ConservativeHome's ToryDiary

Bullseye!

We've just read THE best indictment of the Labour years.

The Centre for Policy Studies is relaunching its pamphlets this week with a new bullesye-style logo and an old-fashioned colour style that reminds us of those great Penguin paperbacks.

The first in the new series of pamphlets is written by Lord (Maurice) Saatchi.  Written in the style of a prosecuting barrister it makes the case that Labour has acted as the 'Enemy of the People' over the last ten years:

"The People charge New Labour on seven Counts:

• Conspiracy to make citizens dependent on the State.
• Conspiracy to force citizens to claim benefits to pay higher taxes.
• Incitement of poor people to pay more tax than rich people.
• Solicitation of multiple tax revenues by stealth.
• Attempt to obstruct the right of citizens to independence.
• Conspiracy to mesmerize and anaesthetise citizens.
• Attempt to conceal their true status as an enemy of the people.

On all Counts, the defendants are found: Guilty."

It will formally be published on Wednesday - when we'll publish key extracts.  You'll be able to get a copy from the CPS website then.  You won't be disappointed.

Philip Dunne MP reveals Labour's latest insult to rural Britain

Research for the Centre for Policy Studies by Conservative MP Philip Dunne has revealed how Gordon Brown has used his control of the nation's purse strings to tilt the growth of funding towards urban Britain - much of it Labour's heartlands.

Commenting to The Telegraph, Mr Dunne said:

"Gordon Brown has a simple strategy to win the next election: to bribe his areas of traditional strength with money pinched from Tory-voting shires. Central government grants of all kinds to councils and other public bodies have increased far faster in cities and big towns than they have in country area.  We have witnessed a deliberate policy of switching taxpayers' money from the country to the city. It has been done in secret, with no announcement, no public debate, no explanation and no justification."

The leader-writers at The Telegraph agree that politics explains the change:

"Country people have made the mistake of refusing to return Labour councils. Indeed, in the southern counties, Labour has virtually disappeared as a political force - an eviction far more dramatic, though less remarked, than the paucity of Tories in Liverpool and Manchester.  Put bluntly, spending more in an area makes its inhabitants likelier to look to the state for their livelihood, which in turn makes them likelier to vote for the high-tax party."

The rural-to-urban drift of funding - previously highlighted by Owen Paterson MP - is only one manifestation of Gordon Brown's use of the highest and stealthiest tax burden in British history to buy votes.

There is the subsidy of Scotland and Wales and the transfer of money from south to north generally.  The massive growth in public sector employment and the quangocracy.   And, of course, the subsidy of the trade unions in return for them paying 90%+ of the Labour Party's bills.

Tories promise "policy striptease" as Brown bores on

Gordon Brown was on Andrew Marr and Adam Boulton this morning.

It's not clear why Gordon Brown bothered.  He offered no new message - just the usual tired talk of listening and facing up to long-term challenges.  Mr Brown told Adam Boulton (who pressed the PM much harder than the deferential Marr)  that he wouldn't hold a 'put up or shut up' leadership challenge to his critics, as John Major did in 1995.

Thursday had been a referendum on Labour, Mr Brown said, but the next election would be a choice between Labour and the Conservatives.  He said that he "relished" the prospect of beating David Cameron at the next General Election.

If Brown bored the Conservatives plan to excite, says a leader in The Sunday Times.  The leader-writers say that the Conservatives "plan a slow striptease over the next two years to unveil the policies that will form the basis of their manifesto."

ConservativeHome understands that this "striptease" aims to address the "enthusiasm challenge" and will include a heavy emphasis on measures to tackle crime and school failure.  The social justice agenda is also going to be 'bigged up' as the party aims to build on lower income voters' loss of faith in Labour after the 10p fiasco.

And let's not forget the LibDems.  Professor John Curtice in The Sunday Telegraph notes that Thursday was also poor for them (our emphasis):

"Outside London the Liberal Democrat vote slipped for the fourth year in a row. With 25 per cent of the equivalent national vote, the party recorded its weakest local election performance for a decade.  Fortunately for Nick Clegg, his party's slide was masked by a modest net gain of 31 seats and Labour's even more dismal performance. But in London, where there was no such camouflage, the party's vote was down on 2004 by between five and six points in both the mayoral race and the assembly contests."

It is very significant that voters are deciding that a vote for the Conservatives, in this mid-term moment, is the best way to most punish Labour.  We now need to make sure that - come the General Election - voters understand that a vote for the Conservatives is the only sure way of ending Labour rule.

