ConservativeHome's ToryDiary

Desperate Labour MP blames Tories for rise of BNP

If I had to draw up a list for reasons why the BNP are gaining ground my list would be topped by Labour sleaze, Labour's failure to control our borders and then Labour's record on crime, housing and poverty.  But apparently I'm wrong.  Tory European policy is apparently to blame.

This is what Denis MacShane MP has written for Comment is free:

"Slowly, the European election is coming to the boil. The Observer rightly highlighted the worry that the BNP will make a breakthrough. It was the Greens in 1989, UKIP in 2004, so perhaps in 2009 it will be the BNP. The Tories have prepared the ground with their constant xenophobic attacks on Europe."

Tory Community Cohesion spokesperson Sayeeda Warsi reacted furiously to the Labour MP for Rotherham's intervention (from MailOnline):

"It's much easier to blame somebody else than address the failings and shortcomings of the current government, which means some voters feel that a fringe party is an attractive alternative. I know more than anybody else what it's like to campaign against the BNP. They got 6,000 votes in my home town of Dewsbury at the last election. Labour either shout and scream that everybody who votes BNP is a racist or alternatively they try to blame us for raising legitimate issues to which they have no answer. It used to be immigration, now it's Europe. Most people who vote for the BNP aren't racist. I accept that they feel so frustrated by the sort of politics they see today that they feel the only way to be heard is to vote for a racist party. They would never want to have them in power. It's their way of giving the other parties a kick up the backside."

There are signs that Labour may be using the BNP to hide their own problems (see John Rentoul today).  Something to watch.

Tim Montgomerie

'UKIP have completely wasted their big opportunity'

In terms of defeating the UKIP threat in June's European Elections a leaflet from Tory MEPs chooses to emphasise their MEPs' record of failure rather than addressing the independence argument head on.

Point 1 of a leaflet charges:

"UKIP let down their supporters. They returned 12 MEPs in 2004, but completely wasted their big opportunity. Their MEPs have been characterised by in-fighting and scandal; as a result, one third of their MEPs have left or been expelled."

Access a full PDF of the anti-UKIP leaflet.

The leaflet in the series that attacks Labour focuses on a failure to honour a promise to hold a referendum on Lisbon, Labour MEPs' support for joining the Euro, support for the Working Time Directive, support for an EU Space programme and also for a Euro Army:

"Labour MEPs have repeatedly voted in favour of steps towards a European army. For example, they voted in favour of an ‘integrated European Armed Force.’ Yet on another occasion, they voted that the EU should be a ‘nuclear-weapon-free zone.’"

Access a full PDF of the anti-Labour leaflet.

The best of the leaflets is against the Liberal Democrats.  The themes are similar to the Labour leaflet with LibDem Europe policy at least as bad as Labour's and much less known among the voters in, for example, the West Country, who still support Britain's third party in large numbers.  Key quote:

"The EU Court of Auditors has been unable to give the EU accounts a clean bill of health for 14 successive years, but Liberal Democrat MEPs have voted year after year to approve the EU accounts."

Access a full PDF of the anti-Liberal Democrat leaflet.

Tim Montgomerie

> Last Monday we published the leaflet that made the positive case for voting for Conservative MEP candidates.

David Cameron launches new campaign for a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty

David Cameron has just launched the above poster as part of the Conservative campaign for the European Parliament election.

With the Constitution-cum-Treaty still yet to be ratified in Ireland, Czech Republic and Poland, Mr Cameron said now was the time to "maximise the pressure" on the Government to hold the referendum it promised at the last election. Indeed, he pointed out that the Conservatives were the only party which had stuck by its word on the issue (since the Lib Dems changed their tune as well).

Given recent U-Turns by Gordon Brown on public spending, MPs' allowances and "Titan" prisons, he said that he wanted another U-Turn - "and what better U-Turn to have than one on the European Constitution?".

In answer to the inevitable questions from the media about what the party would do if the Treaty has come into force across the EU if and when Cameron becomes Prime Minister and forms a government, Mr Cameron pointed out that people were saying the same thing a year ago, that it would have been ratified across the EU, "but here we are a year later and they still haven't... so let's concentrate on the here and now".

