ConservativeHome's ToryDiary

Total Politics

Last night saw the launch of Total Politics magazine from the 29th floor of Millbank tower. Its website went live over the weekend and promises to be a useful go-to point for information about British politics.

As well as hosting most of the monthly magazine's content, the website has a repository of political blog links, a daily Q&A with political figures, and a few blogs including a Local Government one that Eric Pickles will be contributing to.  ConHome readers might be particularly interested in TP's interview with Lynton Crosby - the man behind Boris Johnson's victory.

The magazine is sent to all politicians in the country and is, as its publisher Iain Dale said last night, unashamedly positive about and focused on the political process, rather like the Campaigns & Elections Politics magazine in the US. We wish it well.

Philip Dunne MP reveals Labour's latest insult to rural Britain

Research for the Centre for Policy Studies by Conservative MP Philip Dunne has revealed how Gordon Brown has used his control of the nation's purse strings to tilt the growth of funding towards urban Britain - much of it Labour's heartlands.

Commenting to The Telegraph, Mr Dunne said:

"Gordon Brown has a simple strategy to win the next election: to bribe his areas of traditional strength with money pinched from Tory-voting shires. Central government grants of all kinds to councils and other public bodies have increased far faster in cities and big towns than they have in country area.  We have witnessed a deliberate policy of switching taxpayers' money from the country to the city. It has been done in secret, with no announcement, no public debate, no explanation and no justification."

The leader-writers at The Telegraph agree that politics explains the change:

"Country people have made the mistake of refusing to return Labour councils. Indeed, in the southern counties, Labour has virtually disappeared as a political force - an eviction far more dramatic, though less remarked, than the paucity of Tories in Liverpool and Manchester.  Put bluntly, spending more in an area makes its inhabitants likelier to look to the state for their livelihood, which in turn makes them likelier to vote for the high-tax party."

The rural-to-urban drift of funding - previously highlighted by Owen Paterson MP - is only one manifestation of Gordon Brown's use of the highest and stealthiest tax burden in British history to buy votes.

There is the subsidy of Scotland and Wales and the transfer of money from south to north generally.  The massive growth in public sector employment and the quangocracy.   And, of course, the subsidy of the trade unions in return for them paying 90%+ of the Labour Party's bills.

Cameron points to importance of low council tax in last week's victories

The Spectator's Political Editor Fraser Nelson has interviewed the Tory leader for this week's edition.  Here are some of the things we learn from the interview (that isn't yet online):

"[David Cameron] has two mobile telephones, one for speaking and one for reading emails. One phone has the ring tone taken from 24 — the hit television show about a counter-terrorist agent who regularly escapes mortal peril. ‘It’s an in-joke,’ the Tory leader says."

"‘Asking people to change their government is a big decision, and that is why there is not an ounce of complacency from me after the local results,’ he says. ‘There’s an enormous amount of reassurance we have to give people — that we have the right leader, a strong team, that we will take no risks with the economy and that we have a clearly worked-out plan for public services.’" Interesting that the emphasis is all on reassuring, rather than energising voters.

"‘If you take the local elections, there was no doubt in my mind that it was easiest to campaign in those places where Conservative councils really did have a record of keeping the council tax down, or at least promising to limit the increase,’ he says. ‘I haven’t done the sums. But I’m pretty sure that the areas where we did best were those where we were able to say: look, we’re in government here, we are helping with the cost of living, we understand your problems and difficulties.’"  Encouraging.

1st May, a celebration in pictures

Pasted below are some memories - in pictures - of last week's electoral breakthrough.  Enjoy!  Please email us if you have other photographs or screen captures.

Tories promise "policy striptease" as Brown bores on

Gordon Brown was on Andrew Marr and Adam Boulton this morning.

It's not clear why Gordon Brown bothered.  He offered no new message - just the usual tired talk of listening and facing up to long-term challenges.  Mr Brown told Adam Boulton (who pressed the PM much harder than the deferential Marr)  that he wouldn't hold a 'put up or shut up' leadership challenge to his critics, as John Major did in 1995.

Thursday had been a referendum on Labour, Mr Brown said, but the next election would be a choice between Labour and the Conservatives.  He said that he "relished" the prospect of beating David Cameron at the next General Election.

If Brown bored the Conservatives plan to excite, says a leader in The Sunday Times.  The leader-writers say that the Conservatives "plan a slow striptease over the next two years to unveil the policies that will form the basis of their manifesto."

ConservativeHome understands that this "striptease" aims to address the "enthusiasm challenge" and will include a heavy emphasis on measures to tackle crime and school failure.  The social justice agenda is also going to be 'bigged up' as the party aims to build on lower income voters' loss of faith in Labour after the 10p fiasco.

And let's not forget the LibDems.  Professor John Curtice in The Sunday Telegraph notes that Thursday was also poor for them (our emphasis):

"Outside London the Liberal Democrat vote slipped for the fourth year in a row. With 25 per cent of the equivalent national vote, the party recorded its weakest local election performance for a decade.  Fortunately for Nick Clegg, his party's slide was masked by a modest net gain of 31 seats and Labour's even more dismal performance. But in London, where there was no such camouflage, the party's vote was down on 2004 by between five and six points in both the mayoral race and the assembly contests."

It is very significant that voters are deciding that a vote for the Conservatives, in this mid-term moment, is the best way to most punish Labour.  We now need to make sure that - come the General Election - voters understand that a vote for the Conservatives is the only sure way of ending Labour rule.

