help the Conservative Party and his own career: 41%

Don’t know: 30%"

The poll finds that the overall Tory lead is 22%, 47% to 25%.  More in this PDF.

ComRes claims Tory lead slipped after David Davis' resignation was announced

The 18% lead is the good news.  The less good news headlined by ComRes in their press release is that the Tories were winning 48% before news of David Davis' resignation was announced (40% of those polled) but just 41% afterwards (60% of those polled).  Only one poll, of course, and only involving 1,012 people in total but, on the face of it, a notable difference.

The Sunday Telegraph also promises to be difficult reading for admirers of David Davis.  Patrick Hennessey, the newspaper's political editor, has blogged this: "The true depth of the anger felt by senior Tories at the decision by David Davis to resign his parliamentary seat and fight a by-election is revealed publicly for the first time in The Sunday Telegraph tomorrow when a leading Conservative breaks cover and directly criticises the former shadow home secretary."

7.30pm: John Rentoul has more.

Most Britons still want a referendum on Lisbon... but only 40% would definitely vote "no"

ConservativeHome has had an exclusive preview of a ComRes poll for today's Daily Politics programme.  From noon today Andrew Neil & Co will be in Ireland for a special Europe-focused edition of the programme.  Polls show that the Irish referendum on the Lisbon Treaty could go either way.  "No" campaigners believe that the recent stories about MEP sleaze that have played heavily in Ireland's media could  help them win.  They are also using posters of Peter Mandelson to make the case for rejecting Lisbon!

The ComRes survey of 1,010 UK voters finds that 64% of UK voters believe that the UK should hold a referendum and 26% think Parliament should decide.

33% say that they would vote to accept the Treaty if given the opportunity.  40% say that they would reject it.   27% don't know.

Interestingly twice as many women 'don't know' as men; 36% to 18%.

45% of 18 to 24 year olds would vote for Lisbon, compared to just 30% of those 65 years or over.

People in Wales & the South West (50%) are most likely to reject Lisbon.

Related video: Stuart Wheeler explains why he is going to the Courts to force Labour to honour its manifesto promise on a EU referendum

Noon: Stuart Wheeler has written for Coffee House about his campaign.

Populus put Conservatives 20% ahead

The Times has just released its Populus poll, which was conducted over the weekend:

• Conservatives 45%
• Labour 25%
• LibDems 20%

Peter Riddell commented:

"Public support for Labour and Gordon Brown continues to plunge to new lows with the Prime Minister's leadership rating falling to a level even below that suffered by Iain Duncan Smith according to a new poll for The Times.

Labour’s rating has dropped by 4 points since early May to 25 per cent, with the Conservatives up 5 points to 45 per cent. This is by far the worst Labour position since 1997 and the best Tory one. The Liberal Democrats are up one point at 20 per cent, according to the Populus poll."

10.15pm: The graphic!

ICM gives Labour lowest ever percentage support

An ICM survey for tomorrow's Sunday Telegraph gives the Conservatives a 16% lead, 42% to 26%.  The previous ICM poll had the main parties on 41% and 27%.  The LibDems are on 21%.

By 65% to 30% voters back the plan for 42 days of pre-charge detention.  But that's where the good news for Labour ends.  The Tories have a 32% to 28% lead on 'most trusted' to tackle terrorism.

8th June, 8am: The Sunday Telegraph's report on this poll can be found here and includes this graph:

Bad news for Liberal Democrats in latest ComRes survey

Not only have the Liberal Democrats fallen back in the latest ComRes survey for The Independent but Nick Clegg has a lower approval rating than Ming Campbell when he was ousted as the party leader six months ago.

ComRes finds that "The Tories are ahead among every age group and social class. Labour, which has seen its traditional working-class supporters desert it following the abolition of the 10p rate of income tax, trails the Tories by 38 per cent to 35 per cent among the lowest DE social group and by 43 per cent to 30 per cent among C2 skilled manual workers.  Mr Cameron's party is ahead of Labour in every region of Britain except Scotland and enjoys a 10-point lead in Labour's former stronghold in the north of England."

> Over at Seats and candidates, Bromley councillor Neil Reddin explains why the LibDems can't take much comfort from the Bromley and Chislehurst by-election in their battling to do well in Henley.

Harriet, Jack, David and Alan are here to see you, Prime Minister

The headline numbers point to a 24% Conservative lead.  But the most interesting finding in the post post-Crewe poll - by YouGov for The Telegraph - is that voters have reached a clear conclusion that Brown is a massive liability to Labour.