He repeated the familiar mantra that in such an eventuality, "we will not let matters rest there", but repeated that "the key thing is to maximise the pressure now" on Gordon Brown and Labour.

Jonathan Isaby

Ten reasons why Tory MEPs are 'delivering for Britain'

These reasons were put out in a leaflet (PDF) at Tory Spring Forum:

1. Fighting for British jobs by opposing job-destroying EU legislation like the Working Time Directive.
2. Opening up new markets for British business in sectors such as services, telecoms and energy.
3. Tory MEPs have defended British traditions - defeating attempts to ban the sale of goods in pounds and ounces. Tory MEPs have also fought for honesty in online air fare advertising and limited roaming charges for mobile phone use in Europe.
4. Conservative MEPs have kept their promise to campaign against the revised Constitutional Treaty and for the British people to have a referendum on Lisbon.
5. Conservative MEPs have voted to scrap wasteful EU spending, campaigned against the two homes for the European Parliament and to defend Margaret Thatcher's EU rebate.
6. Conservative MEPs are the only UK party to have voted against signing off the EU accounts every year since 1998 given that the EU Court of Auditors continues to refuse to give the accounts a clean bill of health.
7. Tory MEPs supported new EU legislation to cut carbon emmissions, promote renewable energy and control the use of dangerous chemicals.
8. Conservative MEPs support reform of the Common Agricultural Policy and freer, fairer trade with the developing world.
9. The Conservatives' Right To Know regime for expenses is the most transparent regime of any UK political party.
10. On animal welfare the Tories in the European Parliament have successfully campaigned for bans on battery cages for chickens, improved conditions for rearing pigs and a ban in trade of cat and dog fur.

ConHome's Reason 11 would be Dan Hannan.  THAT speech to Gordon Brown in the European Parliament.  He addressed Spring Forum in Cheltenham yesterday.  It's a must-watch speech and thanks to ToryBear you can watch it here.

Tim Montgomerie

> Conservatives in the European Parliament website

Can we end the human rights nonsenses while Britain is still a member of the ECHR?

The above question seems to me to be a very important one.  It's one I can't answer and that James Forsyth explores over at Coffee House.

Our Justice spokesman Dominic Grieve appears to argue that the answer is 'yes'.  His hand has been reinforced by the move of Nick Herbert (who, I understand, leaned towards 'no') to a different portfolio and Ken Clarke's elevation to the shadow cabinet.

James is in the 'no' camp (and there are a number of other senior people in Team Cameron who are also worried): "If Cameron wants to actually deal with the problems created by the overreach of the European Court of Human Rights then he will have to get himself a new shadow Justice Secretary."

Someone needs to give us a clear answer?  One of the Dominics - Grieve or Raab? - there's a Platform waiting for your answer...

Tim Montgomerie

Telegraph: Stuart Wheeler has been expelled

Telegraph leader:

"The expulsion of Stuart Wheeler from the Conservative Party was inevitable from the moment he decided to write out a large cheque to finance Ukip's campaigning for the European Parliament elections. The contests on June 4 will be a crucial staging post for the general election. It is imperative from David Cameron's point of view that the Tories perform as strongly as possible to provide a launch pad for the challenge ahead. He knows, as Mr Wheeler must also know, that the difference between a good Tory result and an exceptional one is the extent to which Ukip can attract Eurosceptic voters who would normally support the Conservatives..."

...continues.

8.15pm Confirmation from BBC News:

11pm Statement from CCHQ: "Eric Pickles, Conservative Party Chairman, has confirmed that the Board of the Conservative Party intend to expel Stuart Wheeler due to his support for another party. As a precursor to expulsion he has been formally suspended and has 28 days in which to appeal."

Pro-Europe Tory MP calls for Stuart Wheeler to be expelled

Ian Taylor MP of the Conservative Group for Europe has become the first Tory MP to call for Mr Wheeler to be expelled.

He has just emailed ConservativeHome this statement:

"David Cameron has said that: "UKIP is sort of a bunch of ... fruitcakes and loonies and closet racists, mostly."