3pm video: Sky's 18 minute interview with Gordon Brown

Thursday night's other winners and losers

We know that Ken Livingstone and Gordon Brown are the big losers of Thursday's elections (in the same way that David Cameron and Boris Johnson are the big winners).  But here a few other winners and losers:

1. Winner: Eric Pickles. He has done an enormous amount over many years to nurture Conservative talent in local government. The Tories ran a superb elections night operation and Eric was at the heart of it (with his chief of staff, Andrew Griffiths). His interview on yesterday's Today programme and this morning's Week in Westminster were masterful performances. The party has a new star in Mr Pickles (see him in our behind-the-scenes photos from Thursday night).
2. Loser: Jeremy Vine. His graphics for BBC on elections night - portraying Brown as Bean etc - were childish. When will our public service broadcaster realise that the kind of people still watching local elections coverage at 2.30am in the morning are likely to be very interested in politics?  They don't need to be given gimmicky coverage.  Mike Smithson has rightly attacked the dumbed-down BBC coverage.  Watch Jeremy Vine from last year when he put Ming Campbell into Ali G gear.  Please could someone put this year's nonsense on YouTube?  (Someone now has, thanks)
3. Winner: The blogosphere.  The blogs provided the best coverage throughout election night.  Iain Dale's blogging was at its best - funny, informative, fast.  Mike Smithson's Political Betting had the best insights to the polls throughout the campaign.  And, if we may say so, we were quite pleased at the vindication of us 'calling it for Boris' on Thursday night at 9.59pm.  The last two days have been massive for us with 95,386 hits yesterday.  We normally get between 20,000 on a normal day and 30,000 on a good day.  But if you think we're being cocky, see (12) below.
4. Loser: Michael Portillo.  He dissed the Tory performance throughout BBC's elections night coverage and suggested 44% wasn't enough.  Iain Dale represented all of us in this video clip when he wondered if Michael Portillo would ever be satisfied at any Tory performance.
5. Winner: YouGov.  All of its six polls pointed to a Boris Johnson victory.  All other pollsters said it was 'too close to call' or that Ken Livingstone was likely to win.  Election after election YouGov have proven that the critics of internet polling are wrong.  If YouGov hadn't have been polling we may have seen a different dynamic to the London race with less belief in Boris' credibility and more confidence inside Linvingstone's lair.  (We should declare at this point that ConservativeHome is owned by Stephan Shakespeare, founder of YouGov).
6. Loser: The Livingstone-friendly, low circulation London newspapers that received lots of adverts from the Livingstone empire. Boris must review where London taxpayers' money goes.  Far too much money is spent going to factional newspapers that depend on public subsidy - delivered indirectly by mass advertising.
7. Winner: The London Evening Standard.  It led the exposure of Ken Livingstone's cronyism. Boris Johnson's victory owes much to the courage of Veronica Wadley and Andrew Gilligan.  Although in an intensely competitive environment it is suffering circulation decline, the Standard showed that it still matters.  It also deserves credit for commissioning the six YouGov polls.
8. Loser: Simon Heffer.  His attack on Boris Johnson on Wednesday was mean-spirited and only likely to serve Ken Livingstone.  The Livingstone campaign rushed out key quotations from his piece to all London news agencies.  When confronting him for Telegraph TV, Liz Hunt accused Mr Heffer of being motivated by jealousy.  Johnson didn't deserve the poison pen treatment from the man who actually wrote the anti-Liverpool editorial in The Spectator that caused Boris such difficulty a few years ago.
9. Winner: The Tory activist.  How long have we all waited for a night like Thursday night?  But it didn't come easy.  On Thursday night we won the Edgbaston ward in Birmingham with 60% of the vote.  Years ago when activists like Guy Hordern were contesting it, it was just beyond our reach.  But it was hardworkers like Guy that ensured the Tory flame never expired in urban Britain.  They kept contesting seats, fundraising, door-knocking and now with Tories leading Birmingham - with the LibDems - the party's recovery is built on the foundations of the activists who never gave up in the leaner times.  Guy now plays an important role in building good relations between Birmingham Conservatives and the city's voluntary and faith communities.
10. Loser: Islamic extremism.  As Paul Goodman MP writes for us today: Livingstone gave comfort to the most extreme voices within Islam.   Thursday night - with bad results for Livingstone, Galloway and Respect - London restored its full international standing.
11. Winner: CoverItLive.  The chatroom software we used throughout election day and which was taken up by Guido, Slugger and other bloggers.  We're going to be doing much more with CoverItLive and please get in touch with us if you'd be willing to help moderate chatrooming lots more events.  We're hoping to set up a chatroom for every edition of BBC1's Question Time, for example, carrying on through This Week with Andrew Neil.
12. Loser: Hares.  Some of us have wanted the party to be bolder.  Bolder on the economy, bolder on social justice, bolder in foreign policy.  With Labour collapsing, and the Tories looking so electorally strong the case for boldness is going to have to be made with greater skill - a task we'll be returning to in the week beginning 12th May with a series of features.

Tomorrow we'll be listing the people behind Campaign Boris that deserve a free drink or two when you bump into them next.

When was the last time the Tories had such a good night?

Winning London.  Ousting Ken Livingstone - something never achieved by Margaret Thatcher or Tony Blair.  Holding as many councils in Wales as Labour.  Winning Bury in the North West and North Tyneside in the NE.  Winning Southampton - an achievement that elections specialist Michael Thrasher said was beyond the reach of any party.  More than 300 extra councillors - three times as many gains as the LibDems.  A 44% share of the national vote.  Not only Labour defeated but clueless as to how they might recover.  A majority of Westminster insiders now (for the first time) predicting Tory victory at the next General Election.

There's still a lot of work to do over the next two years but 1st May 2008 was a great night for the Conservatives.  When was the last time we had such a good night?

• Sixteen years ago - 1992?  Our last General Election victory - won against all the odds with more than 13 14 million votes.
• Twenty-five years ago - 1983?  Our best ever General Election victory in modern times when Thatcherism triumphed and the defeat of Michael Foot began the modernisation of the Labour Party?

Hat tip to News Biscuit graphic for the image above.

Interactive election results chatroom

Elections news for Friday

10.18pm: Boris 520,905, Ken 454,518 after 7 constituencies - PoliticsHome.com

Boris reportedly won 56%, Livingstone 29% in Tories' safest London area, West Central 

9.56pm: Matthew Parris' column in tomorrow's Times lists the words politicians use in the event of defeats like that suffered by Labour yesterday: wake-up call; message from the electorate; take it on the chin; listen to voters; learn lessons; heed concerns; need for change; get back in touch; sharpen up the act; show contrition; find a new narrative;  sense of purpose;feel their pain; show humility; understand more; blitz of initiatives; simpler messages; sharpen the argument; clearer sense of direction; relaunch/refocus/rediscover/; redefine/repair/refresh/reshuffle/rethink/renew; begin fightback; still two years left.

