A year ago the Conservative Spring Forum was in Gateshead. I urged the Tory leader to give a speech that levelled with the British people:
From reports it appears that David Cameron will deliver something close to that speech today, in Cheltenham.
With the considerable exception of the party's opposition to Darling's autumn stimulus (although even that was backed by considerable private polling) the Tories have been very unwilling to get ahead of public opinion on the recession. And let's be clear: This tactic has been an enormous political success. A second YouGov poll put the Tories 18% ahead last night. The collapse of Labour means that it's as certain as anything in politics that David Cameron will be Prime Minister. Political success doesn't mean success for the country, of course. New Labour were an enormous political success but did not succeed as a government.