They have nothing to do with the Conservative Party, thank goodness, not least because we are firmly in favour of reforming the EU from within.

No-one who is a supporter of UKIP can be accepted as a Conservative Party member."

I don't think it's helpful to resurrect that David Cameron quote but for reasons already blogged, I agree that Mr Wheeler must now be expelled.

Tim Montgomerie

Eric Pickles must expel Stuart Wheeler

I cannot hide the fact that I've dithered somewhat over this one but reading the thread below my earlier post has convinced me that Eric Pickles should enforce party discipline and expel Stuart Wheeler from the Conservative Party.  I have three things to say:

Party members cannot be allowed to openly support other parties: One of the strengths of the Conservative Party under David Cameron has been its unity. Although members' privileges are being eroded by the leadership there has to be responsibilities attached to the fact that members, for example, have a right to elect the party leader and select candidates. If the party leadership turns a blind eye to members openly advocating support for other parties then unity and discipline will be difficult to maintain in more difficult political times. It is also important that Stuart Wheeler isn't seen to get special treatment because of his status as a Conservative Party (ex-)donor.

We should thank Stuart Wheeler for his support for the Conservative Party: As I commented last night, Stuart Wheeler helped the party when we most needed help. He did so from high principle. He has never sought personal advantage from his giving to the Party. In fact, he has specifically ruled out joining the House of Lords. His Euroscepticism and campaigning on human rights are admirable. The Conservative Party is already experimenting with non-membership affiliations - such as internet 'friends'.  I hope he does vote for the Conservative Party at the next election. He should be expelled with regret and there must always be a way back into the party for people who are natural allies.

Europe is an issue that cannot be ignored: I am delighted that David Cameron is set to deliver on his pledge to take our MEPs out of the EPP.  For the first time the European Parliament will have a serious opposition to the EU's constant drift to ever closer union.  Europe as an abstract issue may be low on voters' list of priorities but European law and directives affect every aspect of British life including immigration and our ability to fight crime.  Some in the Conservative leadership want the issue of Europe to go away.  A head-in-the-sands stance will only encourage more members to follow the example of Stuart Wheeler.

Tim Montgomerie

"There are no plans to remove Stuart Wheeler from the Conservative Party" Wheeler may be expelled

11am update: A Tory spokesman tells me that Stuart Wheeler may still be suspended from the Conservative Party.  "We are not going to take these decisions late on a Saturday night," I'm told.

Iain Dale argues that Stuart Wheeler should be expelled from the Conservative Party for supporting UKIP's European Elections campaign but a Tory spokesman, quoted on Radio 4's 8am news bulletin, says that there are "no plans" to remove the Tory donor from the party's membership list.  Mr Wheeler who writes in The Sunday Times that the EU is more expensive than the recession, has said that he intends to support UKIP in June's European Elections but will vote Conservative in County Council elections on the same day and "is likely" to support Conservatives at the General Election.

The case for expulsion: If action is not taken against Mr Wheeler, many other Conservatives will conclude that there are no consequences for them doing the same. The consequences for party unity and discipline could be serious. Conservatives who advocated supporting UKIP at previous European elections - while promising to return to the Tory fold immediately afterwards - have been expelled.  Taking action against a donor will send a powerful signal that they can't buy special treatment.

The case against expulsion: Mr Wheeler's support for leaving the EU is shared by many Conservatives and expelling him could trigger more tensions between the grassroots and the leadership.  It is better to turn a blind eye to Tories who vote UKIP in June but have every intention of supporting Conservatives in the real contest - the General Election. The political party system is in decline anyway and the idea that people are going to be rigidly loyal to party structures in future is out-of-date.  And, let's not forget, Tory grassroots members were not allowed a say in ranking existing MEP Tory candidates.  Finally, Mr Wheeler has been generous to the Tories in the past and we should forgive him this one disloyalty.

What do you think?

Tim Montgomerie

Stuart Wheeler defects to UKIP supports UKIP with £100,000 donation but "likely" to support Tories at next General Election

The News of the World has the scoop that Stuart Wheeler has defected to UKIP and gifted Nigel Farage's party a £100,000 donation.