9.40pm: Stephen Tall is a great guy but he's telling other LibDem bloggers that his party has had a good night.  Really?  Team Clegg got a smaller national vote share than Team Ming. 

9.33pm: PoliticsHome.com is providing the fastest results service via its 'Green Box'. 

9.31pm: The results are a verdict on Blairism and capitalism says Tony Benn.  Is Mr Benn really saying that Livingstone wasn't left enough?

9.25pm: John Leonard leaves a comment with the wonderful news that fellow blogger James Cleverly has been elected to the GLA with a majority of 75,000.  Many congratulations James!

7.51pm: The Evening Standard has declared it for Boris.  Are we allowed to say 22 hours after us?

7.42pm: We've just posted very encouraging results from Crewe and Nantwich. Now let's win that by-election!!

7.17pm: The Yorkshire Conservatives' blog records their council gains.

7.11pm: Labour losses now 434, Tories +300, LibDems +33.

7.10pm The third way is finished writes Neal Lawson. There's nothing in his piece to suggest that he has a better way forward. The striking thing is that no Labour/ left-wing commentator has presented a compelling way forward for Labour.

7.03pm: Eastleigh is now a Tory-free zone.  Jonathan Isaby has more.  Despite last night LibDem held seats aren't going to be easy to win.

6.40pm: Special congratulations to Christian Barber, 18, who won the Newchapel seat from Labour in Newcastle-under-Lyme. He is an A2-Level student studying at Newcastle-under-Lyme College.

5.02pm: PoliticsHome Insiders have delivered their verdict on yesterday's results: "A big majority of the panel (seventy eight per cent) now think that the Tories will be the biggest party in the next parliament.    Fifty two per cent (up from thirty one per cent when we asked the question last week) think the next election will produce a slim Conservative majority."  More here.

5pm: Iain Dale has published some very encouraging interim results from Crewe - encouraging for the imminent by-election.

• Cons 31.15%
• Labour 31.8%
• LD 18.70%
• Others: 18.35%

Later today we'll be publishing information on how you can get involved in this campaign.

4.41pm: Received this email from a very happy Tory: "In Co.Durham we won 10 seats on the new Unitary Auhority. Considering this is Labour's supposed heartlands, and that we took SIX seats from them across the County, it's very very good news indeed. We also had a 20 year old female Conservative win in Willington ward, which was in 2005 (the last time the seat was elected) one of Labour's Top Five safest seats. Becky Brunskill ran a fantastic campaign that even led to the Labour candidate Brian Myers condemning Gordon Brown and openly calling for him to quit in an interview with the local newspaper.  In Durham we also won: Chester North & East, Chester South, Pelton, Barnard Castle West (2 members), Barnard Castle East (2 Members) and seats in Teesdale and Sedgefield (Blair's old constituency). All of the Labour seats in Co.Durham are over 12000 majorities so it's an excllent result."

4.34pm: ConHome has had 61,389 hits so far today.  A record and still seven-and-a-half more hours to go.

4.26pm: Adam Boulton suggesting we may not have official result until 10.30pm.

4.26pm: Labour now down 387 seats.

4.08pm: We've been texted approximate, unofficial interims from the London count...

• Ealing & Hill - 48% counted, Boris about 50% Ken about 35%
• West Central - 42% counted, Boris about 60% Ken about 30%
• South West - 44% counted, Boris about 50% Ken about 35%
• Lambeth & Southwark - 46% counted, Boris about 30% Ken about 50%
• Croydon & Sutton - 43% counted, Boris about 50% Ken about 30%
• Merton & Wandsworth - 40% counted, Boris about 50% Ken about 35%

This amounts to just under a 12.5% swing.

4.05pm: Gordon Brown is no longer in Time Magazine's list of the world's most influential people....but Tony Blair is!

3.57pm: TORIES CLAIM VICTORY FOR BORIS JOHNSON (TIMES)

3.43pm: As noted earlier, the BBC's election night coverage was a joke.  Mike Smithson has started a thread on the insult to viewers' intelligence.  On a vote within our chatroom ConHome readers preferred Sky coverage to BBC coverage by 49% to 30%.

3.38pm: Danny Finkelstein saying Boris won't quite get in on first preferences but almost.

3.35pm: All these ministers would lose their seats if last night's elections were repeated at the General: Ed Balls, Jacqui Smith, James Purnell, John Hutton, Caroline Flint, Ruth Kelly, John Denham

3.26pm: Nice line from Iain Dale's blog: "A plane has been spotted at RAF Northolt ready and waiting to take Ken Livingstone into exile in Venezuela." :-)

3.22pm: Alan Duncan has told Sky that the "supremacy" of Ken Livingstone over London is over.

3pm: Good news for the forthcoming Crewe by-election according to Iain Lindley in the comments: "Big news from Crewe & Nantwich where the first unitary seats have declared.  Conservatives have won 2 seats in Crewe West and Labour 1. Labour polled 53% and the Conservative candidate 29% at the last County Council election."

2.54pm: Three Line Whip: "Iain Dale is suggesting that Boris's amiable father Stanley would be ideally placed to stand as the Tory candidate in the by-election - and the man himself does nothing to suppress the idea."  It's a nice idea but we understand that CCHQ are pretty determined to have a local candidate.

2.14pm: Labour down by 300 seats now.  Boulton says "looking comfortable" for Boris:

1.45pm: Tory council gains now over 200.  Expectation of final gains now close to 270.  Screen capture below of David Cameron in Bury - speaking beneath a statue of Sir Robert Peel.  This was DC's third stop of the day.  He's already been in Wales and Nuneaton.  Lots of regional media.

1.25pm: A source at the London Evening Standard has just emailed us to say it's looking "very, very good" for Boris.

1.12pm: Yet more bad news for Brown: David Pitt-Watson has resigned as Labour general secretary, or rather he told NEC officers this morning that he won't be taking up his appointment.

1.07pm: Tories gain Solihull from NOC. Maggie Throup will be very pleased!

12.57pm: Tories gain Rossendale.

12.52pm: "Listen to the banalities from ministers today and you can see how they are struggling to cope with the tide that is sweeping over them." - Steve Richards

12.46pm: Tories hold Wokingham, Waveney, Worthing and Bassetlaw. ToryRadio's Jonathan Sheppard will be pleased about the last one!

12.41pm: LibDems have gained Sheffield.

12.40pm: Comment Central is keeping track of all the speculation and have this important observation of their own: "Senior sources inside Conservative HQ say privately that the party believe that Boris will win by between 4 and 8 per cent after second preferences."

12.38pm:   Bookmakers Paddy Power are already paying out to those who backed Boris.  We've gained one seat two seats in Gloucester.

12.28pm: We paid our own tribute to Eric Pickles last night (within this post), calling him the Master of Ceremonies.  Benedict Brogan has done the same this morning, calling him "the new Tory pin-up boy".  This is the telling quote within Ben's blog: "In 1995 apparently, when the Tories were wiped out in the locals, Mr Pickles spent the weekend telephoning every defeated council leader to apologise."  Good for Eric.

12.22pm: Brian Paddick is apparently considering becoming an MP.  We hope he's checked that his mum's approved.

12.14pm: Wolverhampton goes to NOC following eight Tory gains. Looks like we were right about Reading going to NOC, despite Salter's talk of "a fantastic result" in which "we held back the Tory tide".

12.13pm: We're hearing that a London Elects official in Tower Hamlets was fired on the spot for urging people to vote for Livingstone.

12.03pm: Naughty Tony. Front page of Evening Standard has a smiling photo of Tony Blair from a party in Mayfair last night:

12.01am: West Brom blog reporting Labour meltdown in Wolverhampton.

11.58am: We're hearing that Reading is Lab 20, Con 18, LD 8 after a recount...

11.57am: We're hearing Purbeck has been lost to NOC, with Cons and LDs on 11 each

11.55am: Ipswich borough council: Labour gain 2 seats from Conservative, one from Liberal Democrat. New council: Lab 21, Con 19, Lib Dem 8. NOC

11.49am: BBC reporting Con Gain in Redditch.

11.42am: Cameron to go to visit Bury after Nuneaton.

11.30am: INTERACTIVE CHATROOM RESUMED

11.27am: We're hearing that Reading is going to NOC although Martin Salter MP is saying it's a Lab Hold on Sky...

11.23am: It looks like we've made gains in Reading but not enough.  One of the few disappointments of the night.

11.20am: Sky is saying Boris has built up a healthy lead in the counting of first 10% of first preference votes.  Sky is talking about a victory for Boris on second preferences by 4% to 6%.

11.17am: Iain Dale is reporting that we've won North Tyneside.  What with gains in Bury and Sunderland that's very good news for 'Campaign North'. 

11.11am: Screen capture from Sky...

11.07am: Our new 21 year-old councillor in Hendon's Hale ward.

10.55am: Another by-election win in Hammersmith.  Seat retained with much healthier majority.  Paul Bristow has more.

10.36am: Two by-election results: Scottish Tory Boy reports we held a seat in Dumfries.  'Hendon insider' has commented we have won a by-election up there in north London (UNCONFIRMED).  Let's hope that that's the first of lots of good news from London.

10.06am: David Cameron is interviewed on BBC News 24 below.  Nick Bourne, leader of the Conservatives on the Cardiff Assembly, is pictured on the right.  The Tory leader was in the Vale of Glamorgan to celebrate Tories taking control of the council.

9.54am: Chirpy Hazel Blears has just been on Sky News, surely the last person Labour should have on if they want to appear realistic and contrite. That said, even she is struggling to grin at these results.

9.47am: Professor John Curtice wrote this yesterday: "There will be a nagging worry in [Cameron's] mind as the polls close. Will his party do well enough to suggest that it really looks capable of deposing Labour from power? He cannot really be sure of achieving that." He can now.

9.38am: BBC's Carole Walker says Downing Street fears a Boris win resulting from high turnout in the suburbs.

9.33am: Tories win Vale of Glamorgan.

9.29am: From the PoliticsHome media transcript service this morning - Caroline Spelman says country lost confidence in Brown, Eric Pickles expresses gratitude for Cameron's leadership and David Cameron talks of the elections being a big moment for the party.

9.26am: Since we stopped blogging the Tories have won Basingstoke from NOC, and held Monmouthshire.

First time following the results? See liveblogs One and Two. We'll reopen the chatroom feature ahead of the last flurry of local election results at noon.

Good morning round-up

Morning everyone!  After a few hours' sleep here's a review of the big picture:

• If last night's results were repeated across the country in a General Election the Conservatives would have a majority of 138.  That's the BBC's projection so it must be true.  Speaking to Sky, David Cameron described the results as a "big moment" for the Conservatives.
• The Tories may gain more than 250 seats - real champagne territory according to the PoliticsHome insiders' poll.
• Not a good night for Nick Clegg.  On projected share of national vote he did less well than Ming.
• Not a good night for the BBC either.  Jeremy Vine's graphics were childish.  We can only agree with Iain Dale: "A big black mark has to go to much of the Jeremy Vine sections of the progamme. The reaction from all sides has been extremely negative. I thought the Stalin/Mr Bean thing was appalling and if I were a Labour spin doctor I would be hopping mad. Luckily I am not!"  One senior Tory shouted at the TV last night: "This is treating the audience like fools... It's not public service broadcasting."
• At 9.59pm we called London for Boris.  It was a big call but others have steadily come to agree with us.  This is Nick Robinson at 4.50am: "If - as insiders on both sides now expect - Boris Johnson is elected mayor of London later today David Cameron will be able to herald his party's most successful night since John Major's general election victory in 1992."  PoliticalBetting reports that when pressed on the Mayoral race Harriet Harman said that she “did not expect the London result to be any different to the rest of the country.”
• If you didn't see our behind-the-scenes photographs of last night at CCHQ, please click here. CCHQ's fast results email service was recognised as extremely efficient. Ben Brogan, Peter Hoskin and The Times' Sam Coates have all paid tribute to the Tory operation.
• And, for a little fun, watch Geoff Hoon encounter hearing problems as David Dimbleby presses him on the scale of Labour's trouncing.