Although a slim majority - 52% - don't think a change of Labour leader will make much difference, 32% think Labour's chances will improve and just 8% think things will get worse.  Only 15% are satisfied with Brown's performance and 75% are dissatisfied.

There is much talk of the difficulty of getting rid of Brown.  These sorts of polling numbers suggest to Labour MPs that Mr Brown's position is close to impossible.  Could he really stay in post if Harriet Harman, Jack Straw, David Miliband and Alan Johnson call a meeting and tell him to quit?  John Howard faced down such a delegation a year or so ago when the Australian Liberal Party was facing defeat under his leadership.  He survived as Liberal leader but Labor's Kevin Rudd became PM in a massive win.

PS Who are the 2% of voters who told YouGov that taxes are too low?

Tories are 14.2% ahead in ConservativeHome's Poll of Polls

An ICM survey for tomorrow's Guardian puts the Conservatives 14% ahead.  Nick Clegg will be pleased at his party's 22% rating.

Here are the Tory leads from the other main pollsters:

• ComRes +17%, 18 May
• YouGov +20%, 17 May
• Populus +11%, 6 May
• Ipsos-MORI +9%, 25 April.

Triple whammy poll blow for Brown

Last night we noted a YouGov survey for The Sunday Times giving the Conservatives a 20% national opinion poll lead.

Over on the Seats and candidates page we blog an ICM poll that puts the Tories 8% ahead in Crewe and Nantwich.  It also shows that voters are unpersuaded by the 10p tax u-turn.

A third poll - for The Independent on Sunday - confirms Brown's bleak position.  The Tories are 17% ahead across Britain - with Labour flat on 26%.

57% told ComRes that Labour must change its leader to have any chance of winning the next election.

There's also a 'work-to-do' message for David Cameron.  46% think the Tory leader has what it takes to be a good Prime Minister.  42% disagree.

Conservatives 20% ahead

Not quite 26% but a YouGov survey for The Sunday Times has the Conservatives on 45%, Labour on 25% and the LibDems on 18%.

Voters have given a thumbs down to the £2.7bn U-turn: "Just 23% think the £2.7 billion giveaway was the product of a government strong enough to admit its errors. While 36% say the tax move was sensible and necessary, 47% say it was a cynical ploy ahead of the by-election."

8.50pm: ICM/ News of the World poll on Crewe voting intentions now online.  (Tories lead by 8%).

Forget climate change, voters want more loose change

The economy has overtaken immigration as voters' top concern.

Tax has overtaken law and order.

Inflation has overtaken the environment.

The findings come from the new opinion tracker of 5,000 voters hosted by PoliticsHome.com and powered by YouGov.

Anthony Wells writes:

"As the economy heads for trouble, there has been a remarkable shift in the public priorities. Issues like the environment have moved down the agenda and people have started worrying about tax and inflation. Less regular trackers from other companies have shown immigration as the big issues for a couple of years now - so to see it knocked off the top spot indicates a major change in public opinion."

More here.  The Tory leadership has recognised the change of mood.  Talk of green taxes hasn't just been dumped; Conservatives are now campaigning against at least one of Labour's planned taxes.

Abraham Maslow predicted all of this in 1943.

Boris more popular than Dave

PoliticsHome.com has just launched its daily opinion tracker of 5,000 UK voters.  The tracker provided the main splash in this weekend's Observer.

Its latest finding is that more voters are impressed with Boris Johnson than David Cameron.  The advantage is small.  3% more voters have a positive impression of Boris than have a negative impression.  David Cameron's advantage is +1%.  The graph on the right summarises the men's changing ratings: Cameron's rating is the blue line, Boris' line is green.  As well as this being a honeymoon period for London's new Mayor, it's also true that voters probably judge the two men according to different standards.

Boris confirmed yesterday that he would be scrapping Ken Livingstone's Londoner - a taxpayer-funded propaganda sheet that has rightly annoyed Conservatives for many years.  Not publishing it will save £2.9m.  £1m of the savings will be used to plant 10,000 'street trees' - particularly in London's least green, poorer communities.  Boris commented:

“There was little commitment of resources from Ken Livingstone to reverse the trend of decline in the number of street trees. I am taking immediate action to reverse this short-sighted decision.  In the last few years a third of boroughs have seen a decline in the number of street trees. Many London streets, particularly in deprived areas, have no street trees at all.  I believe that as many areas as possible should enjoy the many advantages that street trees bring. So today I have taken the decision to cut unnecessary funding of the Mayor’s personal publicity budget to plant 10,000 street trees by the end of my first term.  Trees improve the street environment in which Londoners live and work so I will do all I can to save the trees we have and campaign for more trees to protect London’s open spaces.”