He told the News of the World:

"The EU is doing so much damage to our economy and our way of life that I can no longer vote Conservative at the European elections. The Conservatives, though perhaps more eurosceptic than Labour, just wish no one would talk about the EU so that they can win the general election in peace."

Very disappointing news.

Tim Montgomerie

5pm: I've left this comment below: "Look, I think Stuart Wheeler has made a serious tactical error but he has been geneous to our party when we most needed help, he's a man of principle on Europe and human rights. Let's remember that as we comment."

7pm: I've now spoken to Stuart Wheeler. He will be voting UKIP in June's European Elections but Conservative in local elections.  He says that it is "likely" that he will support the Conservatives at the next General Election and will donate too.  I've updated the title of this post accordingly.

Daniel Hannan MEP becomes a worldwide internet phenomenon

About 25 hours ago, Conservative MEP Daniel Hannan posted onto YouTube the video of speech he delivered yesterday afternoon in the chamber of the European Parliament in Strasbourg, during which, for want of a better phrase, he well and truly monstered Gordon Brown.

As soon as I saw it, I also posted the clip onto our PlayPolitical site and just a day later - with a little help from a Drudge Report link - nearly 80,000 over 260,000 (as at 10pm Wednesday) over 575,000 (as at 6.30am Thursday) people have watched it, making it the most viewed YouTube clip in the world today.

I have known Daniel for a decade and apart from being a robust eurosceptic who is fluent in a number of languages, he is an extremely articulate Conservative. His exposure on the web over the last 24 hours will have won him some new fans, and I imagine that they, like those of us who have known of his abilities for rather longer, would join me in hoping the party makes the best use of those talents in the months and years ahead.

You can relive yesterday's speech again below.

Jonathan Isaby

Lynton Crosby is running Libertas's European election campaign

Lynton Crosby, the strategist who masterminded four election victories for John Howard in his native Australia, not only ran the Conservative Party's 2005 general election campaign, but was also responsible for Boris Johnson's successful bid for the London mayoralty last year.

In so doing, the "Wizard of Oz" won many admirers in the Conservative family here in Britain and gained the respect of all who watched him at work. After his experience running the 2005 general election, he set up a London office of his business, Crosby|Textor, and he has been a regular visitor to these shores ever since. He has been a great asset to the British Conservative cause and many have previously speculated as to whether he could be persuaded to run future election campaigns for the party.

As such, many will be disappointed to hear that over the last couple weeks he has been spotted at the Brussels HQ of Libertas, the political party set up by Declan Ganley - the man who ran the successful No campaign against the Lisbon Treaty in Ireland.

Having picked up rumours of Mr Crosby's appearance there during my trip to Brussels earlier in the week, sources have now confirmed to me that Mr Crosby and his company have indeed been engaged to manage Libertas's pan-European campaign for the elections to the European Parliament in June.

Declan Ganley is on the record as saying he wants to run a slate of candidates in Britain at June's European elections - against Conservatives - so it would seem remiss of CCHQ not to have snapped up Lynton Crosby first. He is, however, a businessman, and in that sense cannot be blamed for taking up what was presumably a lucrative offer of work.

But it would in all likelihood make it very difficult for the party to engage him in the future, which is a great shame.

Jonathan Isaby

Jonathan 'Two Exclusives' Isaby

My co-editor Jonathan Isaby is in Brussels today and tomorrow. He's there with Tom Greeves of ConHome's Parliament page.  They're there to explore improving our coverage of the European Parliament and also preparing the ground for the European Elections.

I've greatly enjoyed working with Jonathan since he started work last October.  I thought I'd struggle to find a replacement for Sam Coates but Jonathan, with his different qualities, is proving to be a really excellent colleague.  His address book is much bigger than mine and he's less ideologically punchy.  I think we may have the beginnings of a good cop, bad cop thing.

I write this now to acknowledge his two big exclusives last week: (1) Breaking the news that the Tories were finally exiting the EPP and (2) The story, followed up by many news sites, that Eric Pickles was off to Majorca as part of a new effort to win ex pat votes.

Tim Montgomerie

"The Eurosceptic way to voters' hearts should be through their wallets."

Drawing on research from the TaxPayers' Alliance, Roger Helmer MEP will be campaigning across his Euro region with this poster and message:

Good for Roger.  As much as some of us would wish it were otherwise, many voters aren't motivated by questions of lost sovereignty but might move towards a more Eurosceptic pattern of voting if they realise the practical costs of the current EU membership deal.

As Iain Martin wrote back in January: "The Eurosceptic way to voters' hearts should this time be through their wallets."

More on Roger's website.

Tim Montgomerie

The Conservative Party's exit from the EPP would seem a step closer

3.45pm update: Shadow Europe minister Mark Francois has confirmed the news with the following statement to ConservativeHome:

"This afternoon William Hague, Timothy Kirkhope MEP and I met with Joseph Daul in Strasbourg. The meeting was amicable and during the course of it, we confirmed to M. Daul our long-standing intention to leave the EPP and establish a new grouping in the Euroepan Parliament after the 2009 elections."

Tremendous news.

---

With what would appear to be extremely prescient timing, last night's Newsnight featured a film about progress on David Cameron's pledge to take Conservative MEPs out of the federalist EPP in the European Parliament.

Their reporter, David Grossman, has written about the issue on the BBC website and you can watch his film via the BBC iPlayer (35 minutes in).

French MEP Jospeh Daul, the chairman of the EPP, was interviewed on the programme and said that "we have now reached the point where David Cameron really does need to decide" [whether the Conservatives definitely will pull out and, if so, when].

Well, it looks like he will have his answer very soon. William Hague is today travelling to Strasbourg, where he will meet M. Daul, and I hear that it is his intention officially to give him notice of the party's intention to leave the group at the end of this term of the European Parliament, before the elections in June. He will be accompanied by shadow Europe minister, Mark Francois, and they will also be having meetings with the Conservative MEPs and a variety of putative partners for the a new political grouping.

I will post any further details when I have them.

ConservativeHome's views about the EPP are well-documented and the party's departure from it cannot come a moment too soon.

Jonathan Isaby

Immigration could be top issue at European Elections

Last Friday's Telegraph reported that immigration was becoming voters' top issue.  This morning's Times warns of "hordes of unemployed workers heading west" unless radical action is taken to bail out recession-struck Eastern European nations.  But although the "rich" EU nations will struggle to afford any bailout this week's Economist uses its cover feature to warn that "western Europe cannot afford not to pay it."  It warns of catastrophic implications for EU banks and the wider economy if the East is allowed to fail.

The same issue of The Economist carries an article examing the pressures facing Germany as it moves towards a reluctant acceptance that "the collective" will have to help.  The article is illustrated with a photograph of Angela Merkel digging into her handbag.

Both UKIP and the BNP will undoubtedly seize on these issues as June's European Elections approach.

UKIP's political credibility was damaged last night, however, after Robin Page accused his former party's leadership of falling in love with "the high life of gravy and status".  Writing for The Telegraph Mr Page said: "The party created to fight centralised government, sleaze and corruption has become a parody of itself, a mirror image of the body it professes to loathe."  UKIP is dismissing the attack as sour grapes after the former presenter of BBCtv's One Man And His Dog was prevented from standing as a UKIP candidate in East Anglia.

Tim Montgomerie

Right-wing commentators rejoice at Lindsey strikers' victory

The strikers at the Lindsey Oil Refinery have won 102 more jobs for local people.  Janet Daley and John Redwood are delighted:

Janet Daley: "I wonder if those local people in Lincolnshire will be willing to forget how the political leaders of their country traduced them when all that they were demanding was a fair opportunity to earn a living? For that egregious sin, they were smeared with the charge of "xenophobia", accused of being benighted bigots who failed to welcome foreigners into their midst, and generally pilloried as the reactionary scum of the globalised earth. Any politician (or media commentator) who dared to express sympathy for them was attacked as "populist", "opportunist" or worse. And most of this abuse was being hurled by people on the Left."