3pm video: Sky's 18 minute interview with Gordon Brown

Darling: We're doomed if we don't sharpen our act

If you haven't seen Headcases' portrayal of Alistair Darling watch it here.  The Chancellor is seen running around the greyed out Gordon Brown shouting "we're doomed".

The real Mr Darling is in China and has just said this to Reuters:

"We have got to make sure that in other areas we sharpen ourselves up, that we have a clear message of what we are about."

George Osborne has leapt on the remarks as an "unprecedented attack" on Gordon Brown's government:

“Even Gordon Brown never criticised Tony Blair in public.  What started as anonymous briefings from backbenchers has now burst into the open with a public attack on Gordon Brown from the second most important person in the government. If the government is fighting itself, how can it fight for Britain?”

"The last week has been more significant than the extraordinary few days last autumn when the fortunes of the two main parties changed suddenly."

The title of this post comes from Steve Richards' comment piece in The Independent.

Has British politics changed in some sustainable way in the last few days?

The ICM poll putting Labour at just 29% appears to confirm that Darling's budget has produced a significant shift towards the Conservatives.  The Tories are 8% ahead on economic competence.  Boris is 12% ahead of Livingstone.   

In his sketch of yesterday's Commons business Quentin Letts certainly senses a shift in power to the Conservatives:

"Two minutes before Messrs Darling and Brown arrived in the Chamber, complete with a couple of flunkeys but otherwise without fanfare, there had been a more noticeable entry.  The Tories' three main men, David Cameron, William Hague and George Osborne, had swept in past the Speaker's Chair towards their places on the Opposition front bench.  As soon as they strode into the House at 3.26pm there was a silence from other parts of the Tory benches.  It was the sort of hush you get from a school assembly when a powerful headmaster enters the hall.

Other Tory MPs shifted slightly away from the trio, making room for them, junior members of the pride not wanting to be too close to the big beasts.  Why should this be? Cameron, Hague and Osborne, after all, are only in opposition. But is there maybe an expectation growing at Westminster that these three will be running our affairs after the next general election?"

Let's wait and see.  Stephan Shakespeare has warned about "frothy opinion polls".  Let's see what the polls are saying in a month or so but let's also hope that they produce a dynamic effect.

Economic competence, leader image and party unity are the three parts of the iron triangle of political success.  Labour is steadily losing its reputation for economic competence.  Gordon Brown is looking shaky.  Some panicky disunity on the Labour benches in response to these polls would complete the decline.

The Tories are still to choose a big theme

This morning's Independent wonders if there might be a June 2009 "double election" - with voters asked to choose their MEPs and MPs:

"The idea was discussed in the margins of Labour's spring conference in Birmingham last weekend and has won the backing of some party officials. Although allies of Mr Brown said it was "very premature" to talk about the date, party sources said he did not want to delay polling until the last possible moment in the spring of 2010."

This is the second recent story of its kind.  Monday's FT got there first.  The key factor in Mr Brown's mind appears to be the economy.  If the economy is picking up next year he will be able to go to the country and invite voters to stick with him as the best person to steward Britain through global economic turbulence.  Brown believes that the economy will remain the decisive electoral issue and that the Tories made a strategic mistake in their first two years by emphasising social rather than economic issues.  Oliver Letwin famously wrote of a movement away from an econocentric worldview to a sociocentric worldview. 

Up until now the Tory approach has been to adopt a very similar economic policy to Labour (matching Brown, for example, on spending - an approach endorsed by Daniel Finkelstein in today's Times).  This 'reassurance, reassurance, reassurance' tactic - neutering Labour's fifteen year advantage on economic competence - will only work if the Tories give voters other potent reasons to choose them.

The last week alone has seen frenetic activity from the Tory leader:

• At last week's PMQs he launched his anti-politics drive - followed up by a big speech on Saturday that listed what he would do to restore trust in politics.  27 of the newest Tory MPs joined in with a campaign to allow failed MPs to be sacked by constituents mid-term.
• He has announced an aspiration for a third of ministers to be women.
• He has promised to equalise the size of Westminster constituencies - a major reform necessary to eliminate the system's bias against the Conservative Party.
• A major prison-building programme that will create the space for 'a rehabilitation revolution' - with prisoner governors incentivised to reduce reoffending rates.
• A Military Covenant Commission to investigate ways of improving care of servicemen, their families and veterans.
• A strong attack on 'state multiculturalism' and criticism of Labour's handling of Muslim extremism.

