'UKIP have completely wasted their big opportunity'

UKIPleaflet In terms of defeating the UKIP threat in June's European Elections a leaflet from Tory MEPs chooses to emphasise their MEPs' record of failure rather than addressing the independence argument head on.

Point 1 of a leaflet charges:

"UKIP let down their supporters. They returned 12 MEPs in 2004, but completely wasted their big opportunity. Their MEPs have been characterised by in-fighting and scandal; as a result, one third of their MEPs have left or been expelled."

Access a full PDF of the anti-UKIP leaflet.

LabourLeaflet The leaflet in the series that attacks Labour focuses on a failure to honour a promise to hold a referendum on Lisbon, Labour MEPs' support for joining the Euro, support for the Working Time Directive, support for an EU Space programme and also for a Euro Army:

"Labour MEPs have repeatedly voted in favour of steps towards a European army. For example, they voted in favour of an ‘integrated European Armed Force.’ Yet on another occasion, they voted that the EU should be a ‘nuclear-weapon-free zone.’"

Access a full PDF of the anti-Labour leaflet.

LibDemLeaflet The best of the leaflets is against the Liberal Democrats.  The themes are similar to the Labour leaflet with LibDem Europe policy at least as bad as Labour's and much less known among the voters in, for example, the West Country, who still support Britain's third party in large numbers.  Key quote:

"The EU Court of Auditors has been unable to give the EU accounts a clean bill of health for 14 successive years, but Liberal Democrat MEPs have voted year after year to approve the EU accounts."

Access a full PDF of the anti-Liberal Democrat leaflet.

Tim Montgomerie

> Last Monday we published the leaflet that made the positive case for voting for Conservative MEP candidates.

Eric Pickles takes us inside CCHQ...

CT_lrg.ashx

In the first of a series of 'War Room briefings' the Party Chairman Eric Pickles takes us inside CCHQ and talks about the party's strategy.  He also urges members to click on to the revived CampaignTogether webpage where you can find out which by-elections are taking place and where help is most needed across the country.  This video is why ConHome wanted Eric as Party Chairman.  He loves campaigning and he is determined that CCHQ connects better with the grassroots.  It's also why Jeremy Middleton - another enthusiast for technology and membership democracy - will be such a good new Chairman of the Convention.

Tim Montgomerie

Tories target commuters with 'Labour's spent' leaflet

LabourIsSpent In London (King’s Cross, Victoria, Westminster, Euston, Paddington and Charing Cross) plus Birmingham (New St), Liverpool (Lime St), Newcastle, Manchester (Piccadilly), Leeds and Bristol (Temple Meads) Tory activists will be distributing 20,000 copies of this leaflet to commuters.  Good stuff.  I'm about to arrive at Manchester Piccadilly on my way to the MU v Portsmouth game so I'll look out for them...

Tim Montgomerie

Update:

ToryBear has posted the following pictures of Conservative Future activists handing out the leaflets in Westminster and Newcastle; and there's also a photo from Manchester CF and CF in Leeds 

Continue reading "Tories target commuters with 'Labour's spent' leaflet" »

"Labour are relying on diversionary tactics - continual lies and smears"

Those words come from a Tory briefing from 1979 highlighted by Alistair Cooke on the BlueBlog. Nothing much changes, eh?

DailyNotes

Click here to read more of Alistair Cooke's post and scan through the archived documents.

Tories see England and St George as winning theme

Boris&Flag The Mayor of London Boris Johnson writes for today's Mail on Sunday about the massive response that greeted his response to celebrate St George's Day:

"The phones went wild. The emails and the letters started to swamp our response teams. People started crossing the road to shake my hand, pumping it up and down and thanking me with embarrassing fervour. I felt like some Texan prospector who has idly whacked his pickaxe on some piece of unpromising ground and then stood back in amazement before a great gusher of erupting oil."