John Redwood MP: "I do support free trade, and I don’t think strikes are a good way of resolving disputes. Yet I do take my hat off the strikers this morning who highlighted the manifest injustice of EU law, and have won the concessions of some jobs for locals."

Meanwhile Nigel Farage MEP is using the controversy to make the case for leaving the EU.

The Right is hugely confused by this issue. Concern for British workers is tempered by concern at wildcat industrial action. Belief in free trade is offset by scepticism about the fairness of the European Union's single market. This story will run and run as the recession deepens and will be a new test for the party's attitude to capitalism.

Tim Montgomerie

2.15pm Comment from Charles Tannock MEP: "UK MEPs have always supported the "posting of workers directive" and the proposed "services directive" precisely to allow UK firms to compete for contracts in the single market, and vice-versa. Of course ideally a number of these workers will be recruited in the receiving host member state particulalrly if they have the requisite skills and the pay de,manded is reasonable but this cannot be mandatory as it defeats the whole object of the single market, which involves open competition. Its funny when I posted a while back on ConHome criticising the idea of free and totally unfettered trade globally I was lambasted as a quasi socialist by some of the same types who now defend excluding EU companies with their acompanying short term contracted staff from bidding for contracts in the UK. Sometimes people are so blinded by their hatred of the EU they will ditch all their previously sacred economic principles, and that goes for UKIP which claims to be a global free trade party." Originally here.

Conservative MEPs lead the way in Europe with publication of their expenses

Tory MEPs have this morning published their expenses for the last quarter of 2008.

Timothy Kirkhope MEP comments:

“Conservative MEPs are the first British delegation in the European Parliament to voluntarily publish details of our allowances and expenses. I hope that other parties will follow now that we have led the way.  We now have in place a system that ensures greater openness and transparency, and goes significantly beyond the rules set down by the European Parliament."

The Tory delegation (with quite a bit of encouragement from David Cameron) is to be congratulated for leading the way on transparency.

Via this link you can inspect all MEPs' recent expenses and the names of their staffers (including family members employed).

Unlike all other retiring Tory MEPs Christopher Beazley has not published his expenses, however.  Mr Beazley is on 'defection watch'.  It is feared that this ardent Europhile might defect closer to June's European Elections.

More worryingly the UUP MEP Jim Nicholson hasn't declared either.  He is now supposed to be a de facto member of the Tory delegation and he needs to be transparent too.  A job for Owen Paterson?

Tim Montgomerie

Ken Clarke can't see Britain joining Euro in his political lifetime

Excellent performance by Ken Clarke on Andrew Marr's programme in which in predicted that Britain wouldn't join the Euro in his "political lifetime".

He said that it was a decision for David Cameron but that he hoped to play a role in the next Conservative government.  He wasn't just in this for a spell on the opposition benches.

On the big story of the day - allegations in The Sunday Times that Labour peers were prepared to accept 'cash-for-laws' - he said that an independent investigation would be needed to establish whether "corruption" was present.

One question: It seems extraordinary that these peers will be able to keep their places in the Lords if they are found guilty.  Surely that needs to change?

6pm: Watch the interview.

Ken Clarke: Tories will get more pro-European in office

So Mr Clarke said six weeks ago, according to The Guardian:

"I think the need to be working with Obama will influence my party on Europe. It is still firmly Eurosceptic but it's now moderate, harmless Eurosceptism. It's a bit silly sometimes, like which group do you join in the European parliament, but full-blooded stuff like renegotiating the treaty of accession is as dead as a dodo. We've got lots of ideas on European policy on energy, security, relations with Russia, climate change, all that kind of thing [but] somebody like me is far more relaxed about all that [and if the Tories] get into office the pressure of the American alliance will make them more European."

Mr Clarke was speaking at an academic conference in Nottingham.  I remember the words well as I was chairing the panel session when he made those remarks.  He also warned about higher taxes but I reported those at the time (after agreeing them with his office).  The rest of the session was supposed to be off the record.

Tim Montgomerie

Grassroots give a big thumbs up to the reshuffle

1,087 members voted in this survey which we put into the field at 3.30pm yesterday afternoon.