The announcements and initiatives are coming so fast that it is difficult to keep up with them and there is a danger that they are not producing any defining picture of what a Conservative government would look like.  Last week's £0.5m Tory advertising campaign confirmed that the Tories are still keeping their options open in terms of 'a big idea'.  The campaign included ten messages - all carefully targeted - but no overarching theme.  ConservativeHome continues to believe that crime should be the main Tory theme.  The Tory leadership, for the time-being, doesn't seem ready to choose and, to be fair, it still has time on its side.

Brown's not so big tent

Iain Martin explains the true purpose of the Labour conference in today's Telegraph:

"This week was about killing David Cameron and the Conservatives; not defeating them or inflicting a set-back but wiping them off the map. It is important that the nature of this project is properly understood. The smartest ministers know that Cameron is still the best of his Tory generation. They will not want him around much longer and sense that his party will disintegrate if they can inflict a heavy defeat quickly. Brown's building of a big tent is cleverly designed to stress that he runs a national government so all-encompassing that there is no requirement for that old-fashioned concept of a functioning opposition."

Whilst Gordon Brown was too big, too consensual to mention the Conservatives once in his hour long speech, his lieutenants have had plenty of licence to go on the attack.

Ed Balls criticised Cameron's crude, socially divisive education policy for being not back to basics but "back to privilege, back to the past", creating a world-class education not for all but "for the privileged elite". He continued to wage class warfare with his description of Boris Johnson as "a gaffe-prone, TV quiz-show clown – a Bullingdon club throwback to a bygone age". Hazel Blears continued the theme:

"The last thing a modern, diverse, international-class capital like London needs is a fogeyish, bigoted and upper-class twit for its mayor. For all Cameron's claims to localism, his is the party which abolished London's city government, starved councils of cash, and created a centralised government worthy of Napoleon. The Tories have never trusted the people, whether they were single mums, miners, or the millions on the dole, and no amount of open necked-shirts will make us forgive or forget".

Ken Livingstone also got in on the act of attacking the Conservative Party's "backward blond element" by declaring what a pleasure it was for him to deliver the "first annual Boris Johnson memorial lecture".

Mercer and Bercow explain their reasons for joining Brown's big tent

In two separate articles the two Conservative MPs who recently agreed to undertake advisory roles for Gordon Brown have explained their decisions.

In an article for the Yorkshire Post (not yet online), Mr Mercer says that the Prime Minister's decision to appoint Lord West as "directly responsible for the anti-terrorism elements of our security" was a confirmation of his long-held belief that some higher recognition of security was needed within the apparatus of government.  Mr Mercer first became Tory spokesman for homeland security under Iain Duncan Smith and pursued the former Tory leader's belief that ministerial responsibility for homeland security should carry Cabinet rank.  Mr Mercer also uses his article to say that "much of the policy beginning to emerge from the new Minister’s office reflects many of the ideas and concepts in which I have been involved from the Opposition benches."

Mr Mercer will be responsible for "a project that looks at the safety of crowded places (clubs, shopping malls etc) and tries to design out the threat of terrorism as far as that is possible."

Previously critical of Labour's performance on homeland security, Mr Mercer hopes that counter-terrorism policy can become a cross-party affair.  He cites the consensual approach to Northern Ireland and in the World Wars as precedents:

"Go back a couple of decades and we can all remember how the difficulties in Northern Ireland were faced and then controlled by the parties working hand in hand with one another. Go back even further and it is clear that coalition governments had to be formed in the two world wars. Had we failed to do so, and had we allowed the venal interests of day to day politics to intervene, then I suspect that the results might have been very different."

He now writes: "I hope that the parties can work together on an even and sensible keel and that we do not become distracted by squabbling over this all-important subject. I shall certainly contribute as much as I can."

Labour's murmuring grassroots

By demoralising the Thatcher-hating core Labour vote Baroness Thatcher's afternoon tea at No.10 may well cause more long-term damage to Brown than to Cameron, although I doubt that that was in her or her advisers' calculations.

Glancing around what there is of a Labour-supporting blogosphere I see that Bloggers4Labour "can't imagine any remotely plausible political strategy" for the "nauseating sight" of them together. Skipper believes Brown was right in saying that Thatcher was a conviction politician, but sees his cosying up to her as yet another example that he is not, and poor GrimmerUpNorth resents being booed at a local Palestinian Solidarity Campaign fund-raiser because of it.