City Hall has also announced that Kulveer Ranger will be Boris Johnson's transport adviser.  The Tory A-lister was, according to a press statement, "the lead delivery manager of the Oystercard for London in 2003 and led commercial negotiations on behalf of the Secretary of State supporting the King’s Cross redevelopment."

11.45am: Interesting post from the essential Phil Taylor on the trees policy. The Tory Ealing councillor asks if Boris is "subsidising feckless Labour boroughs that refuse to spend out on street trees whilst careful boroughs that provide street trees will not benefit?"

Tories 26% ahead

YouGov for The Sun
Conservatives 49%
Labour 23%
Liberal Democrats 17%

7.55pm: See The Sun: "LABOUR has slumped to its lowest point since records began in the 1930s, a devastating Sun poll reveals tonight. And the Tories are enjoying their second biggest poll lead in history... Our poll shows that Labour would be in deeper trouble even if they were led by Tony Blair.  And it confirms potential successors Ed Balls, David Miliband, Jack Straw, Harriet Harman, Andy Burnham, Alan Johnson and James Purnell would ALL make things even worse in voters’ eyes."

8.07pm, The graphic:

8.14pm: For those who need extra reassurance that this poll is for real...!

10.10pm:

55% of LABOUR voters want Brown to resign

That's the extraordinary finding of a Populus poll for The Times that has just appeared on its website.

The poll puts the Conservatives on 40%, 11% ahead of Labour on 29%.  The LibDems are on 19%.

Cameron and Osborne (40%) also have a healthy lead over Brown and Darling (30%) when it comes to those most trusted to run the economy.

But back to the headline finding of the poll... Will Brown go?  Writing on Coffee House yesterday, Fraser Nelson thinks 'no', for two reasons:

1. Brown won't quit: "Remember, the guy is detached from reality – living in a world of spreadsheets and statistics. He’ll see this as short-term, a storm to ride out, adversity with which to demonstrate one’s strength. He’s plotted all his adult life for this job so he won’t wake up one morning and say “actually, you’re right. I’m crap. Bye-ee.”"
2. The hurdles for removing him are very high: "The Tories are free-marketeers – they have a mechanism to get rid of their leader on a wet weekend. Labour are central planners, so adopt protectionist policies. The same applies to their leader. You need 71 MPs, signed up in a specific window before the next party conference, and a winning candidate who has the backing of the unions. It’s a huge burden. The mechanism that Blair used to defend himself from Brown is being used by Brown to defend himself from his party (and the public)."

Mixed news from Scotland

Before we get our live blogging underway later today let's have a quick look at one important part of the UK where there are no elections: Scotland.  The latest YouGov survey of voting intentions has mixed news for our party:

• In terms of General Election voting intentions the party remains subdued.  The Cameron effect may be spreading throughout the north of England but we're stuck on 17%.  The more difficult news for Labour is that its own support is down 6% on its 2005 support.  Scotland may have a Scottish Prime Minister but they are warming to the SNP.  The SNP got 18% in 2005 but are winning 30% now.
• Annabel Goldie, leader of the Tory MSPs, is impressing Scottish voters, however.  Just 21% thought Labour's Scottish leader Wendy Alexander was doing a good job.  Ms Goldie's positive rating was 41%.
• The best news of all appears to be declining support for independence.  According to The Telegraph: "Only 19 per cent of Scots would support independence in a three-option referendum. Nearly three quarters backed keeping a devolved Parliament, either with its present powers or with more responsibilities."

Meanwhile David Mundell, Shadow Scottish Secretary, is in hot water.  An article has appeared in the Scottish edition of The Telegraph (not online) suggesting that Mr Mundell has been trying to lobby for George Kynoch in the election of the Scottish Party's Vice Chairman - the most senior position representing activists.  Mr Mundell, it is said, wants the incumbent Bill Walker ousted.  Mr Walker has been a sometime critic of Project Cameron and the central party may prefer Mr Kynoch, a former Scottish Office Minister.  David Mundell has denied intefering in a contest that Annabel Goldie has said should be for grassroots members to determine.

ComRes: Tory lead doubles to 14%

That's what Andrew Grice has blogged.  No other information yet.

Last month's ComRes survey for The Independent had Conservatives on 38%, Labour 31% and LibDems 17%.

7am, 29/4: From The Independent: