ConservativeHome's ToryDiary

Year2(12): Frame the next General Election as a choice between Labour and the Conservatives

Recommendation 12: I've saved what I think is ConservativeHome's most important recommendation for last... It is very difficult to see the Conservative Party winning a parliamentary majority without reducing the number of Liberal Democrat MPs.  There is little sign of the Conservative Party unseating the fifteen to twenty-five LibDems that is probably going to be necessary.  That is not to say that David Cameron hasn't done a number of things that will make the task easier.  Candidates like Philip Morton and Jesse Norman are being selected early in LibDem-Tory marginals.  The gentler, greener Conservatism of David Cameron will reassure those 'Waitrose voters' who left the party for the LibDems.  Lord Ashcroft's marginal seats operation will ensure  better targeting of limited resources.  But I still do not think that this is going to be enough.  The best way of defeating the LibDems will be to convince the electorate that (1) only a Conservative government will rid Britain of Labour and (2) that Labour deserves to be ousted.  Any vote for another party - be it the LibDems, the Greens or UKIP - will risk Labour staying in office or could result in a messy hung parliament.  'A Liberal Vote Is A Wasted Vote' was one of the Conservative Party's most powerful slogans in the 1960s and 1970s.  We need a modern , creative equivalent of that message and it needs to feature prominently in all of our election literature, party political broadcasts and emails.

Year 2(11): David Cameron should do less

Recommendation 11: David Cameron is making a number of speeches and announcements every week.  This devalues his status.  'Less is more' is the right maxim at this stage of the parliament.  An announcement from the Conservative Party leader should not be routine - it should be an event.  David Cameron already appears in election mode with a visit, a press conference and a major speech all in the last few days.  If he stands back a little some of his shadow cabinet colleagues can step forward and voters can evaluate the team around him.  It will also mean that when he does speak the quality of the product will be that bit more special.

Year 2(10): Establish a northern HQ

Recommendation 10: The Conservative Party needs a powerful campaigns and policy centre in the north of England - perhaps Leeds.  Functions from CCHQ that do not need to be in London should migrate there.  The northern HQ should coordinate regional media and be headed up by a charismatic, political figure.  It should have the special task of recruiting talented new candidates and developing policies for urban Britain.  It mustn't be just a campaigns centre but a genuine home for thinking about the challenges of England's northern cities and local governments.

The final two recommendations will be posted tomorrow.

Year 2(9): Management of the Policy Group reports

Recommendation 9: It is vital that the party anticipates the difficulties that are going to be presented by the gap of time between the Policy Reviews reporting and the leadership deciding which recommendations to embrace.  Team Cameron have reacted quickly to the Tax and Social Justice reports – shunning one and embracing the other.  Will they be able to react so quickly in future?  If not, how will they deal with the Labour offensive against more controversial policy group recommendations that may need some defence?

Year 2(8): Anticipate difficult results in next year's Scottish and Welsh elections

Recommendation 8: Next May’s Scottish and Welsh results are likely to be very difficult for the Conservative Party.  David Cameron has improved the party's opinion poll standing but progress in Wales and Scotland, in particular, is very limited and the party is unlikely to make significant gains.  There is a danger that there may even be some defeats in Scotland.  The party must act now to be able to show that it is making progress in parts of England where there will need to be progress at the General Election.  That means targeting special resources on a few English councils where success can be celebrated on the morning after polling day.  The model is Ken Baker's 1990 tactic of focusing upon winning Wandsworth and Westminster boroughs in an otherwise difficult election year.

Year2(7) Strengthen the press operation

Recommendation 7: George Eustice currently coordinates media for David Cameron but he is having to do so with a much smaller team than his predecessors.  The lack of a broad and experienced team has meant certain storms have not been brought under control quickly enough.  The Polly Toynbee and Tosser affairs should never have been allowed to grow so big but the incident that has caused most upset amongst MPs was the hug-a-hoodie debacle.  The appointment of a senior communications executive at CCHQ and a stronger team for the regional media are both essential.

Year2(6): Swap Hague and Osborne

Recommendation 6: George Osborne’s pro-American, Eurosceptic and hawkish views will make him an ideal Foreign Secretary.  If Hague can become full-time after his much-anticipated Wilberforce book is finished he’ll be a reassuring Shadow Chancellor opposite Brown's likely successor, Alistair Darling.

Year2(5): Put a grassroots favourite in charge of CCHQ

Recommendation 5: 32% of Tory members are dissatisfied with David Cameron and the party leader desperately needs a party chairman who can energise activists by explaining the leader's ambitions to Associations  throughout the country.  Francis Maude was the right man to oversee the A-list and the reforms to CCHQ but his negative approval ratings mean that he is not the Chairman to take the party up to the next General Election.  The party needs a grassroots favourite in the hotseat at CCHQ.  Someone who can address the fact that some of the party's best known right-wingers are outside of the shadow cabinet.  ConservativeHome does not suggest that Francis Maude should be removed from the frontbench but his modernising mission at CCHQ is on its way to being accomplished.  Mr Cameron now needs a different Chairman.

Year2(4): Abolish the A-list

Recommendation 4: I hear the A-list has been topped-up again and, of course, a few A-listers might soon be culled but isn't it time for it to be scrapped?  It has succeeded in increasing the number of female candidates but only at the expense of creating a large number of disaffected activists and of dividing Associations like Tynemouth.  My guess is that its tutorial effect will continue after it has been abolished.  Associations understand the leadership's desire for a more representative party but they also know that the A-list only offers a face-deep diversity.  It includes very few people with public sector backgrounds and is heavily skewed to the south east of England.  Given the A-list's recent successes it would be an apposite time for it to be abolished without too much negative PR and then relations between the centre and local associations could start to heal.

Year2(3): Neutralise Brown

Recommendation 3: According to yesterday's Times 66% of voters do not believe that David Cameron has put a stop to “the Punch and Judy politics of Westminster: the name-calling, backbiting, point-scoring and finger-pointing”.  Part of the reason for this might be the fact that both David Cameron and George Osborne have been guilty of some pretty obvious 'Punchy and Judy' politics (see here and here).  The Tory leadership need to be above personal attack and handwriting analysis.  More attention needs to be focused on the Chancellor's dismal record (economic competitiveness, the tax burden, social justice and waste).  Going forward Gordon Brown is likely to emphasise security, The Union, housing and skills.  Two of David Cameron's most capable frontbenchers hold the housing and skills portfolios - Michael Gove and John Hayes.  Strong policies in both of those areas  will be vital to neutralising Brown's likely appeal.

Year2(2): David Cameron must show more steel

Recommendation 2: Over the last year David Cameron has moved the party on to the centre ground of British politics and he's been careful to build bridges with people that have turned away from the Conservative Party of recent times.  The most notable outreach has been to public sector workers.  David Cameron has often appeared at pains to avoid offending anyone (other than Simon Heffer).  We saw more steel from the Tory leader earlier this week in his unequivocal defence of marriage.  We need to see much more of the same.  Two of the world's most interesting politicians - Australia's John Howard and America's John McCain - have built their reputations on straight-talking.  They've been willing to adopt unpopular positions if they think the national interest demands it.  Their popularity has only grown as a result.  Voters won't want another Blair at the next election.   The voters who are threatening to emigrate from Britain in huge numbers don't want a politician who stands with the British establishment.  They want a politician with the guts to overturn the status quo where that establishment is failing most.

Year2(1): Focus more on crime and security

Following on from last week's review of the peaks, troughs, modernising and reassurance moments of David Cameron's first year, ConservativeHome spends today proposing twelve actions that will help Project Cameron to make the best of its second year and build upon the modest 3% Tory lead in ConservativeHome's poll of polls.

Recommendation 1: The Conservative Party has been an imbalanced project for far too long.  At the last General Election Michael Howard focused far too much on immigration and reinforced a negative image of the Conservative Party.  In his first year as Tory leader David Cameron has placed a heavy emphasis on very different themes - notably the environment and increasing the number of female candidates.  The danger is that the 'new' Conservative Party looks as imbalanced as the 'old' Conservative Party.  Every 'Waitrose voter' gained is erased by the 'Bromley voter' who stays at home.  The south and ABs warm to Cameron as the north and C2s cool.  ConservativeHome welcomes David Cameron's greener, gentler conservatism but the 'politics of and' argues that we must also talk about crime and tax and immigration.  There have been welcome signs in recent days that David Cameron is rebalancing the Tory message and is offering some grittier positioning.  More than anything else the party must work on its homeland security credentials.  Homeland security is the coming issue.  It is almost inevitable that Britain will be struck again and again in future years by acts of terrorism.  The Conservative Party must not be weaker than Labour on this issue.  Prosperity and security, as John Howard understands, is the fundamental 'politics of and'.

Melanie Phillips on David Cameron's first year

I had lunch with Daily Mail columnist Melanie Phillips yesterday and she recorded this five minute assessment of David Cameron's first year as 'Blue Labour leader' for 18 Doughty Street Talk TV.

DC@1: The Ten Troughs

In the fourth of a series of ten point guides to David Cameron's first year as Tory leader, ConservativeHome looks at the 'ten biggest troughs' of the last twelve months.

1. It didn't take one month before the right-of-centre press started to worry and worry again and again about Project Cameron.  Lord Tebbit launched his first serious attack on David Cameron's leadership in January when he encouraged the Tory leader to focus more on the bread and butter issues of pensions, schools and hospitals.  He would later accuse the Tory leader of trying to "purge the memory of Thatcherism" and of alienating bedrock voters.
2. The first results of ConservativeHome's poll of grassroots members confirmed membership hostility to the A-list and to the leader's policy on new grammar schools.  On many subsequent occasions the poll would illustrate the gap between Project Cameron and large numbers of grassroots activists.
3. David Cameron's attack on UKIP members as "cloest racists" and "fruitcakes" is widely condemned and gives UKIP the oxygen of publicity.
4. The MIrror's photo scoop that showed a Government driver following the bicycling Tory leader with clean shirt, polished shoes and briefcase - and which was later acknowledged as regrettable by the Tory leader (click on image on right to enlarge).
5. Constant problems with the A-list including a shortage of women applicants, the unwillingness of A-listers to apply for difficult seats and a determination by local associations to choose non A-listers.
6. A scribbled oak tree became the new Tory logo although the party could have saved itself the £40,000 charge if it had used the one ConservativeHomies devised for free.  The logo was leaked ten days before it was due to be launched.
7. The lowest moment of the year came when the LibDems came close to unseating the Tories in the Bromley & Chislehurst by-election.  Since that by-election the Tories have done very little to address the danger of stay-at-home-supporters.
8. The delay to the promise to leave the EPP wasn't just about Europe - for many grassroots Tories it struck at David Cameron's reputation for trustworthiness.
9. The delay to the unsuccessful hunt for a London Mayoral candidate - predicted and predictable and part of CCHQ's continuing inadequacy.
10. Despite suggestions to the contrary, ConservativeHome calculated that Tory membership has probably fallen since David Cameron's election.

The first ten point guide in this series looked at The Peaks of DC's first year, the second at 'Modernising Moments' and the third at 'Reassurance Moments'.  The fifth and final post in this series will look at The Quotations of the last year.

DC@1: The Ten Reassurance Moments

In the third of a series of ten point guides to David Cameron's first year as Tory leader, ConservativeHome looks at the 'ten biggest reassurance events' of the last twelve months; the moments when the Tory leader communicated a more recognisable conservatism to the party's traditional supporters.

1. David Davis is kept in charge of home affairs and given the lead on drugs policy (although David Cameron later refused to rule out shooting galleries).
2. Ex-director of innovative think tank Nick Herbert is given the job of spearheading police reform and delights the Right with initial thinking.
3. An excellent speech to the Centre for Social Justice promised to build the nation of the second chance. The speech emphasised marriage and the family - a theme that began David Cameron's leadership bid in the summer of 2005 and was reaffirmed in his 2006 party conference speech.
4. David Cameron reaffirms Michael Howard's 'prisons works' policy.
5. The party has also been willing to take on the left-wing media.  George Osborne has targeted the BBC's tendency to crowd out competitors, Hugo Swire has cautioned against an excessive licence fee increase and Tory MPs have lined up to attack BBC profligacy and bias.  Only this week George Osborne proposed to put public sector job advertising online - a move that could be deadly for The Guardian.
   
6. A commitment to scrap the Human Rights Act (which was condemned by Ken Clarke).
7. A commitment to bring in English votes for English laws (which was recommended by Ken Clarke).
8. A re-emphasis of the party's homeland security credentials after August's airline terror scare.
9. The beefing up of the rather banal Built To Last document happened after a nationwide consultation but the beefing up did not include tax or immigration.
10. David Cameron's decision to back the renewal of Britain's Trident-based nuclear deterrent.

The first ten point guide in this series looked at The Peaks of DC's first year and the second at 'Modernising Moments'.  The next will look at The Troughs of the last year.

DC@1: The Ten Major Modernising Moments

In the second of a few ten point guides to David Cameron's first year as Tory leader, ConservativeHome looks at the 'ten biggest modernising events' of the last twelve months...

1. David Cameron presents himself as a 'liberal Conservative' in an overt pitch to LibDem voters and the culmination of an ultimately successful push to destabilise Charles Kennedy's leadership.
2. The announcement of the A-list - focusing on diversity of gender and skin colour; rather than upbringing and life experiences.
3. Michael Howard's dog-whistle approach to immigration politics is abandoned with a promise that genuine refugees should be taken "to our hearts", fed, clothed and schooled.
4. Oliver Letwin's commitment to redistribution was an indication of David Cameron's later decision to declare war on relative poverty.  On tax, global warming and inequality, Oliver Letwin has emerged as a leading influence on David Cameron - just behind Steve Hilton.
5. The patient's passport is abandoned and with Stephen Dorrell's appointment to the public services policy group it becomes clear that Majorism is back in charge of health policy.  David Cameron made a speech praising the public sector ethos and put the NHS at the centre of his party conference speech.
6. John Redwood once said that the Tories were the party of lower taxation or they were nothing.  David Cameron and George Osborne would spurn John Redwood, Rupert Murdoch and Lord Forsyth's Tax Commission, however, in their controversial insistence that stability must come before action to reverse the heaviest tax burden in British history. Instead of lower taxation the Tories promise to put up blue-green taxes and reduce the tax burden on businesses and families.
7. The Tories backed away from their traditional support of nuclear power - more accurately, the Tory leadership backed away from nuclear power. Alan Duncan actually consulted Tory MPs and found overwhelming support for a new generation of nuclear power stations but that didn't stop him making nuclear energy the policy of last resort.
8. William Hague visits Washington and distances the party from the Bush administration and later adopted the European worldview on Israel.  Also on the foreign policy front we see David Cameron repudiate Margaret Thatcher's apartheid policy.
9. David Cameron embraces proposals from Andrew Tyrie MP that would produce a step increase in state funding of political parties.
10. The commitment to tackle climate change has arguably been the most significant change David Cameron has made to the Conservative Party.  The huskies trip to the Norwegian glacier was the iconic illustration of this change.

The first ten point guide in this series looked at The Peaks of DC's first year.  The next will list the 'Reassurance Moments'.

DC@1: The Ten Peaks

In the first of a few ten point guides to David Cameron's first year as Tory leader, ConservativeHome looks at the 'ten peaks' of the last twelve months...

1. One day after becoming leader, David Cameron shone at PMQs and produced his memorable 'You were the future once' line against Tony Blair.  He also started as he meant to go on with questions about climate change and attacks on Punch and Judy politics (Punch's stick to be readopted later).
2. Cameron's election gave the Tories an immediate lead in the opinion polls and reasonable leads continue for most of his first year.  At the end of twelve months of Project Cameron the ConservativeHome Poll of Polls gives the Tories a 3.75% lead.
3. The Cameron effect (with a little help from Mr Johnnie Walker) sees Charles Kennedy resign as LibDem leader.
4. In January David Cameron was named as the 92nd most sexy man in the world.  David Cameron continually took the party into territory it had long struggled to win - a good interview in GQ, an invite to David Beckham's World Cup party, that Jonathan Ross interview and a top ranking from TimeOut illustrated why the Conservative leader became Britain's most wanted party guest (according to Tatler, anyway).
5. A constant ability to confuse Labour.  From the beginning Labour have struggled to find the right critique of David Cameron and his Project.  Labour's lowest point came with the Chameleon Dave campaign and a poll that likened the Blairs to a snake and a leech.
6. The passage of Tony Blair's Education Bill was only secured with Tory support.
7. Labour's triple whammy Wednesday saw Charles Clarke (prisoner release scandal), Patricia Hewitt (jeered by nurses) and John Prescott (adulterous affair) gift the Tories a huge advantage for the local elections.
8. The local council results which saw big gains at Labour's expense (particularly in London) and no progress for the becalmed LibDems.
9. The next best day comes in September with the meltdown in the leadership of Tony Blair - the Conservative Party's deadliest political opponent - and Cameron's astute non-reaction.
10. David Cameron's commitment to the environment saw the issue propelled to the top of the British political agenda (and was recognised at the ConservativeHome Awards).

Other ten point guides will focus on modernising and then reassurance moments; 'troughs' and memorable quotes.

The best and worst of David Cameron

David Cameron has just been interviewed for ITV1's Sunday Edition programme.  There are two quotes of note; one good, one bad.

QUOTE 1 ON HUG-A-HOODIE: "If people attack me when I say that, when I say that some of these young people have had no relationships in their life, they've had no love in their life, they've had no-one caring for them, no-one teaching them the difference between right and wrong, if people criticise me for that I say look I'll go on saying that because everybody knows it's true."

The Tory leader never, of course, used the infamous 'hug-a-hoodie' expression - what he was trying to get at in his much misinterpreted speech was the lack of love and social support that puts young people on the conveyor belt to crime.  That speech was deeply humane.  David Cameron still believes in tough action against crime - as he made clear on Thursday - but he knows (as Mr Blair once appeared to understand) that you can't just be tough on criminals, you need to be tough on the things that drive people to be criminal, too.

QUOTE 2 ON STRATEGIC DIRECTION: "Yes, I get attacked by newspapers who'd like me to just bring out all the old policies, but I haven't wavered one inch from the strategy that I said was the right thing for our party and also the right thing for our country, because you've got to do the right thing in politics, you can't be blown off course by one commentator or another having a bit of a pop at you - that's part of life."

There are two faults evident here.  One is an unhelpful misrepresentation of his critics.  Few want David Cameron to "just bring out all the old policies" - they want him to balance the new with the familar.  Not to abandon his gentler, greener conservatism but to demonstrate to people that he's aware of the damage role that the EU plays in British life and that our borders are terribly insecure, for example.  'Not wavering one inch' isn't leadership - its stubborness.  Yes, we want a strong leader but we also want a leader who listens - particularly to friendly critics - like this website.

One-third of Tory members are dissatisfied with David Cameron's leadership

As reported in The Observer, the latest survey of the ConservativeHome Members' Panel has identified a sharp increase in dissatisfaction with the Tory leader.  Although 67% of members are satisfied with his performance (26% very satisfied, 41% fairly), the number dissatisfied has increased from 24% to 32% over the last month.  15% of this dissatisfied number are 'very dissatisfied'.

A full 43% of members think that the party has gone too far in modernising the party and distancing itself from traditional policies.  47% think the pace and extent of change has been about right.  11% want David Cameron to go further.

The survey, which received more than 2,000 responses, took place after the controversy over Polly Toynbee, the 'Tosser within' advertising campaign and a couple of opinion polls that saw the Tories behind in the opinion polls.  Dissatisfaction with David Cameron appears to be rooted in the leader's failure to address core issues of concern to party members but many members appear willing to forgive this failure when the party's opinion poll position improves.

Editor's comment: "Even amongst the dissatisfied I sense little appetite for a change of leadership.   What members are doing through a survey like this is registering a protest at the direction of the party and the leadership's unwillingness to talk about the range of issues that worry the public."

>>> More results of the survey will be published later.

Year two of Project Cameron needs more breadth

Within David Cameron's interview for this morning's Daily Telegraph there are welcome hints of more emphasis on the teaching of British history, greater independence for schools and support for marriage.  Activists will also like the Conservative leader's clear renunciation of Polly Toynbee's politics:

"We are not saying adopt Polly Toynbee's policy. She is a statist, she is a Gordon Brownist."