So what will be the mood of the Labour faithful as they gather in Bournemouth a week on Sunday? I'm no expert on the internal machinations of the Labour coalition but I did attend their conference last time it was there (not as a member) so have some idea of the type of people who go. Then, in 2003, they were all muttering darkly about "blood for oil" and I often found myself compelled to defend Blair.

Now they're meeting for the first time under Gordon Brown's premiership but it will hardly be a love-in. It won't simply be the things that he's "done" in the last few months that will have annoyed them - as well as the above he's recently had run-ins with the Prison Officers' Association, Rail Maritime Transport union and, to some extent, the Trades Union Congress - but the things he hasn't done.

What happened to the man the Left looked up to? Many of them Some of them will have held out during the Blair years patiently waiting for the coup d'etat, and now Brown's got the crown and gone all Blair on them. New Labour hacks will accept Brown's political manoevring for what it is, but the ideologues will be wondering when the political capital is actually going to be used for some ideological ends (sound familiar?).

Deputy Editor

Saatchi & Saatchi to run Labour's election advertising campaign

It won the bid with this effective slogan:

Campaign magazine said:

"Saatchis is understood to have clinched the business after impressing Labour with the breadth and depth of its creative ideas, its capacity as a big agency and the new management approach under SSF chief executive Robert Senior."

What it doesn't mention is that M&C Saatchi (now a different company) is applying for the Conservative contract. Robert Senior was glowing about Brown:

"This is a seminal moment for Saatchi & Saatchi and a seminal moment for Kate [Stanners] and myself. It's a real statement of intent for the agency. We have the opportunity take the strength and conviction that Gordon Brown has shown as Prime Minister and apply our creativity to that to do the right thing for the country."

Saatchi & Saatchi was the company that successfully worked on Thatcher's campaign, although Maurice and Charles Saatchi were ousted from it in the mid-90s and it was M&C Saatchi that ran Howard's advertising campaign.

Deputy Editor

Bercow and Mercer to advise Brown's 'unity' government

Gordon Brown gets back on to the political stage today.  The Telegraph gives prominent coverage to their interview with him and yesterday's retreat of British forces from the centre of Basra is likely to be soon followed by further troop withdrawals.  This is the start of Mr Brown's September offensive.  That offensive will determine whether he re-establishes a significant opinion poll advantage and gambles on an October General Election.

Speaking to the NCVO Mr Brown has announced that two backbench Conservative MPs will advise his Government.  I'm not yet clear what role John Bercow will perform but he will, as predicted by Ben Brogan, undertake an advisory role.  Patrick Mercer's agreement to advise Lord West on security is much more of a surprise and perhaps reflects Mr Mercer's continuing disappointment at Mr Cameron's treatment of him last year.  Both men are certainly aiding Mr Brown's attempt to portray his administration as a government that can unite the country.

11am update from BBC Online: "Patrick Mercer, forced to quit as Tory homeland security spokesman after a row over alleged racist comments, is to advise Lord West on security matters.  Fellow Conservative MP John Bercow is to head a review into support to children with learning difficulties.  Mr Brown also said that the Lib Dem MP Matthew Taylor would be advising the government on future land-use policy."

11.30am, Caroline Spelman statement: “Patrick Mercer and John Bercow both have expertise in these fields and if this is a genuine attempt to involve talented people from other political parties, then it is welcome. David Cameron has always made clear that he would work with Gordon Brown on issues where we agree and both Patrick Mercer and John Bercow discussed their intention to join these reviews with the party in advance.  But it is important some of Gordon Brown’s other ideas finally result in action.  He has talked about many of these ideas throughout the last ten years but failed to deliver on them.  The Government has announced the idea of citizens juries no less than 15 times since 1997."  This statement says that Bercow and Mercer discussed their new roles with the party before they were announced.  My understanding is that the party leadership (reluctantly or otherwise) gave the two men their blessing so there will be no chance of disciplinary action against them - as some have urged in the thread below.

Gould advises Brown to call an early poll

It happened to Tony Blair, now it's happened to Gordon Brown: a memo from Philip Gould has been leaked to the Daily Mirror. In the memo, apparently written before Brown took over from Blair, Philip Gould advises the Prime Minister to call an early poll.

In his ten-point plan Gould says the Prime Minister should portray himself as a "muscular" leader with a strategy of "audacious advance". He says:

"The best way of achieving this is to hold an early election after a short period of intense and compelling activity - a kind of 'shock and awe strategy' blasting through the opposition. It is inconceivable that you will not enjoy a significant honeymoon when you become leader. You need to build on this and translate it into a new mandate. I am sure this strategy will work."

He does make clear the problems that Labour face in the next election - warning that about 60% of voters want "dramatic change" - but tells Brown:

"You have to exemplify renewal, change, and a fresh start. Your Premiership has to have a dynamism and an energy that pulls people along in its slipstream. You must become the change Britain needs."

Gould warns Brown against emulating Blair saying: "It will not be enough just to be different to Tony. You should be identifying challenges and driving the nation forward to meeting them. You should own the future." He adds  "When you become leader, you must unleash your power and energy and emerge as the compelling politician and person that you are. Your own distinctive charisma will then emerge."

He makes clear that a radical strategy of change is needed to increase Labour's vote and identifies crime, terror and immigration as the main political issues, even more important than public services and the economy.

Telling Brown: "You should aim to be a great reforming PM." he says: "You must start election planning early. We can't leave it late as we did last time. We must make a start."

Two reasons to be cautious about an autumn poll

I'm pretty worried that Gordon Brown might call an autumn poll but here are two good reasons why there might not be a September/ October election:

1. The SNP are doing well in Scotland.  A YouGov poll reported by the Scotsman notes that the SNP are doing better today than in May when they became the largest party at Holyrood.
2. Labour didn't do that brilliantly last Thursday.  That's not my view but that's the verdict of Mike Smithson over at PoliticalBetting.com.  His post is well worth a read.

PS While referring to Scotland there was an interesting article in yesterday's Scotsman about the Tories by Peter Jones.  Here are two key sections from his article:

"Goldie, with her justice spokesman, Bill Aitken, was in First Minister Alex Salmond's office within days of the election to put the Tories' argument for the agenda in the battle against drugs addiction to move much more firmly towards rehabilitation. Those points have been accepted by the SNP. Aitken has similarly made proposals about the handling of sexual offenders. Again, they have been generally accepted by the SNP.  This is enormous progress. From being the untouchables of Scottish politics, the Tories are now again acceptable citizens. It means that the MSPs now have real political purpose to their work, being able to make real achievements rather than just hoping to get the odd mention in the newspapers.

Much more is likely to come. Apart from the justice agenda, where there is considerable agreement between the Tories and the SNP manifestos, there is also much similarity between their thoughts on business rates (big cuts for small firms) and on the need for Scottish Enterprise to be slimmed down and reshaped...

One other sign of the Tories' return is worth mentioning, and that is the election of a Conservative MSP, Alex Fergusson, as the parliament's Presiding Officer. This may not look politically significant, since he has to divest himself of political trappings. But I recall listening to a ferocious argument between two Labour MPs over who should succeed Betty Boothroyd as Speaker of the House of Commons - Michael Martin, a Labour MP, or Sir George Young, a Tory.

Never forget, said one vehemently anti-Young MP, that Boothroyd's deft handling of the job had helped to convince a dubious electorate that Labour could handle big public offices. Did George Reid, while impeccably impartial, do that job for the SNP? And might Fergusson also do it for the Tories?"

Scottish Chairman Peter Duncan resigned today.  BBC Online has the story.  Let us hope that this opportunity will be used for a reorganisation of the Conservative operation in Scotland and the appointment of a full-time CEO-type figure.

Summer campaign to "keep the heat" on Brown

George Osborne is to announce a campaign against Gordon Brown in case there is an election in the autumn:

"With Westminster gripped by speculation that the Prime Minister is considering a snap election to take advantage of a "bounce" in the opinion polls, the Conservatives are planning to go on the attack. George Osborne, the shadow chancellor and Tory election co-ordinator, said last night the party intended to show Mr Brown that they were ready for an early election. "We intend to take the fight to Labour and show that we have the money to campaign hard. We are going to keep the summer heat on Brown," he said. Tory strategists hope their campaign will check Mr Brown's rise in the polls and dampen Labour's enthusiasm for an early election by showing that a well-financed Conservative Party can mount a hard-hitting campaign."

An election in the autumn is seen as increasingly likely in Westminster. At least one Conservative MP has cancelled their September holiday because of the prospect of an election in that month and a few Shadow Cabinet members are privately convinced of it.

