ConservativeHome's ToryDiary

Eric Pickles takes us inside CCHQ...

In the first of a series of 'War Room briefings' the Party Chairman Eric Pickles takes us inside CCHQ and talks about the party's strategy.  He also urges members to click on to the revived CampaignTogether webpage where you can find out which by-elections are taking place and where help is most needed across the country.  This video is why ConHome wanted Eric as Party Chairman.  He loves campaigning and he is determined that CCHQ connects better with the grassroots.  It's also why Jeremy Middleton - another enthusiast for technology and membership democracy - will be such a good new Chairman of the Convention.

Tim Montgomerie

All but The Mirror may desert Labour

Newspaper endorsements are not as valuable as they once were but the editorial endorsements of a newspaper are still actively sought by politicians - not least because they tend to influence the overall news priorities of that newspaper.

Over the last 24 hours I've been speaking to journalists within all of Britain's main daily newspapers (and The Economist) - at least two on each - and speculating about their likely endorsements at the next election.

What we are likely to witness is Fleet Street making a mass defection from Labour to the Conservatives.

Only The Mirror is sure to endorse Labour.

Fleet Street's four swing voters - the FT, Economist, Times and London Evening Standard - are likely to endorse the Conservatives although no final decisions have been taken.

Commercial and ideological reasons mean that The Guardian and Independent will stop a long way short of endorsing the Conservatives but are likely to continue to give David Cameron a fairer hearing than they have given any previous Tory leader.

More details below the graphic.

The survey of likely endorsements will be hugely encouraging to the Tory machine.  Andy Coulson has coordinated targeted wooing of all of Britain's newspaper editors and proprietors.  David Cameron's office was in touch with the new owner of the London Evening Standard within hours of him assuming control of the title.  CCHQ are encouraged by the thinking across Fleet Street but assume that they will still have to work hard to ensure that each individual deal is sealed.  Most newspaper editors won't make a final decision until much, much closer to polling day.

How the Conservative machine plans to win power for David Cameron

Peter Oborne writes today that a Tory victory is far from certain.  He does not believe that there is yet a groundswell of support for David Cameron in the way there was for Tony Blair in the mid-1990s.  He also thinks that the views of many Tories on, for example, fox hunting and the NHS - as expounded this week by Edward Garnier MP and Dan Hannan MEP - could yet frighten voters.

But The Telegraph suggests that current polling in marginal seats - where the party leads by 14% - points to a big Conservative victory.  The marginal seats data is part of a major Telegraph feature that profiles key elements of the Tory plan to ensure that victory IS delivered:

Framing the election as a choice between David Cameron and Gordon Brown: CCHQ is very confident that David Cameron is a huge political asset for the party.  "The election will be all about David v Gordon [Brown], Cameron will be plastered over everything we do," a source tells The Telegraph: "Not since the focus on Margaret Thatcher will you see a Conservative campaign so focused on one person."

A focus on middle-of-the-road swing voters: Citing the decision to return Ken Clarke to the frontbench and to accept Labour's 45p tax band The Telegraph quotes a strategist as saying "there is no point in focussing on immigration, Europe and other traditional right-wing areas as it will no longer attract voters as they are already on side. But it might put some voters off."

A focus on the three big issues of healthcare, education and the economy.

Different campaigns for different seats: As already revealed by ConservativeHome the party is not just focusing on geographical clusters of marginal seats but also on "seaside towns" and "new towns", for example.  Each cluster receives a different style of literature and a different messages are emphasised.

A capacity for immediate rebuttal: "In Coleshill in the West Midlands, a rapid response unit has been established with its own printing facility. It is able to immediately print "rebuttal" leaflets which can be delivered within hours. This was trialled with devastating effect when the Lib Dems attempted a dirty trick in last year's Henley by-election. If Labour airs a damaging political broadcast, the Conservatives should be able to have a leaflet rebutting the claims on doormats before breakfast the following morning."

The Conservative's "electoral board" meets once a week to discuss tactics. Chaired by George Osborne, the board also includes Andy Coulson; Stephen Gilbert, the chief of Lord Ashcroft's polling and seats operation; and Ed Llewellyn, David Cameron's chief-of-staff.