There's a big welcome for David Cameron's three biggest appointments.

The net approval for Ken Clarke's appointment is particularly interesting.  When we asked in December if members wanted Ken back we got a fairly narrow 50% to 41% 'yes vote'.  That has widened markedly now with just 22% disappointed at the decision now that it has been made.

Members are evenly divided however on the new Shadow Business Secretary's impact on the party's European policies.  37% fear that he will "block any moves towards more Euroscepticism" and 39% think he won't.

Other survey findings are very positive:

• 76% agree that "the shadow cabinet is now punchier, readier for battle";
• 75% agree that "the economic policy team is much strengthened";
• 71% agree that "Grayling, Pickles and Clarke protect the party leadership from Labour's 'Tory Toffs' attack";
• Only 26% agree that "the reshuffle shifts the party somewhat towards the Left".

Tory members are also relaxed about the Obama effect.  On a forced choice question:

• 62% agreed that "President Obama will have no big effect on British politics";
• 24% agreed that "President Obama's representation of change will help Cameron politically";
• Only 14% agreed that "President Obama's fiscal stimulus package will help Brown politically".

First reactions to the return of Ken Clarke

Most reactions to Ken Clarke's return on last night's thread were positive.  The same is true of reactions from bloggers and commentators.  Arranged below are key arguments.

The economic times are so serious that David Cameron is correct to bring such a successful former Chancellor back to the frontbench: "The world has changed, and if in response to the resulting tumult Barack Obama can do a deal with Mrs Clinton and Gordon Brown can rediscover his friendship with Peter Mandelson, then surely the Tories should be able to bury the hatchet (in their opponents rather than each other) in order to turf out Labour?" - Iain Martin

His time as Chancellor remains respected (even to The Independent): "His tenure at the Treasury remains highly regarded – something that cannot be said of all former Chancellors."

 Ken Clarke can make complex economic issues understandable: "He may also be the Tories' Vince Cable. What Cable does is talk about economics in clear English - not using Brown's jargons, nor the soundbites Osborne often uses. To Clarke, economics is easy - and, like Cable, he makes it sound easy. It has been a joy listening to him on the economy recently." - Fraser Nelson

Clarke's pro-European views may create tensions: "Mr Clarke's pro European views - in particular, his support for Britain scrapping the pound and joining the Euro - have alienated him from the mainstream of his party. The issue of Europe is still a live one since some now argue that the current economic crisis demonstrates the case for the Euro. Also, the Tories are opposed to the Lisbon EU Treaty which Clarke has backed and they are committed to holding a referendum on it which could lead to a Cameron-led government Britain re-negotiating Britain's relationship with the EU." - Nick Robinson

Ken's European views will be submerged within his acceptance of shadow cabinet responsibility: "To those Tories who recoil in horror at the return of Ken Clarke, I'd say this. Few of us agree with his views on Europe, but they should not be allowed to colour the fact that he is a big hitter and is very popular with people who are either soft Tories or not Tories at all. He will have to abide by the same collective responsibility as the Shadow Cabinet and will know that." - Iain Dale

The Conservatives have invited a very loose cannon into their highest ranks: "Mr Clarke has always said precisely what he thought on matters relating to the EU, having appeared on platforms with his political opponents to the detriment of the Conservative Party and to the embarrassment of the Leader. Indeed, he even favours a coalition with the europhile Liberal Democrats, and has publicly said so. He is a loose cannon, and regularly defies the Party whip with impunity: indeed, his voting record identifies him as a rebel." - Cranmer

Clarke's return is a boost to those who wish to see the Tories form a deal with the Liberal Democrats: "Let's not forget that Clarke sees coalition with the Lib Dems as a good thing. As he told me three years ago "I'm glad to say the fates could condemn the Conservatives and the Liberals to form a coalition." - Fraser Nelson

And finally... a Conservative MP emailed me this cartoon from 1993.  No further comment necessary:

Tim Montgomerie

Ken Clarke returns... as Shadow Business Secretary

Tory sources have confirmed that Ken Clarke is returning to the Tory frontbench.