Conventional wisdom is that an early election favours the incumbent as MPs, unlike their opposing candidates, already have a profile in the constituency. The Party's "war book" is already thick however, and it is clearly up to the challenge should Brown take the risk.

Deputy Editor

Bercow defection is expected at time of maximum embarrassment

24 hours ago a Tory MP suggested to me that John Bercow was certain to defect to Labour and it was only a question of when.

Earlier this week the MP for Buckingham attacked Iain Duncan Smith's proposals for a tax allowance for marriage during a Conservative-sponsored debate on the relief of poverty (picture).  In a recent debate on Europe he went out of his way to welcome British loss of powers on asylum policy and to support Quentin Davies' European views:

"I happen to believe that asylum policy is also an area on which we should co-operate. It was referred to en passant by my right hon. Friend the Member for Richmond, Yorks (Mr. Hague), who spoke from the Front Bench about the pursuit of a common European asylum policy as though that were somehow a bad thing. Actually, as I have been arguing for the last two years in pamphlets and elsewhere, it would be a good thing. Why? Asylum is a phenomenon that confronts all EU member states and a great many other countries to boot. If we want seriously and effectively to tackle the growing phenomenon of asylum shopping, to share the responsibility for people seeking sanctuary, and to sign up to and enforce the principle of non-refoulement, we need some sort of collective agreement.

I strongly agree with a great deal of what my hon. Friend the Member for Grantham and Stamford (Mr. Davies) had to say."

Another MP tells me that Mr Bercow was completely silent during a tearoom discussion after Quentin Davies had defected.

Mr Bercow has already been on a long political journey.  In the 1980s he supported a group that argued for the voluntary repatriation of black and Asian people, the repeal of the Race Relations Act and the abolition of the commission for racial equality.  Since then he has become the party's leading advocate of homosexual rights and resigned from the shadow cabinet in 2002 at protest at IDS' opposition to gay adoption.  A defection to the Labour party would not be difficult for a man who has supported the Iraq war and who has opposed tax cuts.

Mr Bercow has often denied that he will defect but the consensus amongst a growing number of Conservative MPs is that he will defect at a time of maximum embarrassment for the Conservative Party.  This post should carry a large speculation warning but I thought you'd all like to know.

Will Brown choose Harman or Dacre in the great marriage debate?

The Tory-Mail relationship hasn't been great of late so there'll have been a few smiles within Team Cameron at this morning's Daily Mail front page splash...

The Mail's enthusiasm for Iain Duncan Smith's likely recommendation that action is taken to reduce the disincentives to marry within the tax and benefits system will be a test for Gordon Brown.  Our new Prime Minister has courted The Sun and Mail ever since he set his eyes on Number Ten.  He will be concerned that he may lose Paul Dacre if he goes too hard against the Tory marriage policy although Harriet Harman et al will be pressing him very hard to do so.

This is how today's Mail leader column concludes:

"Duncan Smith's report is a welcome challenge to political correctness. Though some of his proposals may prove contentious - for example, swingeing taxes on alcohol to fund treatments for drug addicts - his case for strengthening family structures is compelling.  As David Cameron says, mending Britain's 'broken society' is the biggest issue of our times. It will be instructive to see how other parties respond."

Ms Harman's political correctness means she despises any hint that one form of family structure is usually better for children than any other.  That political correctness forces her and her ideological Labour colleagues to ignore the evidence that poverty is almost certainly unbeatable if public policy does not support two parents and marriage.

Labour will attack Cameron as 'weak'

Labour have tried a number of anti-Cameron tactics.  There have been the false start charges of opportunism, the chameleon attack, the estate agent misfire and the comparison with President Bush.  None have worked but they may finally have decided upon a strategy.  It was on show earlier this evening when Labour's James Purnell and our Grant Shapps were interviewed by Sky News on College Green.  Mr Purnell consistently attacked Cameron as weak and (sorry Grant) he won the encounter.

Labour advisers know that Cameron is overwhelmingly seen as more charismatic.  They know that'll be difficult to counter.  They are building up Brown's biggest asset - that voters see him as strong.  The Conservatives need to think carefully about this.  The wrong attacks - 'Brown is a control freak' - may only reinforce Brown's heavyweight reputation.  Remember how Spitting Image used to attack Margaret Thatcher as a tyrant?  Downing Street loved those attacks (they reinforced Mrs T's Falklands stature etc).  When she was painted as mad ('We are a grandmother') the satirists' bite started to draw blood.  Brown needs to be attacked on his record and his closeness to Blair's record.  David Cameron and George Osborne must certainly avoid direct attacks themselves.  They should only ever use surrogate assassins.