Tim Montgomerie

"I want to be forgotten as party chairman... The really successful party chairmen are the ones you don't really remember": Eric Pickles talks to ConservativeHome two months into his new role

It's a couple of months now since Eric Pickles took up the role of Conservative Party Chairman, and by all accounts he is loving the job - rather like the child who has finally been allowed to take the controls of the train set. Yet there is only one thing on which he is focusing - winning the general election - and when I met him in his office at CCHQ to talk about how he is settling into the new job, he refused to be distracted from that aim.

"What I'm trying to bring to this job and to the building is a focus on the election; if it ain't about the election, we've got to think about it in 18 months’ time," he asserts. "Nothing matters to me more than these elections in June and the one that will follow at some time. And that's what I'm here to do. There are some people placed as party chairman to be great reformers of the party. My job is to make sure this place is working happily, contentedly, but focused on those elections."

Party employees tell me that they have been impressed with his approach to the job, not least the little ways in which he shows his appreciation for what they do. Personalised notes arrive when someone is deemed to merit special praise and I gather that he also sends birthday cards to all CCHQ staff.

"Part of my job... is to encourage folk," he says. " I'm here to bring the best out of people, I'm not here to throw my weight around. You can either stand at this door and shout at people or you can wander up to their desk and just encourage. I want to ensure that everyone feels part of a big team. They're not doing it for the money, they're working as part of a cause they feel committed to. I think that has to be recognised."

He does a full tour of CCHQ once a week in order to get that chance to speak one-to-one with employees and one of his first decisions in the job was to reinstate a weekly staff meeting.

"It's about showing people what we're doing, why we're doing it and how we're going to be doing it.  I hope that's made a difference, and I'm told folks appreciate that."

Lynton Crosby is running Libertas's European election campaign

Lynton Crosby, the strategist who masterminded four election victories for John Howard in his native Australia, not only ran the Conservative Party's 2005 general election campaign, but was also responsible for Boris Johnson's successful bid for the London mayoralty last year.

In so doing, the "Wizard of Oz" won many admirers in the Conservative family here in Britain and gained the respect of all who watched him at work. After his experience running the 2005 general election, he set up a London office of his business, Crosby|Textor, and he has been a regular visitor to these shores ever since. He has been a great asset to the British Conservative cause and many have previously speculated as to whether he could be persuaded to run future election campaigns for the party.

As such, many will be disappointed to hear that over the last couple weeks he has been spotted at the Brussels HQ of Libertas, the political party set up by Declan Ganley - the man who ran the successful No campaign against the Lisbon Treaty in Ireland.

Having picked up rumours of Mr Crosby's appearance there during my trip to Brussels earlier in the week, sources have now confirmed to me that Mr Crosby and his company have indeed been engaged to manage Libertas's pan-European campaign for the elections to the European Parliament in June.

Declan Ganley is on the record as saying he wants to run a slate of candidates in Britain at June's European elections - against Conservatives - so it would seem remiss of CCHQ not to have snapped up Lynton Crosby first. He is, however, a businessman, and in that sense cannot be blamed for taking up what was presumably a lucrative offer of work.

But it would in all likelihood make it very difficult for the party to engage him in the future, which is a great shame.

Jonathan Isaby

Don't underestimate the internet, Eric

The Telegraph suggests this morning that Eric Pickles is cautious about the importance of the internet.  Doorstep campaigning and overall political message are much more important, he says.  That's fair comment but I do worry that the Conservatives are missing a once-in-a-generation opportunity to build an army of online allies (my ideas for doing so are here and here).  It's much easier in opposition than it will be in government.

I worry that despite some excellent appointments, CCHQ still doesn't quite get the internet.  Before Eric Pickles became Chairman £500,000 was spent by the Conservative Party on newspaper advertising to recruit online supporters!  That money should have been used to run excellent campaigning websites dedicated to issues that will motivate voters at the next election.  Campaigns are launched on the web but are never updated.  See the recent Pubs Campaign as an example.  The party is still doing next-to-nothing in terms of online fundraising.

Here are 25 words for Eric to reflect on as he considers CCHQ's internet ventures:

“The lesson we have learned with technology is that people overestimate the impact in the short run and underestimate the impact in the long run.”

- Morten Kyng.

Politics will be dominated by the internet within ten years.  I hope the Tories don't end up having to play catch up.

Tim Montgomerie

Eric Pickles gears up to lovebomb the Liberal Democrats (again and again and again)

Eric Pickles will be getting his night's rest on a Sleeper train to Cornwall.  After an evening speaking engagement he's heading towards the South West for a tour of Conservative-Liberal marginals.  His day begins at 7.30am tomorrow with a breakfast engagement in Truro and it's a full day of meetings thereafter.  An aide to the new Party Chairman tells me that this visit communicates two of the big themes that Eric Pickles wants to characterise his tenure at CCHQ: graft (he promises to match the sacrifice of volunteers) and a focus on the LibDems.  With opinion polls pointing towards a perhaps decisive increase in the Tory lead some party strategists are recommending a significant shift of battleground resources into unseating Liberal Democrat MPs.  Eric Pickles is a big advocate of the lovebombing* tactic.   

Tim Montgomerie

* After years of unsuccessfully trying to scare people from voting LibDem (because, for example, of their strong pro-Europeanism, their social permissiveness or 'soft' approach to crime), the Tories decided that it was better to flatter them and appear to agree with them on key issues. The love-bombing strategy was partly a result of fears that negative campaigning against the LibDems risked reinforcing voters' perceptions of the Conservatives as mean-spirited rather than affecting voters' perceptions of the 'nice' LibDems.

Eric Pickles is new Party Chairman

Eric Pickles is being appointed Conservative Party chairman in today's reshuffle, news which we greet warmly.

We presume readers will too, since he was your choice for the job in our survey last week.

Caroline Spelman will remain in the shadow cabinet, though in which post we do not yet know.

Fundraising duo promise to 'blow Labour out of water'

It was a story we under-reported one week ago but the recruitment of the much-respected hedge fund trader Stanley Fink (estimated worth £116m) to help Tory Treasurer Michael Spencer (estimated worth over £1bn) is a huge boost to the Conservative Party.  The FT certainly realised the significance of the story at the time and splashed it across their front page last Saturday.

The good news comes after a recent round of redundancies at CCHQ and some concerns at poor financial management.

Fink and Spencer are interviewed by The Daily Telegraph's Andrew Porter and their optimism about fundraising will delight every Tory activist:

"Do the money men have a plan if an election is called in the next few months? Could they raise the cash that quickly? Worryingly for Labour, they do.

Mr Spencer says: "We obviously will have an immediate call to arms and we already have sounded out our donors already, in the event of an election, can we count upon you?"

Would that mean £18 million in the kitty?

"Absolutely."

Surely, the aim is to use the money he raises to crush Labour?

The answer is unequivocal.

"We will blow them out of the water.""

Tim Montgomerie

Eric Pickles wins grassroots' confidence to be next Party Chairman

1,495 party members took part in our online survey on Wednesday and yesterday and Eric Pickles won the lion's share of support when we asked Who should be the next Party Chairman?  We offered a choice between the four most talked-about candidates for the job.

The result does not mean that, for example, Eric is three times more popular than Chris Grayling.  Last week we found that Pickles and Grayling were level-pegging in terms of overall satisfaction.  What this survey suggests is that 57% of members believes that Eric Pickles has the best mix of skills and personality to become a key face of the Conservative Party - particularly for the next General Election campaign.

I still expect Mrs Spelman to be exonerated from the nannygate inquiry.  I hope she'll stay in the shadow cabinet but I agree with members that Eric Pickles is the best candidate to be Party Chairman.  Jeremy Hunt is one of my three 'big beasts of the future'.  The speculation is that he's Cameron's choice to the next Chairman.  We'll soon know.

Tim Montgomerie

Almost perfect

Credit where credit's due.  Today's debt campaign launch was almost perfect:

The ad is clever (although I hope we're not spending too much on billboard placements).

The debt message is now being pursued relentlessly. David Cameron is comfortable with the message. It's a winning message. Repeat, repeat, repeat and it will be remembered by the public.

This was much more than an ad launch.  It was backed up with substance.  George Osborne launched a paper - Labour's Debt Crisis - detailing Brown's borrowing.

It was multimedia.  There was a video - two videos in fact - as well as a billboard.

There was a sense of theatre to today.  It wasn't just another Cameron speech.  The hall was huge.  There was music at the beginning.  It was almost like an election launch.

David Cameron performed well but today was also a team effort.  It was interesting after the formal event to watch a host of frontbenchers working the room - talking to journalists and invited party donors.

One thing missing: Anger.  I still want to see David Cameron get angry (Baby P-style) at the waste of the Labour years.  He still seems too reasonable.  Too detached.  What Brown has done to this country is unforgivable.  Benedict Brogan disagrees with me.  He sees David Cameron as "mad as hell".  I'm still waiting for a fifth gear performance but today was encouraging for a partisan Conservative.  Very encouraging.