For Boris, the secret of Englishness is our language:

"If there is one thing that marks us out and defines us, it is the language, the greatest, the most fertile and the most stunningly successful language the world has ever seen. The Germans may beat us at music; the Italians have the edge in painting – but the English beat all comers at poetry, and that is why it is right that we should celebrate St George’s Day in April. It is not only the month that inspired Chaucer and T.S.Eliot. On Thursday we also mark the birth of William Shakespeare, the man who mobilised that language more effectively than anyone before or since.

So why is English so formidable? Why does it knock Mandarin into a cocked hat? Because it has twice as many words as either French or German.  There are 500,000 words in the dictionary, and that is because it is a confluence of the two great streams of Romance and Anglo-Saxon. It is a mongrel language, a language that shamelessly and brilliantly continues to absorb imports from around the world. That is why it is so fitting that St George is himself an import. Like my ancestors, it turns out he was a Turk, and it is testament to the generosity of the English that we have made him our saint.

According to Gibbon, he had nothing to do with a dragon, but was a Cappadocian merchant who made a fortune selling bacon to the Roman army. What could be more appropriate? Napoleon said the English were a nation of shopkeepers. He meant it as an insult. We take it as a compliment. It is that spirit of small-business entrepreneurship that encouraged St George to flog his bacon to the Romans and will lead this country out of recession. So come on out and celebrate the multi-faceted genius of this country, and cry God for Harry, England and St George the seller of bacon!"

Pasted below is a photograph of our candidate in Harlow, Robert Halfon. Yesterday he circulated a leaflet in the town centre of the Essex new town calling for St George's Day to become a public holiday.  The leaflet is going to every home in Harlow.

HalfonStGeorge

Tim Montgomerie.

Labour still isn't working

The bombshell had already made a comeback.  Now the 1979 Labour isn't working poster.  Will the double whammy gloves be back by Christmas!?

Laboursstillnotworking

Tories launch campaign to save British pubs from their biggest ever crisis

(Video features Jeremy Hunt, Shadow Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport).

The crisis facing the British pub is indeed serious.  Six pubs are closing on average every day of the week.  Conservatives are right to draw attention to the problem and you can sign up to the 'Save The Great British Pub' petition.  I just have.

Torycampaigns It's a sensible campaign for the party to run and a good way of gathering email addresses.  On conservatives.com there are also other micro campaigns, including to support small shops, save post offices, oppose ID cards and for honest food labelling.  See them all here.

I can't say that I'm optimistic that the Tories' campaign will have much effect, however.  A small cut in duty on beer - offset by higher taxation of alcopops - (among other measures) is unlikely to compensate for the effect of cheap booze sold by supermarkets.  As recession bites drinking at home is going to be the only affordable option for many.  There is also, of course, the effect of the smoking ban.  The Conservatives don't want to touch that issue.

I'd also be interested in Iain Duncan Smith's reaction.  His CSJ supports higher duties on alcohol - a stance resoundingly rejected by Tory members.

Tim Montgomerie

11am: This video of Grant Shapps MP investigating the problems facing pubs is worth a view:

Cameron and Clegg on the road

Leader writers at The Independent got very excited this morning at the town hall-style meetings being held by Nick Clegg:

"When national politicians do not perpetually put themselves about in the modern way – announcing daily initiatives against telegenic backdrops; volunteering to debate on the BBC's Today programme; offering up some segment of their domestic lives via a webcam – they lay themselves open to criticism for not doing their job. Such is the presumed importance of taking a high media profile in this day and age.

As we report today, however, the leader of the Liberal Democrats, Nick Clegg, has spent his first 14 months in office taking a more softly-softly, more old-style political approach. Less visible on the national stage than Gordon Brown and David Cameron – which perhaps has as much to do with the preference of most media for a duelling style of politics as with any absence from the front line – he has been assiduously tending to the grassroots.

In only a little more than a year, he has held no fewer than 30 town hall meetings all over the country – an average of two a month – and he travels to them by train, second-class. The audiences consist of local people; they are not packed with party loyalists, nor are participants vetted."