Labour leadership nominations open

Nominations for the Deputy Leader open this afternoon and close on Thursday lunchtime. Peter Hain, Harriet Harman and Hazel Blears have already published at least the required 45 nominations, but Alan Johnson seems to be biding his time - he may have almost double that number. Jon Cruddas and Hilary Benn are still holding out for enough nominations.

Nominations also opened for the leadership of the party today but the only interesting aspect to that is who Meacher and McDonnell decide should challenge Brown. The procedure for both contests starts with the lists of backers being posted on Labour's website, then the candidates attend ten hustings before the vote begins between MPs/MEPs, party members and affiliated unions. The victors will be announced in Manchester on Sunday 24th June (Blair stands down on the Wednesday).

Blears (pictured at her launch outside Parliament) summed up well the lack of policy substance so far:

"We have a real sense among us that this campaign has to be about talking about the issues the public are really concerned about."

An important question is whether the deputy race will divide the party or invigorate it. Which Deputy Leader would you vote for?

Deputy Editor

Did the Sedgefield candidate really get no votes?

One of the most quoted anecdotes on election night and in the press the next day was that the Conservative candidate for Tony Blair's own ward in Sedgefield didn't get any votes at all. Shirley Bowes doesn't live in the ward and hadn't even told her son she was standing but she would have at least needed ten nominations from local voters to be an eligible candidate.

This may have been the first time that someone has had no votes so it was a great little story for Blair in his last election as leader... but was it true?

Several people have now come forward claiming to have voted for her, and the Borough Council can't use the Scottish defence of the votes being voided by machines!

Deputy Editor

Reid jumps before being pushed

John Reid told The Politics Show this morning that he would resign from the Home Office when Blair leaves in June, and sit on the backbenches under Gordon Brown's premiership. The Laughing Cavaliers was quick on the uptake with this story.

Alan Johnson had earlier been on Sunday AM welcoming Charles Clarke's decision to not challenge Brown, and John Hutton had given his backing to Brown on GMTV.

Despite unsuccessfully agitating for a serous contender to stand against Brown, Reid claimed that Brown told him there was still a place for him in "his government", but that he "made it plain to him" that he wanted to be a supportive backbencher instead:

"Now I've done nine jobs in 10 years and I think from my point of view I think it's a good thing to be able to go out to listen, to learn, to discuss, to get back to the grass roots. But also from the point of view of an incoming prime minister. I think the new prime minister should have the maximum flexibility. He needs space."

Reid also said that Brown needed more fresh faces in his Cabinet (Roy Hattersley had urged the "appointment of a young, vigorous and obviously able cabinet" in the Observer). So there's more room for a young gun now, but also for another Scot - increasing the likelihood of Alastair Darling bagging Brown's current job. 

Deputy Editor

Blair and Brown

A poll in the Independent today, exactly 10 years since the 1997 election, says that almost two-thirds of Scots, 63%, think Tony Blair has been a good PM. Speaking to party loyalists in Edinburgh this afternoon, Blair gave the strongest indication yet of his imminent departure and endorsement of Mr Brown:

"Within the next few weeks I won't be Prime Minister of this country. In all probability, a Scot will become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom... someone who has built one of the strongest economies in the world and who I've always said will make a great Prime Minister."

He also said on GMTV today that he will give a definitive statement on his position next week. Meanwhile a slightly cringing video of Blair and Brown was posted on to YouTube today. It follows a dozen or so mere members of the public as they have the immense honour of meeting their superiors:

Deputy Editor

Will Blair resign before Thursday's elections?

Is Tony Blair planning a final gift to the Labour Party by resigning before next Thursday's local elections?  The Express and Telegraph speculate that he might be planning to take advantage of the saturation coverage that would greet such an announcement.  Although there would be a reminder of Labour's failures - including of the handling of the Iraq war - there would also be focus on his achievements, including the Northern Ireland peace process.

Margaret Thatcher was deeply unpopular in 1990 but her resignation and the associated coverage of her premiership produced a bounce in her standing.  Labour may be hoping a resignation next Tuesday - the tenth anniversary of Blair's election - might do the same for their party's candidates for Thursday's elections.  Mr Blair might even announce that he'll be supporting Gordon Brown and give Labour a much needed boost in its ratings for unity.