PS This was the other video at the launch:

Tim Montgomerie

'Spelman in the clear'

That is what the Evening Standard's Paul Waugh is reporting.  I certainly hope so.  Caroline Spelman might never have been my choice for CCHQ but as said at the time she's a woman of integrity and I hope she is exonerated.

Tim Montgomerie

The Tory operation makes a strong start to 2009

The Conservatives can be pleased with their media impact since Parliament recessed for Christmas:

The party dominated the holiday period: The frontbench scored a number of front page splashes including Eric Pickles on council tax (Daily Telegraph); George Osborne on tax relief (Sunday Times), Michael Gove on teacher absence (Daily Mail), and James Brokenshire on knife crime (The Sun).  The Liberal Democrats once saw holiday periods as an opportunity to fill the gap left by the main parties.  One of the successes of Andy Coulson's CCHQ operation is that the LibDems are now denied easy hits.  The return of Oliver Dowden to the party's political section is part of the explanation for increasingly improved operation.

Yesterday's announcement on tax relief for savers: After a feisty performance by David Cameron on the Today programme the tax reliefs announcement won broadcast attention throughout the day.  I  missed the evening TV news bulletins but the Conservatives actually led Radio 4's Midnight News - relegating Gaza to the number two spot.  The Mail, Sun, Telegraph and Express all give thumbs up coverage this morning.

And today shadow cabinet members are holding meetings across Britain to discuss the party's plans for fighting unemployment: David Cameron will be in Salford, Michael Gove in Plymouth, Plymouth, Jeremy Hunt in Bristol, Caroline Spelman in Southampton, Theresa May in Maidstone, Philip Hammond in London, Andrew Lansley in Ipswich, Andrew Mitchell in Nottingham, Sayeeda Warsi in Birmingham Birmingham, George Osborne in Cardiff, Eric Pickles in Leeds, William Hague in Tynemouth, and Chris Grayling in Edinburgh.  When I worked at Conservative Central Office I remember a presentation when we were told that regional media was more trusted than national media, broadcast media was more impactful than print media and most trusted of all was third party media like the RSPB magazine.  I don't know where the internet fits on the scale but today's well-planned operation involving local journalists, business leaders and voluntary organisations will have a significant impact even if not noticed by the Westminster lobby.

Tim Montgomerie

Jeremy Hunt MP takes further step towards heart of Project Cameron as party's 'online spokesman'

Talking to ConHome, Jeremy Hunt said:

"David Cameron is absolutely determined that the Conservatives will be the most technologically literate of all parties at next election. That requires a root and branch reform of our campaigning. Online campaigning is essential to reaching younger voters who don't have tribal loyalties of many older voters. It is a huge challenge for us to match what America's political parties did in the presidential elections. Having seen the online team that has been assembled I am hopeful that we'll be able to stay ahead of the game.  I'm really looking forward to my new role."

This new role for Jeremy Hunt is confirmation of the Tory leadership's high view of him.

Alongside Eric Pickles and Chris Grayling he is a hot tip to be the next Party Chairman if Caroline Spelman is moved or resigns.  The Observer's Gaby Hinsliff reports that Mrs Spelman may receive an "unsatisfactory acquittal".  The length of the inquiry into Mrs Spelman's employment of her former nanny and secretary is of enormous frustration to the Tory leadership.  With CCHQ ready for an election as early as next month - and more possibly by April - David Cameron may now decide it's too close to an election to change Chairman.

> Video profile of Jeremy Hunt

Conservative Research Department unaffected by recent economies

Last week ConHome broke the news that 16 to 24 people were sadly losing their jobs at CCHQ. Yesterday I noted the self-inflicted wounds that were exacerbating the effects of the credit crunch.

Some blogosphere chat has suggested that the Conservative Research Department has been affected by the economies. That isn't true. It may even be possible that some refugees from the 'crunched' External Relations Department will join CRD and result in it being strengthened somewhat.

The Telegraph's Iain Martin has picked up the story btw and his recommendation that one person be put in charge of CCHQ is absolutely on the money.  We've been worried about there being Three Chairmen for some time.  With Andrew Feldman's appointment there are at least four cooks endangering the broth.

