ConservativeHome's ToryDiary

The majority of the public now expect a Conservative election victory

There is a Populus poll in The Times tomorrow which does not appear to cover voting intention, but rather asks the public what they expect they outcome of the next election to be.

The results are:

Conservative overall majority - 55%
Hung Parliament with Conservatives as largest single party - 12%
TOTAL EXPECTING CONSERVATIVES AS LARGEST PARTY - 67%

Labour overall majority - 18%
Hung Parliament with Labour as largest single party - 7%
TOTAL EXPECTING LABOUR AS LARGEST PARTY - 25%

Personally I am astonished that nearly one fifth of people still expect Labour to get a majority, given that it will require the party to lose only 24 seats on a swing of a mere 1.6% in order to fall into Hung Parliament territory.

More details here.

Jonathan Isaby

Voters like the idea of more LibDem-Tory co-operation

A poll of 873 adults by PoliticsHome finds strong support for more co-operation between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.

Conservative strategists are delighted at the politics of Wednesday's vote on Gurkhas.  They believe it sent out two key messages: (1) Brown is isolated and (2) the Conservatives are the reasonable party, prepared to work with others.

ConHome reported in February that the Conservatives are considering "generous outreach" to the Liberal Democrats in the event of an election victory:

"A group of shadow ministers believe that one of Tony Blair's bigger strategic mistakes was to row back on co-operation with the Liberal Democrats when he won such a large Commons majority in 1997.  These shadow ministers believe that - contrary to Labour's 'under-delivery' to the LibDems - the Conservatives should deliver more in practical co-operation in government than they promise in opposition."

At his monthly press conference yesterday Mr Cameron admitted that he didn't know Nick Clegg well but restated his December 2005 identity as a "liberal conservative" and he said that the Conservatives will work with the Liberal Democrats on issues of common interest, such as the environment, strengthening local govenment and opposing the surveillance state.

Tim Montgomerie

> On Seats and candidates today Leah Fraser explains how she is love-bombing Liberal Democrat voters in Wallasey.

A Tory majority of 170!

No comment :-)

New YouGov poll shows Tory lead steady at 18%

A new YouGov poll for tomorrow's People newspaper shows the Tory lead remaining at 18%, in line with the most recent YouGov/Daily Telegraph poll from earlier this week:

Tories soar to 45% and 18% lead in first post-Budget poll

69% of voters say they are dissatisfied with Gordon Brown and yet we may have up to 14 more months of him.

More in The Telegraph.

PoliticsHome predicts return of 20% plus Tory leads

Populus have a poll for The Times that finds lots of voter satisfaction with Alistair Darling's Budget.  The small sample (518) backs the 50p tax rate by a large majority and also supports the new allowance for savers, the scrappage scheme for old cars and the increase in alcohol duty.

It would be right to be cautious about the political implications of the poll, however.  Not only is it a small sample it also reminds me of Populus' post-2008 Budget poll.  That suggested positive voter reaction to individual Budget measures and failed to predict the very big boost to Tory fortunes that two conventional voter intention polls found within days.

PoliticsHome are tonight predicting that we'll soon return to Tory leads of 20% and more.  Bold stuff.  I certainly expect the Budget to have enhanced still further the Tories' electoral position.

Tim Montgomerie

New Ipsos Mori poll puts Tory lead at 13%

A new poll from Ipsos Mori has just been released, putting the parties on the following standings:

Comparisons are with last month's equivalent poll.

The seemingly sudden surge in Lib Dem support is remarkable. Does it perhaps suggest that they have gained by keeping out of the claim and counter claims over "Smeargate"? Or is it a rogue poll?

Jonathan Isaby

ICM suggests Tories are losing a little support

After the weekend polls showing Labour support down an ICM survey for The Guardian will disappoint CCHQ.  The Tory lead is down to 10%.  It was 13% at the end of March.