Republicans in Washington regret that George Bush only sacked Donald Rumsfeld after last November's Congressional elections.  Many believe that the Senate might still be in GOP hands today if Bush had forced Rumself out a few weeks before polling and had demonstrated a willingness to listen to American voters' concerns.

Iain Dale speculated about this happening last week and even drafted a resignation speech for Blair.

Brazen Labour plan crime blitz on David 'softie' Cameron

The Government that managed to 'lose' more 1,000 foreign prisoners is about to suggest that David Cameron is 'soft on crime'.  Today's Guardian suggests that Home Secretary John Reid will charge the Tories with being 'soft on crime' because of:

• questioning of extradition laws;
• opposition to identity cards;
• refusing to support 90-day detention and control orders; and
• Tory suspicion of ASBOs.

The Guardian suggests that the Queen's Speech will have a strong law'n'order flavour in a bid to put the Tories on the back foot.  The Sun was critical of the Conservative approach yesterday and The Mirror has already been doing Labour's bidding...

Some Tories will have sympathy for the Labour attack.  The reason why 36% of party members most fear John Reid as Labour leader is because of his tough guy language.  They would like similar toughness from David Cameron and worry about the 'hug-a-hoodie' headlines.

ConservativeHome believes that it will be difficult for Labour to present the Tories as 'softies' for five main reasons:

1. Labour's own very mixed record;
2. David Davis' credentials as a tough man;
3. Nick Herbert's police reform agenda;
4. David Cameron's own commitment to the vital 'prison works' policy; and
5. His willingness to address the causes of crime.

Miliband is latest Labourite to misfire at Cameron

Ever since David Cameron arrived on the political scene the Labour Party has struggled to agree on a way of opposing him...

• The Brownites and Blairites differed from the beginning - one camp thinking that he should be portrayed as the smiling frontman for an extreme agenda and the other thinking he should be portrayed as a lightweight;
• John Prescott attacked Cameron for 'opportunism and triviality';
• Then there was the chameleon attack;
• That didn't work so Labour insulted Britain's 134,000 estate agents by saying that the Tory leader was like as "slippery" as all of them...

In this week's Spectator, David Miliband has had another go.  Britain's most boring political blogger has attempted to offer an intellectual critique of Cameronism.   I've read the article three times and still don't understand it.  His only consistently transparent trick is to misrepresent conservatism and then to attack it.  If this is the best Labour can do then it's very unimpressive.

Labour isn't fit for its purpose

Sir Jeremy Beecham, Chair of Labour's NEC, admitted quietly on Friday that donations to Labour had "disappeared" since the cash for peerages scandal was uncovered. He said he was considering requesting the Phillips inquiry to ask for more government money to cover Tony Blair's security at all Party events.

The Telegraph's front page features a starker story today:

• Labour may not pay September's wage bill for its 230 employees
• Labour MPs will be asked to cough up £1000 out of their salary
• Unions such as Unison were being leaned onto provide more money
• The Party's accounts are described as "woefully insolvent" by a senior accountant
• Lord Levy's fund-raising department is being disbanded, making several of its key employees redundant
• Voluntary redundancies are being sought amongst staff at its northern office in Newcastle

Labour deny the first three points, but it would be politically significant if Labour really is courting the Trade Unions for more money. Like government grants, their funding would not come without strings so we would expect more of a "true Labour" manifesto at the next election rather than a New Labour one.

Considering that the number of Labour Party members has more than halved whilst they have been in power, and the number of its Councillors dramatically reduced at local elections, its ability to put up a decent fight at the next election has got to be seriously questioned.

Conservative Associations were recently urged to raise annual membership subscriptions to at least £25 by January, although this would just bring them closer to the current membership rates of the other parties. Pointing out that the Conservative and LibDem accounts were hardly ship-shape, the Telegraph's leader warned of renewed calls for full state-funding of political parties:

"This is an idea that must be shouted down at once: rather than imposing an ethic of good housekeeping on the parties, it would merely encourage them to waste more of our money instead of their own. A better and far more popular approach would be for the leaders to agree that the whole edifice of British party politics must be scaled down for the general good."

Political parties do of course have a vested interest in funding themselves the easy way, but Conservatives should resist this. It would not only be staying true to our principles, but - assuming we can keep the faith of our own activists - it would stop a dying Labour Party being bailed out by the taxpayers.

Deputy Editor