But David Cameron's overall message to the Tory grassroots is that he's determined to press ahead with his modernisation agenda.  These words are indicative:

"I am very clear about the direction in which we are going. The Conservative Party needs to get into the centre ground on the issues on which people talking about. It is no good having a manifesto devoted to immigration and Europe if people are interested in health and education."

Does Mr Cameron really believe that voters are not interested in immigration?  Few Conservatives object to the party talking about schools and hospitals.  Nearly every Conservative activist I know has reported that recent NHS Action Days have been hugely successful.  The grassroots will be delighted at a greater emphasis on the teaching of British history.  If Mr Cameron had spent his first year on these bread and butter issues activists would not be as restless as they are becoming.  Instead the emphasis on the environment has been almost messianic but has offered no answers to key questions about the failure of the Kyoto approach or the marginal role that Britain can play in arresting global warming.

The problem with the first year of Project Cameron has been a consistent lack of balance:

• Centre-right Tories who supported David Cameron in the leadership contest knew that there was going to be modernisation but they understood that it would not be at the expense of traditional fare.  They were told, for example, that in the first few weeks of the Cameron leadership there would be a modernising drive for more women candidates but there would also be exit from the EPP.  The first has been delivered - the second has not.
• The search for a representative pool of candidates has itself been flawed - even superficial.  There has been a search for women and ethnic minority candidates but no deeper search for candidates from the north or from outside the law, politics and the City.  Nothing has been done to address the huge costs of becoming a Conservative candidate.
• The Tories may be progressing healthily in the south but in northern England there is little good news.  'Waitrose voter' has been wooed assiduously but the Tories are offering little hope to the 'Morrisons voter' who is overburdened by Labour's taxes and failed by inadequate policing. 
• The party is also becalmed in Scotland and Wales where there are crucial Parliamentary/ Assembly elections next May.

There is still time to put all of this right but the Tory leadership will be making a serious mistake if it thinks the grumblings of the grassroots should be ignored.  65% of grassroots members told ConservativeHome in September that the party's poll lead was too modest given the troubles of the Government.  They - rooted in real communities - appear to better understand that only a broader and more authentic Conservatism will deliver the victory that Mr Cameron's personal skills are so well-suited to deliver.

The Guardian profiles Steve Hilton (and misses the elephant in the room)

Pictures from today's Guardian of Steve Hilton 'webcameroning' the Tory leader during their India trip.

This morning's Telegraph calls him the party's real deputy leader and there's a useful profile of Steve Hilton in this morning's Guardian although Patrick Wintour and Tania Branigan miss one of the most important features of the man who is undoubtedly the most important political influence on David Cameron.

That most important feature is Steve Hilton's control freak tendency.  ConservativeHome regularly hears from inside CCHQ about a project becoming stalled because it is still awaiting the green light from The Director of Strategy.  Most Tory leaders have shared a low opinion of CCO/ CCHQ and David Cameron has already been burnt by CCHQ.  The early problems with the A-list, the mishandled Mayoral process, the Bromley by-election operation and basic problems of membership management have only encouraged Steve Hilton in his belief that CCHQ requires micromanagement.  Hilton and Francis Maude's relationship has often been very strained as each competes to knock an often dysfunctional operation into shape.  Francis Maude is fairly portrayed as an ultra-moderniser but even the Party Chairman has had to moderate Steve Hilton's desires for greater central control of the candidate selection process.

The Guardian also fails to mention Steve Hilton's controversial £23,000pcm remuneration package.  We've never learnt if that was a temporary measure - as was said at the time - or if it continues.

What is certain about Steve Hilton is that no Tory adviser has ever enjoyed such influence on a party leader in modern times.  It is also true that he has managed to combine his dominant role with being very well liked.  People respect his creativity and his commitment.  His drive to control David Cameron's message and get CCHQ to perform as he wishes is entirely transparent and his colleagues have respect and affection for him.  The danger is that his dominance is excluding other voices - but that's a subject for another day.