7am on Tuesday 21st April

Whereas the headline voting intention figure appears to suggest a drop in Conservative support, there is better news on the question about which party is most trusted to handle the economy, as The Guardian reports:

"But underlying trends are worrying for Labour. In particular, the government is losing trust on the economy, while the Conservatives are winning it. Asked whether they trust the Tory team of David Cameron and George Osborne, or Labour's Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling, to run the economy, 45% pick the Tories and 35% Labour.

"When ICM last asked the question, in January this year, the Tory lead was just two points, 37-35. In January 2008, Labour led by seven points, 39-32. That means the opposition is now polling ahead of its overall party vote score on economic competence. In the past this issue has been seen as Tory weakness."

BPIX gives Tories 19% lead

BPIX is related to YouGov so the changes are compared to the most recent YouGov poll.

Less than an hour ago I reported a Sunday Telegraph survey with the Tories 17% ahead.

8.30am on Sunday 19th April

We now have more details of the BPIX poll:

• David Cameron wipes the floor with Gordon Brown on all but one measures of personal qualities.  Voters think he is stronger, more likeable, more honest, more trustworthy and more competent than the Prime Minister.  Brown is also seen as more out of touch, twice as sleazy and more interested in himself.  The only fly in the ointment for David Cameron is that by 30% to 29% voters survey by the Mail on Sunday/ BPIX see the Tory leader as more shallow than Brown.
• The Liberal Democrats are at 17%.
• 33% of voters think that Labour is MORE sleazy than the John Major Tories, 23% LESS sleazy. 32% say there is no difference.
• 25% say Brown's Downing Street operation is dirtier than Blair's.  Only 6% say it is not.
• 44% say Brown is a worse PM than Blair.  Just 10% say he is better.

More in the Mail on Sunday.

Tim Montgomerie

Sunday Telegraph poll has Tories 17% ahead in first post-McBride survey

An opinion poll for The Sunday Telegraph puts the Tories 17% ahead.  That's an increased lead of 4% and would give the Conservatives a parliamentary majority of  114 according to UK Polling Report's Swing Calculator.

The poll is by a new entity called Marketing Sciences Ltd.  I understand that it is a sister company to ICM.  The changes in the graphic are therefore compared with the most recent ICM poll.  I have not put the numbers into the ConHome Poll of Polls, however, because I don't know if Marketing Sciences will be polling regularly.

Other poll findings:

• Voters think that Brown is MORE likely to resort to spin than Tony Blair.  Quite something!
• 36% of voters blame Brown for presiding over a dirty tricks culture in Downing Street but a larger proportion, 50% do not.
• 75% of voters say dumping Brown will make no difference to how they would vote.  Of those for whom it might make a difference 13% say it would make them less likely to support Labour and 11% more likely.

Tim Montgomerie

Gordon Brown's G20 mini-bounce lasted 48 hours: Populus poll shows Tory lead increasing to 13%

Tim's prediction that Gordon Brown's G20 bounce would be short and small would appear to have been conclusively proven. After the YouGov poll at the weekend showed a narrowing in the Tory lead to 7%, there is a new Populus poll in tomorrow's Times, which shows Labour flatlining on 30% and a slight increase in the Conservative lead to 13%. The parties stand on the following figures:

Populus interviewed a random sample of 1,512 adults between Friday and Monday.

Comparisons are with last month's Populus poll for the Times, which gave the Conservatives a 12% lead.

But there is bad new for all politicians as the poll investigated the public's feelings about the current media storm about MPs' pay and expenses:

"More than two-thirds of voters think that all or a majority of MPs abuse their expenses and allowances. Some 27 per cent say all or nearly MPs and 42 per cent think that a majority of MPs, abuse the system."

There is full analysis from The Times's Peter Riddell here.

Small G20 "Brown Bounce" reduces Tory lead to 7% in new YouGov poll

There is a new YouGov survey in tomorrow's Sunday Times, which puts the parties on the following standings:

Comparisons are with the most recent YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph published eight days ago.

You can view the full details on an Excel spreadsheet here.