All very exciting I'm sure but David Cameron has managed to hold similar town hall meetings (21 in total, see below) and have national media impact.  The Conservative leader's Cameron Direct meetings have been a big success.  I know from Robert Halfon that the tickets for the Harlow meeting were all taken up before flyers advertising the event had even been distributed.  One advert in a local newspaper was enough to attract 250 attendees.  These meetings are a real help to the party's efforts in target seats.  Meetings held outside elections - like literature - tend to be more winsome because they are viewed as less obviously vote-grabbing.  The people who come tend to be community influentials - priests, charity group leaders and so on - and they have time to influence others in the constituency if they were impressed.  Iain Dale scored the Direct meeting he attended very highly.  My favourite Direct moment was when David Cameron was asked if aliens had visited Earth.  Watch the Tory leader's response here.

Tim Montgomerie

Continue reading "Cameron and Clegg on the road" »

Almost perfect

Poster2_2 Credit where credit's due.  Today's debt campaign launch was almost perfect:

The ad is clever (although I hope we're not spending too much on billboard placements).

The debt message is now being pursued relentlessly. David Cameron is comfortable with the message. It's a winning message. Repeat, repeat, repeat and it will be remembered by the public.

This was much more than an ad launch.  It was backed up with substance.  George Osborne launched a paper - Labour's Debt Crisis - detailing Brown's borrowing.

It was multimedia.  There was a video - two videos in fact - as well as a billboard.

There was a sense of theatre to today.  It wasn't just another Cameron speech.  The hall was huge.  There was music at the beginning.  It was almost like an election launch.

David Cameron performed well but today was also a team effort.  It was interesting after the formal event to watch a host of frontbenchers working the room - talking to journalists and invited party donors.

One thing missing: Anger.  I still want to see David Cameron get angry (Baby P-style) at the waste of the Labour years.  He still seems too reasonable.  Too detached.  What Brown has done to this country is unforgivable.  Benedict Brogan disagrees with me.  He sees David Cameron as "mad as hell".  I'm still waiting for a fifth gear performance but today was encouraging for a partisan Conservative.  Very encouraging.

PS This was the other video at the launch:

Tim Montgomerie

Dad's Nose. Mum's Eyes. Gordon Brown's Debt.

David Cameron has just launched this long poster - it will appear across the country (sorry it's split in two halves but my iPhone lacks a wide lens!):

Poster1 Poster2

The message at the bottom of the poster is: Labour's debt crisis: Every child in Britain is born owing £17,000. They deserve better.

Tim Montgomerie

11.30am: Associated video:

What is the 2009 equivalent of Labour isn't working?

The Conservatives will win an early election if they can convince the British people that Labour's borrowing is irresponsible. Although speeches, telephone number statistics and op-eds are essential parts of the persuasion process the most decisive political victories have also been associated with iconic images that resonate with the public.

In 1979, Labour's record on jobs was captured by Saatchi & Saatchi's Labour isn't working poster:

Labourisntworking In 1992, voter worries about Labour's tax plans were solidified by the tax bombshell campaign:

Tax_bombshell

We now need something for Gordon Brown's debts.  What should it be?  It could be a poster or it could be a short YouTube.  Here are two inspirations for you:

If we can get some good ideas on this thread ConHome will translate one of them into 'the real thing'...

CCHQ launch new campaign materials

Picture_3 Earlier this week when conservatives.com launched a national debt clock you asked for it to be embeddable and personalised.

CCHQ have obliged.  Rather than showing the whole national debt the widget they've just launched (much more meaningfully) shows you your own share of Brown's debt... and click here to embed on your own blog.

The bombshell advert has also been updated to take account of Labour's likely intentions on VAT:

291108image1

'However Gordon wraps it up, it's still a tax bombshell'

Article1088617029011e3000005dc715_4 The image above appears in a number of newspapers, including the Mail on Sunday.  According to the Independent on Sunday, "vans showing the "tax bombshell" poster will drive around busy shopping areas in central London."  It continues:

"200,000 leaflets warning that government borrowing will soar to £100bn by 2010 will be handed out at commuter stations and target constituencies."

George Osborne commented: "He is taking the British people for fools if he thinks they can't spot the difference between a tax cut and a tax con."

Picture_6_2

Meanwhile the Labour Party has launched its own campaign.

It attempts to portray David Cameron as an economically illiterate schoolboy.  Click here.

1pm: Nineteen second animated version of the Tory campaign.

Tax bombshell alert

Tax_bombshell_2 The battlelines for the political debate over the coming year will be drawn on Monday when Alistair Darling delivers his pre-budget report.

Bookies have cut the odds on a 2009 general election over the last 24 hours, although I am still of the view that a snap contest is highly unlikely - and that is a point of view which Ben Brogan from the Daily Mail is also backing up.

Nonetheless, the Tory campaign will be ratcheted up a notch or two next week and Martha Kearney from Radio 4's World at One programme is claiming an exclusive in the WATO email newsletter which has just arrived in my inbox:

"Westminster will be showered by bombshells on Monday. No, I haven't been watching too many episodes of Spooks. The Conservatives will be blitzing Labour in a new campaign with a distinctively retro feel. In 1992 the party's tax bombshell poster and election broadcast had a devastating impact on Labour. Who came up with the idea? Why, David Cameron's current head of strategy Steve Hilton who was then a young whizzkid at Saatchi and Saatchi."

Jonathan Isaby

Scottish Tories campaign against plans to criminalise under 21s who use off licences

Scottish Conservatives are direct mailing the postcard below to 10,000 18 year-olds in target seats, highlighting SNP plans to stop under 21 year-olds from purchasing alcohol from off licences.

Picture_3 Picture_4

Murdo Fraser MSP described the Scottish Government’s proposals as "ludicrous, discriminatory and not addressing the fundamental issue." He continued: “Every 18 year old deserves to know what the SNP thinks of them.”

Three vote moving policies

Rrrsummary01 Policy announcements were fairly thin-on-the-ground this week but three, in particular, will be powerful ammunition for the campaign trail:

  1. Council tax is Britain's most unpopular tax and the pledge to freeze it for two years (for those councils that make economies) will be a vote-winner.  Over on the local government blog Harry Phibbs notes how Labour and Liberal councils are preparing to undermine the policy.  Harry thinks we should name and shame those councils.  He's begun to do so.
  2. The £121m commitment to restore weekly bin collections is also a doorstep-winner.  The restoration (which will be voluntary for local authorities) will be funded "by scrapping funding for a range of inspectorates, regional assemblies, Labour's new planning superquango and forcing councils to spend less on promotion."
  3. It's not a funding commitment I would have made in these 'cupboard-is-bare' times but there's no doubt that Andrew Lansley's promise of 45,000 extra single beds will be very welcome to all those millions of patients and their relatives who are deeply uncomfortable with noisy and infection-prone wards.

Hat tip to Eric Pickles for providing two of those three policies and another hat-tip to CCHQ for producing a good overview of party policies: Reconstruction, Renewal, Repair.  A PDF of it is here.

This is the fourth of eight reflections on the Birmingham Conference by Tim Montgomerie. The previous looked at the suspension of green tax plans.

Big government = Big problems

Boris has announced a freeze in the Mayor's contribution to Londoners' council tax and George Osborne has announced his economic recovery plan.  William Hague has given a typical barnstormer of a speech and David Cameron has overviewed the themes of the week.  We'll cover these developments properly over the next few days but CCHQ have produced some great posters for the walls of the Conference centre.  Here are five of them...

Biggovernmentbigproblems

Continue reading "Big government = Big problems" »

This week's must-have

UsbstickApologies for the terrible photo but this USB stick must be the accessory of the conference.  Printed on the stick:

WARNING: TO AVOID DATA LOSS, KEEP OUT OF REACH OF LABOUR.

Different messages for different newspapers

The Tory You can get it campaign has ten messages and there are adverts in many of this morning's newspapers for the different themes...

Sun readers have an advert focusing on cutting paperwork so that more police are on the streets, fighting crime.

Mail readers are promised proper controls on immigration.

Telegraph readers are reminded about the Tory promise to axe inheritance tax for homes under £1m.

Times readers are promised an end to economic incompetence and reckless borrowing.

Guardian readers are promised a good school for their children with teaching by ability and tough classroom discipline.

And Independent readers are going to get more help to go green and produce their own energy.

"You can get it if you really want" (and become a friend of the Tories)

You can get it if you really want is the theme of a £500,000 upbeat advertising campaign that the Conservatives are launching on Facebook, on billboards across Britain and in tomorrow's national press.  Versions of the two ads that you see below will be appearing in seven national newspapers and many regional newspapers:

Youcangetitnhs Youcangetittax

There are ten themes to the Tory campaign: the NHS, policing, borrowing and the economy, inheritance tax, stamp duty, pensions, benefits reform, a tougher approach to immigration, green energy and classroom discipline.  No mention of Europe - that's deliberate with the explanation that the Tories are currently working with the cross-party IWantAReferendum campaign.

The party is also introducing a new form of recruitment: Friends of the Conservatives.  People will be able to register as friends of the party for a minimum of £1 and in return they'll receive a weekly online newsletter and suggestions of how they can get involved in their communities.

A few reactions to all of this:

  1. A half-a-million pound investment is a big deal for a British political party; this far from an election.
  2. It's a positive and upbeat campaign and it's very broad - a good, balanced mix of traditional issues (tax, crime, immigration) with newer messages (protecting the NHS, encouraging greenery).
  3. But is it too broad?  The Tories still lack a big theme.  We think the party would be better to pick fewer, more defining messages and pursue them with hare-like boldness.  We don't necessarily have to pick those defining issues now but we still believe that a war on crime and protecting the NHS would be good bets.
  4. The Friends idea is a good one.  The age of mass membership political parties is over.  CCHQ doesn't have up-to-date Tory membership numbers but the guess is that it's probably still down from 2005.   Our preference, though, would be for people to be invited to be Friends/ Supporters of Conservative campaigns rather than the party.  This is the age of single issue campaigns.  We think people will give money to vigorous campaigns on issues that they really believe in.  Those campaigns will need good websites to give the campaigns life.  Conservatives.com remains an uninteresting site - too focused on us and not the voters and their concerns.

CCHQ highlights widespread abuse of parliamentary communications allowance by Labour MPs

Ruth Kelly has issued an overnight apology for spending part of her parliamentary communications allowance on a constituency newsletter that, in clear breaches of guidance, boasts of Labour Government achievements.  The guidelines state that "no party political or campaigning material is allowable in any part of a publication funded, in whole or in part, from the allowances."

Mrs Kelly told the newspaper that broke the story - The Mail on Sunday - that she apologised unreservedly.  Her autumn newsletter includes the following sentences:

  • “This reaffirms Labour’s commitment to investing in the NHS”
  • “The Labour Government has invested so much in improving early years’ services"
  • It boasts of “the difference made by Labour’s commitment to investing in and modernising our NHS"
  • It includes the slogan from her website “Your NHS. Better with Labour”
  • It also promotes the work of Bolton West Labour Party.

David Davies MP has written to the Serjeant at Arms to complain of these abuses.

Mrs Kelly is not the only offender.  CCHQ has identified other leaflets - paid for by taxpayers - but which appear to be in breach of parliamentary guidelines:

  • "Bridget Prentice, a Minister for Justice, has the Labour Party logo on every page of her newsletter – and even includes a photo of her local Labour Party HQ.
  • Gisela Stuart, majority 2,349, also uses the Labour Party’s colours across the entire leaflet, including photographs with Gordon Brown and claims Gordon Brown is ‘delivering a fair deal for pensioners today’.
  • Julie Morgan includes a section in her leaflet celebrating the arrival of ‘a new Prime Minister’ who has seen ‘many testing occasions’ as well as pointing out she supported Harriet Harman for Labour’s Deputy Leadership."