Behind-the-scenes at CCHQ on '44% night'

Tim Montgomerie was in CCHQ for election night.  Here are some behind-the-scenes images from the ConservativeHome camera:

ABOVE: 'The Pod' is the heart of the CCHQ war room.  Communications chief Andy Coulson listens to Eric Pickles' latest report from the frontline.  Tim Chatwin sits between them.

Local elections live blogging: Phase Two

3.34am: Conservatives lose Coventry to NOC.  One seat lost.

3.10am: Quote of the night goes to Fraser Nelson:

By this time tomorrow Gordon Brown will find himself living in a LibDem Scottish constituency, in a country ruled by the SNP and working in a city run by the Conservatives.

2.55am: Rapidly uploaded Webcameron video of David Cameron and George Osborne...

2.45am: Liverpool swings breakdown: Yewtree +115%, Woolton +70%, Cressington +67%, West Derby +30% Allerton +25%. All target seats there fought by under-30s.

2.15am: IT'S TURNING OUT TO BE A REALLY BAD NIGHT FOR THE LIBDEMS: They've lost control of Liverpool.  A Conservative spokesman said: “This means that Nick Clegg is actually doing worse than Ming Campbell, who was ousted for being an electoral liability.”

1.59am: Two 18yos elected in Southampton.  Six under-30s in Runnymede; Dan Hamilton, Marisa Heath, Jack Perschke, Chris Chapman, Joe Wilson and Becky Denby.

1.50am: David Cameron is heading home to bed.  He'll be visiting - as usual - the big gains of the night tomorrow.

1.43am: BBC PROJECTED NATIONAL SHARES:

• Labour 24% (2% below previous low)
• Tories 44%
• LibDems 25%

HUGE CHEER GOES UP INSIDE CCHQ

1.41am: Tories gain two seats in Cardiff.

1.32am: Conservatives are predicting this will be Labour’s worst vote share since records began in 1973.

1.19am: CONSERVATIVES GAIN BURY

1.18am: Two more Tory gains in Plymouth bringing total to +6

1.15am: Conservatives gain Maidstone.

1.07am: INSIDE TORY SOURCES ARE TELLING CONHOME THAT THE PARTY WILL GET 44%

1.05am: Latest BBC projection.  Compared to 2004: Labour -2, Conservatives +7, LibDem -3

1.02am: Welfare Secretary James Purnell would lose his seat based on tonight's results in Tameside

1.01am: Rallings & Thrasher said noone could win Southampton this year and the Conservatives have!

12.52am: Ben Brogan saying Labour expect to fall below 25%.

12.44am: FIVE CONSERVATIVE GAINS IN BIRMINGHAM

12.43am: TORIES GAIN SOUTHAMPTON

12.42am: Four gains in Wigan

12.34am: Eight gains for Tories in Southampton.

12.32am: Eleven years ago... Labour readers might take some comfort from this 'On This Day' trip down memory lane.

12.28am: First of three gains we need in Bury for control is in the bag - Radcliffe North.  LibDem AND Labour leaders in Southampton have been ousted.

12.24am: Conservatives win control of Nuneaton & Bedworth from Labour and Elmbridge from NOC

12.19am: TORIES NOW PREDICTING MORE THAN 200 GAINS

12.18am: Tories make two gains in Exeter. Labour move from largest to third party.

12.15am: Tories gain West Lindsey from LibDems.  It's looking like a bad night for Nick Clegg.

12.14am: At least four Tory gains in Plymouth.

12.08am: ERIC PICKLES HAS JUST TOLD CONHOME THAT THE TORIES WILL MAKE "SUBSTANTIAL" GAINS IN NORTH OF ENGLAND

12.06am: BNP gain seat from Labour in Nuneaton.

12.01am: 10% swing to Tories in Bolton.  Five gains in Sunderland.

Midnight: On basis of results so far BBC is saying Tories up 6% compared to last elections.  Labour down 3% and LibDems down 4%.  BUT THESE ARE EARLY PROJECTIONS.

11.48pm: Tories gain five new seats in Harlow - winning control of council.  Harlow Tories had one councillor in 1998 and 18 seats now.  We credit Samuel Coates' canvassing earlier today, of course!  Robert Halfon, our PPC, pictured below from earlier...

11.47pm: Dan Hannan MEP is also live blogging.

11.43pm: "You must have balls of steel".  That's what a senior CCHQ staffer has just said to us re our calling it for Boris.  We mention it to make it clear that the 9.59pm post was our call - not the Conservative Party's.

11.40pm: ConservativeHome has just passed 45,000 hits for the day.  Best ever.

11.38pm:  Two Conservative make seat gains in DC's constituency of Witney. Conservatives win wards of Oystermouth and of Fairwood in Swansea

11.36pm: Tories gain seat in Sunderland - moving from third to first.

11.28pm: Alex Bentley, LibDem Dep Ldr of Portsmouth looses to 25 year old Conservative woman

11.16pm: David Cameron has arrived at CCHQ!

11.10pm: And now for some bad news... the BNP are reportedly doing well in Thurrock

11.07pm: Things are looking very good in Bury.

10.52pm: If you're going to a count we'd appreciate it if you could text our special results mobile on 07855 361 681 or email tim@conservativehome.com from your phone when the results are announced.

10.33pm: Adam Boulton announces on Sky News that we have called it for Boris. James Purnell says turnout was high. William Hague is understandably eager to make the distinction clear between ConservativeHome and the Party.

10.30pm: Our commenters' average prediction of Conservative gains is 182.

10.25pm: Now polling stations have closed we've set up a different post to follow the results as they come in. This will be our place of record, the interactive chatroom will be the best place for your own comments and revelations. Samuel Coates will also be blogging within that liveblog. Click here for our liveblog that ran from noon.