Tim predicted a small, immediate bounce for Brown here yesterday - but also predicted that it won't last.

Jonathan Isaby

Brown's third bounce will be smaller and shorter than the first two

Listening to this morning's Today programme you might think that Gordon Brown had saved the world.  It's true that the G20 summit went better than many pundits had expected and it would be churlish to say that Brown didn't perform well.  The summit went well as an event and Brown was a beneficiary of the glow that still surrounds America's very popular new President.  I suspect that the Prime Minister will get an immediate boost in the opinion polls.  We'll know within days because there will be a YouGov survey for Sunday and a Populus poll in next week's Times.

But Peter Riddell is surely right to say that the G20 will not have a lasting effect. "There is no evidence that past summits have made any real difference domestically," he writes in this morning's Times.  There will be much more voter interest in Alistair Darling's budget - now just three weeks away.

ConservativeHome's Parliament page records George Osborne's reaction to the G20 communiqué.  The Shadow Chancellor welcomed the summit's progress on expanding the IMF facility, increasing trade finance and on regulation.  He noted, however, that Brown had failed to get an agreement on fiscal stimuli - once his biggest hope for the summit.  Mr Osborne also warned that the summit would appear remote to most British families:

"The question that the British people will ask tonight is what it all means for them, once the world leaders have left. There is still the small business that cannot get credit. There is still the mother working in the high street shop who fears for her job. There is still the family who fear for their home. The G20 will seem very remote for them. No $1 trillion boost for the IMF and trade finance will help us to deal with a £1 trillion national debt, which we are leaving to our children, thanks to this Government. The truth is that Britain will be clearing up the economic mess created by this Government long after the G20 show leaves town."

Tim Montgomerie

New ComRes poll puts Tory lead at 12%

A new ComRes poll for tomorrow's Independent has the parties on the following standings:

Also of interest will be the questions on the economy, notably the last, which suggests that the public is increasingly unconvinced by the massive borrowing upon which the Government is embarking:

"Gordon Brown has the right policies to get Britain out of recession"

• Agree - 31%
• Disagree - 58%

"Gordon Brown should focus more on finding a domestic solution to the economic crisis than a global one"

• Agree - 72%
• Disagree - 22%

"I am optimistic that the economy will improve before the end of this year"

• Agree - 27%
• Disagree - 70%

"The Government is right to increase borrowing by billions to boost the economy even if it means future tax rises"

• Agree - 30% (down from 33% in January)
• Disagree - 62% (up from 60% in January)

Jonathan Isaby

Public split on whether Tory IHT pledge should be a priority

The headline poll numbers suggest a Tory lead of 13% (1% more than the previous ICM survey).

The ICM/ Sunday Telegraph poll also asked if the Tory plan to raise the inheritance tax threshold to £1m should be a priority.  48% said yes, 48% said no.  More here.

Tory lead still 10% in latest YouGov poll - and people say public spending is too high

Tomorrow's YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph has all three parties' figures remaining the same as the YouGov poll for the Sunday Times earlier in the month. Indeed, the figures for the two main parties are also identical as the equivalent YouGov poll last month - the only difference being a two-point rise in the Lib Dem rating.

This would give the Conservatives a majority of 20, according to the UK Polling Report swing calculator (based on universal uniform national swing).

Of more interest in the details contained in the Daily Telegraph is the news that people are increasingly of the view that public spending is too high. Only 9% think the current level of public spending should be maintained, with more than two thirds believing that less should be spent on administration in public services.

However, whilst the Tories have a ten-point lead over Labour in terms of who is most trusted to run the economy well, 73% of people support a top rate tax band of 45% or more.

Jonathan Isaby

All pollsters now pointing to 10% to 12% Tory lead

A new ComRes survey for the Independent on Sunday suggests the Tory lead is down to 11%.  All the main five pollsters have the Conservatives 10% to 12% ahead.

ICM: Conservatives 12% ahead as Cameron's advantage over Brown widens

ICM monthly survey for The Guardian has none of the volatility of today's Ipsos-MORI poll.  The Tory advantage is steady at 12%.