There are also problems with Labour MPs' websites.  Andrew Mackinlay publishes press releases attacking the Conservative Party – linked from his main news page.   Janet Anderson's website boldly displays Labour party logos and does not acknowledge that the site is taxpayer-funded.

Commenting Francis Maude said:

“The Communications Allowance was deliberately created to enable sitting Labour MPs to protect themselves against their democratic opponents. This is further evidence of how Labour voted through taxpayers’ cash to bankroll their political campaigning in marginal seats. If Gordon Brown is serious about restoring trust in politics, he should scrap this unfair Allowance now”.

Lord Ashcroft and his beneficiaries have contended that his and others' financing of Conservative candidates in marginal seats is a necessary counterweight to the huge advantage enjoyed by incumbent MPs - at taxpayers' expense.  Even without the abuses identified by CCHQ, these leaflets give a huge boost to incumbents and thus produce a very unlevel playing field.

Ruth Kelly's offending newsletter - please click on the graphic to enlarge.

Ruthkellyleaflet

Tory poster to mark the non-election

David Cameron will give a speech tomorrow in his constituency to mark the day that should have been a General Election.  Ben Brogan also has this poster which the Tories have launched to mark the non-election.  Clever.  It follows yesterday's All Trick, No Treat poster stunt.

11pm: A number of commenters below - Chad Noble first - have noted a stupid error in this poster.  The poster promises that "A vote on the European Constitution" has been delayed until the election of a Conservative Government.  This is not, of course, Tory policy with Hague and Cameron both refusing to say whether the party will grant a referendum should the Treaty be ratfied.  I'm sure someone at CCHQ will find a lawyerly way of wriggling out of this poster gaffe but this will draw more attention to an issue that is likely to cause some discomfort for the party in coming months.

Todayhas_2

Tories warn Brown: Call an election and you'll lose your majority

If there is an autumn election few expect the Tories can win a majority.  The party should gain a handful of seats from the LibDems - particularly because David Cameron's 'Waitrose strategy' has worked reasonably well in the south - but the polls suggest that the party is approximately 10% below what it needs for a parliamentary majority.  What is a very real prospect, however, is that the Tories could deprive Gordon Brown of his majority.

In an article for The Sunday Telegraph, Iain Martin notes that boundary changes have already reduced the Labour majority to 50.  In a bid to scare Brown from holding an October 25th poll the Tories are therefore determined to show that they have the money, candidates, campaigning energy and policies to win at least 25 seats from Labour.  On Friday we noted the distribution of hard-hitting literature across 70 target seats.  The distribution effort will continue throughout this week as CCHQ's 'red alert plan' accelerates.  The Conservatives, Martin writes, are most focusing on constituencies that "ring the M25, are dotted in parts of Kent, on the M1 corridor and near the M4."  Elsewhere in The Sunday Telegraph, Melissa Kite notes Lord Ashcroft plans £25,000 bonuses for seats that are judged particularly likely to deliver the '25 seat strategy'.

Nelsonfraser Fraser Nelson makes a ten point case in today's News of the World (not online) for Brown gambling on an autumn election.  If you reframe Fraser's arguments you get the arguments for believing that, events permitting, Tory chances are only likely to get better as the parliament progresses...