How many council seats will the Conservatives win tonight?

(Or lose?). No prize, just for fun.

Tie-breaker question: How many council seats will Labour win/ lose?

We'll average your predictions - as we've done in previous years - to make a 10pm 'wisdom of the crowds' prediction.

Local elections, live blogging 1

8.41pm: Ten of the verbatims that we received in response to our monthly survey asking for observations about the elections:

1. "We have plenty of candidates. It was not difficult to get people tostand"
2. "I'm in Islington London and have only heard from the Lib Dems for GLA - and Boris!"
3. "Won't make any difference who wins. Tory Councillors are Trots around here. Council Tax will keep going up."
4. "We have Boris standing for Mayor. He likes women. We're hunting Paddick. He likes men. And we're hunting Livingstone. He likes mad people from South America."
5. "We are endeavouring to win Reading back from Labour who have had 'control' for 25 years.Their Labour MP,(Salter) is a duplicitous character and has demonstrated unreliability several times. I have written about his failings regularly in the local Press and had much support for exposing him and his coterie of useless Labour Councillors. Our candidate is an excellent chap who has been regularly working hard and last weekend there were 40 'helpers' doing canvassing and delivering leaflets."
6. "Lots of people saying voting Conservative for first time in their life."
7. "WE are attacking Labour Heartland of Crewe and hope to take at least one of the four seats off them. Nantwich is in the hands of Independents who are just old labour masquerading as Independents."
8. "In the Derby City election we have had the help of the Sikh population for the first time following several defections from Labour to us including a prominent Cabinet member and another councillor."
9. "In Worcester City the BNP are fielding more candidates than the Lib Dems!"
10. "Here in Gibraltar we have a whole different election cycle and no local elections. I'm helping some UK local candidates by phoning voters and also Boris the same way but can't obviously pound pavements. This is the third election where I have been really proactive on blogs and opinion-influencing websites and I think that is a big way to make a difference. It will become bigger."

Will add more such comments later.

8.13pm: Stop press!! Ken Livingstone was a young Conservative!!! Enough exclamation marks.  Hurry up Harry has the story.

7.01pm: How low did Ken Livingstone's supporters go?  That'll be one of the questions we'll need to ask after all this is over.  Look at this extract from a leaflet sent out by the 'British Muslim Initiative':
In case you can't read it, it states:

"What if you don't go out and vote for Ken?

The BNP urged its supporters to cast a second preference vote for Boris Johnson.  If the BNP or other right wing candidates get elected, they would generate a climate of fear and hatred, threatening the city's community cohesion."

Really low stuff.  Here is a pdf of the leaflet put out by Team Boris to win Muslim voters for Boris.

6.34pm: Why rely on one expert when you can have one hundred?  Further to our 3.35pm note, PoliticsHome has now posted the full expectations for tonight's results - as stated by 100 Westminster insiders.  In summary:

> The Tories will have a champagne evening if Boris wins the Mayoralty, we gain 100 to 200 council seats and we achieve a 42% national share of the vote.

5.30pm: BBC reporting cases in London of polling station staff apparently inadvertently invalidating ballot papers

4.37pm: This was Trafalgar Square at just before 3pm today:

The Square was full of communist groups celebrating May Day.

4.19pm: OK! magazine's coverage of the local elections.

3.45pm: These photos show how Labour in Harlow (where Samuel has been campaigning today) is in the past in every way: On the left is a photo of six or seven people in Labour HQ using the old fashioned method of taking telling slips, crossing out pieces of paper, ripping off slips etc. On the right (and down the corridor) is Peter Ould on his Blue-Chipped laptop doing about ten times the work.

3.44pm: Wat Tyler and Mrs T voted in Surrey and in London.

3.35pm: Nice graphic on what the parties need to achieve - it comes from Martin Bright's latest column for the New Statesman.  The key thresholds for the party (in terms of council seats) are: Tories must gain at least 100 seats to have a good night; Labour shouldn't lose seats (unlikely) and the LibDems need 100 gains (which isn't going to happen). Click on the graphic to double its size:

The graphic represents the collective wisdom of the Westminster insiders who are polled on a daily basis by PoliticsHome.com.  Tune in to the site tonight.  Its best product will be rush transcripts of what key pundits and politicians are saying on the TV and radio tonight.

3.13pm: Just noticed this on UK Polling Report re voting intentions for the Greater London Assembly:

"Voting intention in the assembly stands at CON 40%, LAB 33%, LDEM 14%. Others include the Greens on 4%, BNP on 3%, UKIP 2%, Christian Choice 1%, Left List 1%, Respect 1%, Abolish the Congestion Charge 1%."

Guido, Iain Dale (who is also live blogging already) and, of course, YouGov are predicting a Boris win.  ConservativeHome joins that chorus.  Despite the numbers above we also expect the BNP to get a seat on the GLA.  We'll soon know...

2.15pm: Ryan Robson has written a short piece for the LondonMayor section about campaigning for Boris.

12.35pm: When can you expect local council results?  Here's a rough guide:

• By midnight or soon afterwards results should be in from: Vale of Glamorgan, Brentwood, Broxbourne, Eastleigh, Havant, Kingston upon Hull, Lincoln, Nuneaton & Bedworth, Peterborough, South Tyneside, Tameside, Tamworth, West Lindsey and Worcester City.
• Half an hour later: Barnsley, Bolton, Carlisle City, Great Yarmouth, Hart, Knowsley, Mole Valley, Monmouthshire, Sefton, Southend, Swindon, Tunbridge Wells and Wirral.
• Fifty or so more results by 2am.

12.11pm: YouGov's final poll has just been published and has Boris Johnson ahead by 6% on second preferences.

YouGov and the London Evening Standard will want a Boris win almost as much as Boris himself.  Both will have their standing enhanced if Livingstone is ousted.

11:49am: Let's begin with a message from David Cameron, on why we should vote Conservative:

How well will the BNP do in May's elections?