As we predicted last week, the Tory reshuffle has been brought forward and other announcements will be made tomorrow, probably all finalised by lunchtime. 

Mr Clarke will be Shadow Business Secretary.  He will replace Alan Duncan who is being offered a different "senior role".

CCHQ is briefing that it was in December that George Osborne first suggested a frontbench role for the former Chancellor and thrice-defeated leadership candidate.  The Telegraph's Andy Porter got there first in terms of media speculation.  That was when the Conservatives were faltering in the polls and Mr Clarke's return was seen as a quick route back to economic credibility.

Over lunch yesterday (Saturday) George Osborne, David Cameron and Ken Clarke met to agree terms.  That it was Osborne rather than Hague at the meeting confirms that it is the Shadow Chancellor who is the real Deputy Leader.

Mr Clarke has accepted that the Tory position on Lisbon, the EPP and the Euro is settled.  He won't attempt to change party policy but neither will he change his views.  His focus, says the spin, will be 100% on his new portfolio and the interests of British business.

David Cameron has gambled that any internal unhappiness at Mr Clarke's return will be smothered by the renewed Conservative strength in the opinion polls - now 13% ahead according to YouGov.  Mr Clarke brings immediate media firepower to the Tory frontbench.  Any announcement from his office will attract media attention but you can expect lots of 'Clarke overshadows Osborne' stories to come from mischievous sections of the press.

ConservativeHome opposed Mr Clarke's return but a plurality of grassroots members (50% to 41%) supported a comeback.

Tim Montgomerie

10% of people who will vote Tory in a General Election will vote UKIP in June's Euro elections

That's the suggestion of a YouGov poll carried out by The Taxpayers' Alliance and Global Vision and released to tomorrow's Sunday Telegraph.  The Sun Tel's Patrick Hennessy warns that that number will only harden if Ken Clarke returns to the Conservative frontbench in the much anticipated reshuffle.

Overall voting intentions for next June's elections are (with 2004 actual voting percentages in brackets):

• Conservatives 35% (26.7%)
• Labour 29% (22.6%)
• Liberal Democrats 15% (14.9%)
• UKIP 7% (16.1%)
• Greens 5% (6.3%)
• BNP 4% (4.9%)

The poll also finds that 16% of Britons want to leave the EU altogether and another 48% want a looser relationship.  64% reject Euro membership.

Ones to Watch in 2009

Our fifth 'picks'. Already picked are our Backbenchers, Frontbenchers, Moments and Speeches of 2008.

Jonathan Isaby's pick: 2009 is the year when the pledge made by David Cameron during the 2005 leadership election to pull Conservative MEPs out of the federalist European Peoples' Party faction in Brussels should finally come to fruition. The man who has been doing the most behind the scenes to seek new alliance partners across Europe is Mark Francois, the shadow Europe minister. There's another six months' work to be done on this before the European elections, after which we will discover which political parties from across the continent are willing to sign up to a new grouping. European Parliament rules have been designed to frustrate the project - but if Mark can pull it off, he will attain folk hero status among Tory eurosceptics.

Tim Montgomerie's pick: I was tempted to choose Barack Obama for this category. He's certainly the one to watch on the international stage but he could also have a dramatic impact on UK politics.  If he undertakes far-reaching economic intervention he may boost Gordon Brown.  On the other hand his freshness and sense of change may boost David Cameron.  But, on balance, I've plumped for a domestic choice and my one to watch for 2009 is Boris Johnson.  He has already made a terrific start as Mayor - certainly exceeding my expectations.  I think of him freezing the Mayor's contribution to council tax.  Ousting Ian Blair.  Banning alcohol on the tube.  Stopping the extension of the congestion charge.  Introducing crime mapping.  ConHome surveys show that he's the most popular Tory amongst the grassroots - more popular than William Hague or David Cameron.  What will he do with the Mayoralty in 2009?  He has the opportunity to be a trailblazer for many Tory ideas although with his ideas on a new London airport and an immigration amnesty he has made it clear that he's his own man

Who would you pick out as the one to watch in 2009?