  1. Cameron has begun to get his team and strategy right - he'll get better with Andy Coulson at his side moulding messages for strivers and 'Morrisons voters';
  2. Brown's novelty factor will wear off - he can't trade on 'not-being-Blair' for much longer;
  3. The scale of Government borrowing - the worst in Europe - is going to make tax and spending decisions harder and harder for Labour;
  4. Mortgage costs are rising and some experts are predicting 250,000 repossessions;
  5. House price falls will produce a dangerous wealth effect on economic growth;
  6. Immigration is an explosive political issue - the Cambridgeshire police chief's intervention of last week is just a preview of how potent this issue might become;
  7. Increased winter fuel bills will have landed on voters' doorsteps - all part of the increasingly tight squeeze on disposable incomes;
  8. For some unknown reason polls show voters are less likely to vote Labour next year;
  9. 'Gordon Conservatives', as Ben Brogan has dubbed them, and 'Brown Tories' as Fraser has called them, won't be bewitched forever - they'll start returning home if Cameron's rebalancing - blending core vote and progressive messages - continues;
  10. Brown will look less legitimate and certainly less brave in the new year - he will have ducked the opportunity to win his own mandate.

So, in conclusion: (1) Tories hope to kill Brown's thoughts of an autumn election by raising the likelihood of him losing his majority; and (2) There are plenty of reasons for believing that - with time - Brown's chances of victory will get smaller and smaller.

CCHQ on red alert for autumn election

Changenewsletter Over the next few days and during the Labour conference, Tory activists will be distributing a hard-hitting newspaper in target seats.  All target seats were invited to take the newspaper and approximately seventy accepted the offer.

The main themes of the newspaper are crime and the NHS - the balanced themes which saw Tory ratings improve at the end of August and which ConservativeHome hopes will be central to the Blackpool Party Conference.  A large number of policy group ideas will be formally adopted - and rejected - by David Cameron in Blackpool.  An insider tells me that most Conservative activists will be pleased with the response that the leadership plans to give to Gummer-Goldsmith.

The campaign newspaper also has brief sections that individual candidates have personalised and a brief section on Europe - spotlighting Gordon Brown's broken promise on a referendum.

CCHQ is now on a maximum level of readiness - red alert for an autumn election.  A manifesto is drafted.  A programme of events for David Cameron is ready.  25th October is the likeliest date although Gordon Brown won't be making a final decision until he has spoken at next week's Labour conference and reactions to his performance have been focus-grouped.

This morning's Telegraph reported that "private Labour polls show that when people are asked who they intend to vote for the party figures reflect the national polls — a lead of between five and 10 points. But," the newspaper's political editor continues, "when asked if there was an election in the next few weeks how would you vote, the figure for Labour shoots up to a strong double-digit lead."  Let's hope that that is Brownite spin.

I have asked CCHQ to deny speculation that, in the event of an autumn poll, candidates will be imposed on seats that have not yet selected.

5.15pm: UNCONFIRMED but I understand that there's a bad YouGov poll in tomorrow's Telegraph and a 'go for it Gordon' focus group session from Frank Luntz on tonight's Newsnight.  Yeah - that's right - the one who helped propel Cameron to the Tory leadership.

What doorstep pledges would you most like to see unveiled in Blackpool?

These pledges are featured in the Conservative party's online advertising campaign and they will be the core commitments for any autumn election campaign:

  1. It's time to fight the closure of A&E and maternity units across the country.
  2. It's time to support married couples in the tax system and to give all parents the right to ask for flexible working.
  3. It's time to cut taxes on families and increase taxes on pollution.
  4. It's time to set up an effective emergency fund to help the victims of the pensions crisis caused by Gordon Brown.
  5. It's time for tougher sentences, more police on our streets and an end to Labour's Early Release Scheme.
  6. It's time for value for money in public services. We will match Labour's spending but make sure it goes to the front line.
  7. It's time for trade to be fairer and aid more effective.
  8. It's time to stop the closure of special schools and introduce teaching by ability for every child in every school.
  9. It's time for a referendum on the EU Constitution.
  10. It's time to introduce National Citizen Service for the 21st Century: a six-week programme for every school leaver.

(1), (4), (5), (8) and (10) are the ones I would prioritise from that list - not necessarily as the most important for the future of Britain but for the party's electoral fortunes.

I hope the Blackpool Party Conference will also produce some specific and bankable pledges on immigration, English Votes for English Laws and the prevention of terrorism.

What would you like to see?

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