In today's Times Tim Hames warns of "shock" BNP victories in May's elections.  He points to recent BNP successes in local by-elections and also the fact that the far-right party needs just 6% or so to win a seat on the Greater London Assembly.  The BNP scored just under 5% in the last round of GLA elections and the decline of UKIP - which has considerable voter overlap with the BNP - may lift them above that crucial threshold.

There are at least three important qualifications that need to be added to Tim Hames' important article:

1. The BNP, not unlike the LibDems, is very good at pouring activists into by-elections. BNP activists will travel hundreds of miles in the service of their cause.  It is much harder for the BNP to do well when elections are being fought all across the country.
2. The BNP promised a breakthrough in last year's local elections but gained just one seat (net).  They also promised 1,000 candidates and only fielded 700.  To put that one gain into context, the Greens gained 25 seats net last year.
3. On paper the possibility of the BNP winning a GLA seat in London looks likely but it might be avoided if the Boris V Johnson race produces a high turnout.  If Boris can energise voters across Zones 4 to 6 and Ken Livingstone motivates his rainbow coalition of supporters, turnout might be sufficiently high to prevent London electing a BNP Assembly Member.  We can only hope.

Tories have successfully beaten off BNP challenges - partly by stressing issues like the BNP's impact on house prices - but Charles Walker MP has set out a broader strategy in a paper for Cornerstone.

Local Hero of the Year: Stephen Greenhalgh

The Leader of Hammersmith & Fulham Council, Stephen Greenhalgh, has won a vote of thousands of Conservatives on Local Hero of Year 07/08.

His colleague Mark Loveday who was one of the people to nominate Stephen:

• After taking control of Hammersmith last year for the first time in a generation, the local Conservatives immediately put Conservative principles into practice.
• A 3% Council Tax cut in the first year (the biggest in the country by far) and a stated intention to cut again next year. On ConHome people discuss the theory of lifting the burden of taxation - in Hammersmith this is already happening.
• Service standards improved from a three star to a maximum four star official rating.
• Cracking down on crime with the only New York-style 24 hour Council funded police teams in the UK in our town centres.

Hammersmith Conservatives managed to cut Council Tax by another 3% this year whilst retaining good quality service provision, as their celebratory YouTube video showed!

The other two people shortlisted for this award were Cllr Peter Golds OBE for his service to the Conservative Party in London, and Zac Goldsmith for his referendum campaign against a Sainsburys superstore.

* More than 8000 people voted on the ConservativeHome Movement Awards. The previous award announced was Parliamentarian of the Year, which went to Michael Fallon.

Promising nationally, acting locally now

One of the great successes of our time in Opposition (at Westminster) has been the resurgence of Conservatives at a local level.  I carried out a random survey of a few frontbenchers last week and there is very uneven contact between our Westminster team and our local councillors.

What about a few major public conferences where local and national Conservatives come together to discuss housing, social justice and the environment?  The Conservatives in local government have, I'm sure, much to teach the Westminster leadership and by holding these gatherings the national leadership can communicate that our interest in more affordable housing, a better relationship with the voluntary sector and practical environmentalism runs throughout the whole party.

Idea 4: Restore the standing of the shadow cabinet and other frontbenchers

Local government blog launches on 5th November... can you help?

ConservativeHome has two main objectives.  First, we aim to agitate for the causes set out in our manifesto - including 'the politics of and' and respect for grassroots opinions.  Second, we aim to provide more coverage of the Conservative Party than any other newspaper or website.

As part of the commitment to our second core aim - comprehensiveness - we recently launched our Parliament blog.  It's much less popular than the rest of the site - currently receiving an average of just over 600 visits a day - but we're going to persevere with it until at least the new year in the hope that its audience will steadily grow.  There are certainly great treasures in many parliamentary debates that go completely unnoticed.

Our next project is a blog dedicated to local government.  We're looking to recruit local councillors from across the country - district councillors, county councillors, Cabinet members etc - who will be willing to contribute short essays that will be of interest to readers from around the country.  The short essays could be about the impact of central government on local councils, interesting campaigning ideas, thoughts on localism.  Our aim is for this new section to become essential reading for Conservatives interested in local government and in wider ideas of localism.

Earlier today I spoke at a seminar for local councillors with Theresa Villiers MP and Dan Hannan MEP.  Dan noted that more or less every successful conservative party in the western world champions localism and aims to protect local traditions and independence.  Those aims must increasingly be the British Tories' aims, too.

One of the great successes of our time in Opposition at Westminster has been the renaissance of Conservatives in local government.  The 'local Conservatism' blog aims to build on that renaissance.

We've recruited about a dozen councillors so far as contributors.  We're still looking for a few more.  You need no technical expertise.  If you can use email that's enough!  Send us your thoughts once a fortnight or so and we'll post them.  Please email us now if you'd like to join our team.

New Tory assertiveness and local by-election results may sow new seeds of doubt in Brown's mind

Last night's by-election results may produce further ammunition to those Labour 'greybeards' who are urging Gordon Brown to be cautious about an autumn General Election.  We listed other risk factors on Monday.

On the basis of yesterday's results the Conservatives would have a 6.2% lead over Labour -  a very different picture to the national opinion polls which actually suggest a  5.8% Labour lead (according to ConservativeHome's Poll of Polls).

The Conservatives won a seat from Labour on Sunderland council with a 3.7% swing.  In a Kent County Council by-election there was a 5.5% swing to the Conservatives although Labour held a seat on Dover District Council.

Perhaps the most encouraging result came in Cheshire.  A 6.5% swing from Labour to the Conservatives ensured that Eleanor Johnson was elected and that the County remains in Tory control.  The Gowy seat includes three important polling districts in the target Tory seat of Chester; Christleton, Littleton and Guilden Sutton.

More encouraging for me is the main story on the front page of The Telegraph: David Cameron orders shift to core Tory values.

An interview with George Osborne indicates that the party will ditch large parts of the Gummer-Goldsmith report.  There'll be no charges for supermarket parking.  No taxes on a second short annual flight.  There may even be a promise to reform inheritance tax.