Tim Montgomerie

Waste, over-spending and poor revenue strategies contribute to CCHQ's deteriorating financial position

Earlier this week ConservativeHome revealed the sad news of job losses at CCHQ, combined with a pay and hiring freeze.  Over recent days we have learnt that the financial situation facing the party is worsening.

To paraphrase George Osborne (and Fraser Nelson in the News of the World) the Tory leadership did not fix the party's finances during the good economic times and are now facing very difficult decisions as a consequence.

Fraser suggests that overall income is down by 10%, that the number of £50,000 donors may have halved and that David Cameron has personally authorised up to £2m of extra expenditures, none included in the budget for the year.

The credit crunch is obviously not Conservative Party's fault but the effect would have been more limited if there were better financial controls and a more strategic view at CCHQ.  Here are some of the issues:

• £500,000 was spent on newspaper and internet adverts earlier this year to launch a 'Friends of the Conservatives' scheme.  Few Friends have been recruited and many believe that that money could have been much better spent.  There are many other harder-to-cost examples of controversial, big ticket expenditures.
• Very high-paying positions at CCHQ continue to be filled by closed process of appointment rather than via open selection.
• Almost nothing has been done to raise money via the internet.  More than £250,000 spent on the recent revamp of conservatives.com did nothing to change that.
• CCHQ are repressing the publication of membership data but it is feared that numbers have fallen by at least 17,000.  Although members can receive some financial benefits through an affinity scheme there are no other benefits from the centre from being a Tory member.
• Job cuts are falling disproportionately on the external relations department, responsible for long-term relationship-building with women, ethnic minorities, business and other third parties.  This department, if well-run, could be the source - not only of vital third party endorsements and policy intelligence - but also a generation of new supporters and donors.

I know there will be some readers who think that these issues shouldn't be discussed but the culture of secrecy at CCHQ - and the consequent lack of accountability - explain, in part, why these mistakes have been repeated again and again over recent years.

Tim Montgomerie

Noon: Fraser Nelson has more at Coffee House.

Credit crunch hits CCHQ

No organisation is immune from the recession and ConservativeHome has learnt that 16 to 24 jobs are likely to be lost at CCHQ in coming weeks.  Staff were informed yesterday.

The difficult financial climate - and recent (probably temporary) slippage in the polls - has hit fundraising and forced CCHQ to take a close look at how it uses all resources.

In addition to the redundancies we also understand that there will be a pay and hiring freeze across CCHQ.

A spokesman told ConservativeHome that there is never an ideal time to tell people that they will be losing their jobs and before Christmas is a particularly difficult time but the decision was taken to inform people now rather than later.

We wish all those losing their jobs the very best in finding new employment.

Thursday, 5pm: The Guardian now has more on the scale of the financial retrenchment at CCHQ.

CCHQ must pounce on mis-reporting of Tory spending plans

Yesterday David Cameron announced that the Conservatives would grow public spending more slowly than Labour. He did not announce cuts. It's not the easiest message to communicate but broadcasters shouldn't be allowed to misreport the Conservative plan. Each time that a normally responsible broadcaster like Sky posts a factually-inaccurate headline like the one captured on the right, CCHQ should be on the phone demanding (polititely) accurate reporting. Peter Mandelson was hardly off the phone in the run up to 1997 (although CCHQ should use persuasion rather than his bullying). The Mirror will talk of cuts - nothing can be done about them - but mainstream braoadcasters should not be reinforcing Labour's narrative.

Put Eric Pickles in CCHQ

The newspapers are full of those Bullingdon photographs again.  You would have thought that Labour had learnt the lesson in Crewe and Nantwich.  They tried class war then and it backfired spectacularly.

We still think the Conservative Party would benefit from an earthier feel, however.  David Davis' resignation left the Tory leadership looking slightly unbalanced.  Eric Pickles is a grassroots favourite, an accomplished campaigner, a northerner and a great communicator.  He should be appointed as Party Chairman at the earliest opportunity in order to blunt any Labour Bullingdon attacks.  We look forward to a Pickles Express visiting key target seats throughout the election campaign.  We'd quite like to be a passenger!

In recommending Eric Pickles for CCHQ we don't mean to disrespect Caroline Spelman.  Behind-the-scenes she has done a good job for the party but a different frontbench portfolio might be better suited to her talents.