Like other pollsters ICM finds David Cameron is increasing his advantage as favoured Prime Minister:

"David Cameron's personal lead over Gordon Brown is even bigger: 45% of those polled say he would make the best prime minister of the three main party leaders, compared with Brown's 24%. Cameron's 21-point lead over Brown is an increase of 13 points since the Guardian and ICM posed the same question in April 2008. About one in six Labour voters, 17%, say Cameron would be a better prime minister than Brown."

Tory lead down to 10% in new MORI poll

Those who worry about the volatility of Ipsos-MORI polls will have new ammunition.  Last month Ipsos-MORI had the Tories 20% ahead but this month the lead is down to 10%.  Nothing has happened in the last month to justify such a shift.

By way of footnote: As we get closer to hung parliament territory - although I don't believe we will - the role of the Liberal Democrats potentially grows.  The Indy's Steve Richards had a very interesting piece today saying that the LibDem rank-and-file would almost certainly veto any coalition with the Conservatives as part of a 'triple lock' that would have to approve any such arrangement.

Tim Montgomerie

Cameron's personal rating up sharply in new YouGov survey

A significant 17% increase in public approval of David Cameron has been recorded by YouGov in their monthly poll for The Sunday Times.  The only possible explanation must be the wave of public sympathy for the Tory leader produced by the tragic death of his precious son, Ivan.

The increased approval for Mr Cameron has not translated into increased support for the Conservative Party, however.  Tory strategists had hoped that the furore over Sir Fred Goodwin's pensions arrangements might have dented Labour's standing.  The poll will not have absorbed the impact of yesterday's significant apology by David Cameron.

Tim Montgomerie

Conservative voters are more enthusiastic about their party than Labourites and Lib Dems

Over on PoliticsHome there is encouraging news for the Conservative Party.

A poll of just over 1,000 voters found that there is a difference among the three parties in terms of how passionately they are supported. 47% of prospective Conservative voters said they were "very enthusiastic" about their choice, but only 34% of Labour supporters said the same and just 24% of Liberal Democrats. Fully 79% of Conservatives were very or quite enthusiastic. 11% of Liberal Democrats were "actively depressed" about voting for their preferred party - and who can blame them?

Tory lead narrows slightly in new Populus poll - but Conservatives remain 12% ahead of Labour

The latest Populus poll for The Times puts the parties on the following percentages:

These figures would compute into a Conservative majority in the House of Commons of 46 seats according to the UK Polling Report Swing Calculator.

Populus interviewed a random sample of 1,504 adults between Friday and Sunday. The equivalent poll last month gave the Tories a 14% lead.

The poll included a question asking voting intention broken down by voters' type of employment:

"Conservative support is 38 per cent in the public sector, but 45 per cent in the private sector, while Labour’s rating is slightly lower in the public than the private sector, at 26 against 29 per cent. The difference is partly because the Liberal Democrats do much better in the public than the private sector, at 23 against 17 per cent, and employees of the state sector are more inclined to back other parties, notably the Greens. The Tories are ahead amongst NHS and local government workers, while support amongst teachers splits almost evenly between the three main parties."

Read Peter Riddell's analysis from The Times in full here.

Tories back in the lead on economic competence

The headline numbers point to a Conservative majority of 122 but it will be the economic competence numbers that most encourage the Tory leadership:

"When asked to put their party allegiance aside and name the party they trusted most to steer Britain through the crisis, 35 per cent opt for the Tory team of David Cameron and George Osborne, 28 per cent for Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling and nine per cent for the Liberal Democrats’ Nick Clegg and Vince Cable."

Memo to Obama: Enjoy your time with Brown but know that he ain't going to be about for long.

Tim Montgomerie

YouGov: Tories 10% ahead

More in The Telegraph.

ICM: 12% Tory lead

Con 42%, Lan 30%, LD 18%. More in The Guardian.

More later.

11pm: The graphic you've all been waiting for...