I'm also expecting stronger statements on immigration.  Shadow Immigration Damian Green was on the Today programme this morning and the front page of The Mail shouts: Two million more migrants in just a decade.  Mr Green is quoted in that story saying: "This rips apart the Government's previous complacent assumptions about net immigration."  I hope we'll also see Tory reluctance to talk about immigration ripped up in Blackpool, too.

A ConservativeHome poll of Tory members - due to be published tomorrow - will spell out what the grassroots would like the leadership to do next.

11am: Caroline Spelman comments: "“This set of results is very encouraging and shows that throughout the country more and more people are turning away from Labour and towards the Conservatives. Labour should be very worried that in a week when Gordon Brown has dominated the news, the Conservatives have made a crucial gain from Labour in the North and achieved a swing in three marginal seats which would mean three strong Conservative gains in a general election. After a week in which Labour hasn’t been out of the news there have been swings to the Conservatives from North to South. People want change and they want to fix our broken society. After ten years of Labour it is clear that Gordon Brown cannot be the change the country needs.”

Tories in Hampshire lead the way in thanking our troops

Last Saturday we noted General Sir Richard Dannatt's call for society to do more to honour Britain's servicemen.  You can agree or disagree with the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan but all of Britain should be able to unite in saluting the dedication and bravery of our troops.

Shadow defence minister Gerald Howarth MP has just been on Sky News to talk about an initiative by Conservative-controlled Rushmoor Borough Council.  Mr Howarth and Cllr Peter Moyle, Council leader, have arranged for five banners to be put up across Aldershot to welcome home the Grenadier Guards.  One of the banners adorns the A325 between Aldershot and Farnborough.  Interviewed on Sky, Mr Howarth said more councils should do the same and he encouraged private businesses like Alton Towers to offer discounts or special events for our servicemen and their families.

Heseltine's plan for a renaissance in city governance

The hitherto low-key Cities Taskforce chaired by Lord Heseltine has revealed it is going in a very localist direction, recommending the party builds on Labour's introduction of directly-elected mayors and town hall cabinets by establishing American-style mayors in all cities (something he advocated after resigning in the 80s). They would have power over government services such as transport, the emergency services and welfare.

In what they've dubbed a transfer of power from "quangocrats to democrats", the mayors would be accountable to local councillors and voters. Funding for "government puppets" like RDAs and LSCs would be diverted to city government. One of the main reasons for having a mayor's office is that it can pull together the multitude of different regeneration funding streams. Heseltine said:

"These radical proposals build on the hard experience of the 1980s and 90s and meet many of the criticisms made of present government policy by their own advisors. I hope they will commend themselves to a future Conservative government. I believe they could herald a broad renaissance on English city governance.

10am update: The report can be downloaded here. It also includes the idea of giving city governments the power and their own credit rating to issue bonds and borrow on the open market.

Deputy Editor

Smoking Police?

The Conservative Party says this morning that Government guidance to local authorities will create a new layer of smoking inspectors and risk turning employers into "secret police" when the smoking ban comes into effect on July 1st. The guidance is for local authorities who are responsible for enforcing the ban, levying fines and collecting (and keeping) the revenue and says:

• Bosses to act as smoking spies: Businesses are to be instructed to implement “management controls” of keeping written records of any person smoking. A template Smoking Incident Form is provided for firms to fill out, and firms are to be told to pass the detailed records of incidents to town halls “to inform them of the occurrence”.
• Fines by town hall inspectors: These Smoking Incident Forms will provide sufficient evidence for town halls to levy £50 fines on anyone who smokes. If any individual fails to provide assistance or information to the state inspectors when requested, they in turn can be fined £1,000.
• Snoopers’ charter: The guidance explicitly authorises the use of uncover and “intrusive” surveillance – including the use of snooping devices like hidden cameras. It asserts that the Human Rights Act and Regulation of Investigatory Powers Act provide no rights against the snooping.
• Inspectors’ power of entry: The legislation gives town hall inspectors forcible rights of entry into any premises where the public may be. The guidance encourages “proactive inspections”, “to generate lists from their premises database”, and to particularly target small and medium firms.
• ‘Stasi State’ raids by police: Town halls are told to draw up an “enforcement protocol”, and get local police officers to assist in “targeting individuals as part of a pre-arranged programmed activity”. Yet this will inevitably displace the police from tackle violent crime, car crime and burglary.

Eric Pickles, the Shadow Local Government Minister, says:

“Experience from abroad shows that smoking bans are largely self-enforcing. Yet rather than relying on common sense and peer pressure, I am concerned that Labour Ministers are giving the go-ahead to a snoopers’ charter of heavy-handed surveillance and zealous inspections to impose the smoking ban on England. This is a municipal sledgehammer to crack a nut. 

"Step by step, Labour Ministers are introducing a Stasi State – giving ever stronger powers for state officials to spy and enter private property, and now, even asking bosses to act as secret police.

“Councils are under such intense financial pressures due to fiddled funding and new burdens, that I fear that a town hall Taliban could be tempted to use the easy target of a smoking ban as a cash cow. Minsters would be better to encourage councils to target their limited resources on serious risks to public welfare like under-age drinking and commercial fly-tipping.“

K&C Tories join wider Conservative campaigning to save small shops

This morning's Telegraph reports that Conservative-controlled Kensington and Chelsea council will soon launch a campaign to protect its small shops.

The council will welcome a report today that recommends:

• A levy on large retail chains that will be used to support local, independent retailers;
• Restrictions on supermarkets' ability to sell fresh fish or meat if they are close to an independent butcher or fishmonger;
• New planning laws that stop local shops being converted into coffee shops like Starbucks.

London's Evening Standard has been running a Save our Small Shops campaign amidst growing concerns at the impact that Tesco Metro and other supermarket chains are having on corner shops.  David Cameron has backed that campaign, calling independent shops "the lifeblood of a local community".  Zac Goldsmith, Tory candidate in Richmond Park, has launched his own effort to stop a Sainsbury's opening in Barnes by organising a local referendum.

Did the Sedgefield candidate really get no votes?

One of the most quoted ane