> Step 3/10: There must be room for forgiving-and-forgetting in Project Cameron

Hague leads attack on Mandelson's return

This statement from the Shadow Foreign Secretary has just been issued by CCHQ:

“Today’s reshuffle demonstrates a stunning failure of judgement by Gordon Brown. In bringing back Peter Mandelson – the man who created Labour spin – he has broken his promise to govern in an honest and open way. You can only conclude that his appointment was designed to distract from the changes he should have made. By leaving in place a Chancellor who has failed and a Foreign Secretary who has undermined him at every opportunity Gordon Brown has also been exposed as weak. With this bizarre reshuffle the Prime Minister has achieved the impossible and made the Government even more dysfunctional.”

The organisational strength of CCHQ is proven again with their rapid response document to the Mandelson appointment and wider reshuffle: Download PDF of CCHQ reshuffle document.

Hat tip to CCHQ

The quality of briefings produced by CCHQ gets better and better.  Earlier today they emailed out an analysis of the promises that Brown made last year and his near comprehensive failure to deliver on them.  Read a PDF of the briefing.

The right and wrong ways to attack Labour

CCHQ has just released a very good briefing on how Labour is lurching to the left.  The briefing (a pdf of which is here) notes how Labour is giving more and more favours to their union paymasters (also see The Times). It also details 'lurches to the left' including higher taxes, ending of the fiscal rules, nationalising Northern Rock, the Agency Workers Directive and restricting the freedom of Academy schools.

This substantive criticism of Brown is the right way to go forward.  For the reasons highlighted by Nadine Dorries MP we must avoid personal attacks on Brown.

Eric Pickles for Party Chairman

A new YouGov poll for The Sunday Times gives the Conservatives a whopping 22% lead.  The temptation for David Cameron will be to take no major risks with policy and personnel.  The likeliest personnel change is, however, a change of Party Chairman.

The Mail on Sunday is reporting anger amongst unnamed female MPs at a "whispering campaign" against Mrs Spelman.  Mrs Spelman's defenders attack private briefings in which her axeing is said to be "certain".  In the current environment where voter tolerance of political sleaze is at breaking point, even the slightest criticism of Mrs Spelman in the forthcoming report into the employment of her nanny will result in her resignation.  A ConservativeHome poll of 1,470 party members carried out on 30th June to 5th July shows overwhelming support for Eric Pickles to replace her by the time of the Party Conference:

The Mail on Sunday quotes a defender of Mrs Spelman as saying that appointing Eric to the top job at CCHQ would be "a major setback to Mr Cameron’s attempt to change the party’s ‘white male’ image."  But, it could equally be argued, that Mr Pickles does much more to tackle perceptions that the Tories are too southern and too elitist.   Promotions for Maria Miller and Justine Greening - who has performed a first class task on VED - would also show that Mr Cameron remains committed to promoting female talent.

Mr Pickles has come under fire from some CCHQ insiders for being too willing to take the glory for the victory in Crewe and Nantwich but the overwhelming view of colleagues and staffers is admiration.  Not an easy man to categorise politically, Mr Pickles is not 'of the right' in the way that David Davis is but his appointment would restore some of the balance that was lost when Mr Davis left David Cameron's top team.  Mr Pickles would be a superb, campaigning Party Chairman for the Conservatives in a run-up to the General Election.  We hope he gets the nod.

Tory MPs' away weekend

Upbeat Conservative MPs are spending some quality time together this weekend.

We won't go into details about what they're getting up to but there's lots of discussion about the policy agenda for the next election campaign, and Adam Boulton and Matthew Parris were on hand to talk about handling the media - particularly 'modern media'. 

Boulton spoke about the internet's role in the US elections and was kind enough to say the MPs were lucky to have ConservativeHome as a sophisticated place for people to go that wasn't part of the centre.

Caroline Spelman should quit says Portillo

Michael Portillo has said that Party Chairman Caroline Spelman should quit.  The former Defence Secretary made his intervention after it was revealed that Mrs Spelman's former secretary, Sally Hammond, revealed that she was "shocked" at how much Tina Haynes, the nanny, was being paid a decade ago.

A ConservativeHome poll of 955 members (published last Thursday) found that most members thought Mrs Spelman should stand down while her case was being investigated by the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards and that Eric Pickles should succeed her.

We stand by our view that Mrs Spelman will be exonerated and that she should not step down.  To do so would only encourage vexatious complaints against MPs and other public figures.  That hasn't stopped speculation throughout this week that (post-Henley) she may resign.  An announcement could be made as early as today.